NNE Heart of Winter

[Hitman]

Rain all the way into Canada at this point.

any chance this trends better??? BTV makes it sound like its a done deal.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Forecast for all of northern Vermont and adjacent New Hampshire, including the cities of Burlington, Stowe, Montpelier, White River Junction, St. Johnsbury, Island Pond, Newport, Berlin, Littleton, North Conway, and Gorham:

Forecast Time: 0z 29 Feb 2012

Discussion:

Snow will overspread the North Country from southwest to northeast during the evening Wednesday, probably starting around 6pm in Burlington, Vermont to as late as 10pm in northern New Hampshire. It will be light in nature throughout the night as warm air advection advances in from the southwest and a slug of moisture streams south of the region between 18z Wednesday and 06z Thursday.

As a secondary low pressure system develops south of New Egland and the upper level low advances toward the region, snowfall rates will pick up around 03z Thursday in western parts of the region and 06z Thursday toward northern New Hampshire. Peak snowfall rates will be between 06z and 15z Thursday with peak rates as high as 1/2" per hour at times. Lighter snowfall will continue through 0z Friday in Burlington to 06z in northern New Hampshire.

Accumulations:

Accumulations will range from as little as 2"-4" in southeastern areas of the northeast kingdom in Vermont, the lower Champlain Valley in Vermont, and in Littleton, NH on the downwind side of the White Mountains. 4"-6" will fall in much of the lower elevations of north central Vermont and northern New Hampshire, with amounts as high as 8" above 2,500feet in both the Greens and the Whites.

Southern Vermont and New Hampshire should see 6"-10" where more concentrated precipitation prevails.

Selected city accumulations:

Burlington,VT: 2"-4"

Stowe village,VT: 4"-6"

Mt. Mansfield: 6"-8"

St. Johnsbury,VT: 2"-4"

Lyndonville,VT: 3"-5"

Berlin, NH: 4"-6"

Montpelier,VT: 4"-6"

Island Pond, VT: 3"-5"

Newport,VT: 3"-5"

Gorham,NH: 5"-7"

Accumulations subject to change with new data that comes in before the event. Will update when needed.

[ctsnowstorm628]

any chance this trends better??? BTV makes it sound like its a done deal.

probably not

[powderfreak]

Forecast for all of northern Vermont and adjacent New Hampshire, including the cities of Burlington, Stowe, Montpelier, White River Junction, St. Johnsbury, Island Pond, Newport, Berlin, Littleton, North Conway, and Gorham:

Forecast Time: 0z 29 Feb 2012

Discussion:

Snow will overspread the North Country from southwest to northeast during the evening Wednesday, probably starting around 6pm in Burlington, Vermont to as late as 10pm in northern New Hampshire. It will be light in nature throughout the night as warm air advection advances in from the southwest and a slug of moisture streams south of the region between 18z Wednesday and 06z Thursday.

As a secondary low pressure system develops south of New Egland and the upper level low advances toward the region, snowfall rates will pick up around 03z Thursday in western parts of the region and 06z Thursday toward northern New Hampshire. Peak snowfall rates will be between 06z and 15z Thursday with peak rates as high as 1/2" per hour at times. Lighter snowfall will continue through 0z Friday in Burlington to 06z in northern New Hampshire.

Accumulations:

Accumulations will range from as little as 2"-4" in southeastern areas of the northeast kingdom in Vermont, the lower Champlain Valley in Vermont, and in Littleton, NH on the downwind side of the White Mountains. 4"-6" will fall in much of the lower elevations of north central Vermont and northern New Hampshire, with amounts as high as 8" above 2,500feet in both the Greens and the Whites.

Southern Vermont and New Hampshire should see 6"-10" where more concentrated precipitation prevails.

Selected city accumulations:

Burlington,VT: 2"-4"

Stowe village,VT: 4"-6"

Mt. Mansfield: 6"-8"

St. Johnsbury,VT: 2"-4"

Lyndonville,VT: 3"-5"

Berlin, NH: 4"-6"

Montpelier,VT: 4"-6"

Island Pond, VT: 3"-5"

Newport,VT: 3"-5"

Gorham,NH: 5"-7"

Accumulations subject to change with new data that comes in before the event. Will update when needed.

Awesome forecast dude. I concur on everything. I've got 5-10" for the ski area right now and was thinking 3-6" in town.

This will be a bit different than recent events with long duration easterly flow...Allenson should do real good as this set up would favor the Orange Heights up towards Montpelier and Walden.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Awesome forecast dude. I concur on everything. I've got 5-10" for the ski area right now and was thinking 3-6" in town.

This will be a bit different than recent events with long duration easterly flow...Allenson should do real good as this set up would favor the Orange Heights up towards Montpelier and Walden.

Thanks! Yeah I think areas to the west of the CT river valley out toward you will get the relative 'jackpot' in northern VT. Areas on this SE side of the whites should do well too.

[Hitman]

probably not

Thanks. I have to move.

[ctsnowstorm628]

The 0z NAM only furthered my thinking that this will be an advisory type deal up here. total qpf over 36hrs is around 0.50-0.60" for alot of the region...With decent ratios we may be looking at a 5-8" snowfall when measured correctly, but only 3-5" on the ground at the end of the event due to compaction/melting, etc.

Hopefully the GFS comes in with some decent qpf as well. Overall, I think this will be a nice refresher snowfall with, as I've said all day, 3-6" valleys and up to 8" in the higher elevations. Will re-evaluate in the AM.

[borderwx]

-2F. dead calm. great sunrise. thankful.

[J.Spin]

BTV has put up Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the area. Totals have been bumped up a bit on their latest Storm Total Snowfall Forecast map (4:39 A.M.), but it now goes through 1:00 A.M. Friday so that may be part of it. The point forecast here calls for roughly 6 to 12 inches of snow through Thursday, with more potential Thursday Night and Friday, although that sounds a bit high based on Roger Hill’s broadcast this morning and some of the other forecasts I’ve heard. Graphics are below:

[Allenson]

Lookin' good, gents. I'm feeling our typical 'Corinth-six' here.

Got down into the singles last night while it was clear (and a very cool view of the moon & planets on the ellipse being chased by Orion) but back up into the teens now with heavy clouds.

[tamarack]

Low a bit below zero at my place, even with a few wispy clouds.

06z clown maps: GFS dumps about 12" IMBY, NAM closer to 3". GYX map has me at 2-4", better than a whiff. Hope the Sat rain is low on qpf - seems to be trending that way.

[hvysnow79]

Last time I walked by a window I noticed that we had some flurries/-SN slowly falling from the sky here in Lebanon.

[ctsnowstorm628]

About to do my final analysis. Updates soon.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Discussion is the same as I posted earlier.

Here are some updated forecasted totals:

Burlington,VT: 4"-6"

Stowe village,VT: 5"-7"

Mt. Mansfield: 8"-10"

St. Johnsbury,VT: 2"-4"

Lyndonville,VT: 4"-6"

Berlin, NH: 4"-6"

Montpelier,VT: 5"-7"

Island Pond, VT: 4"-6"

Newport,VT: 3"-5"

Gorham,NH: 5"-7"

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

Discussion is the same as I posted earlier.

Here are some updated forecasted totals:

Burlington,VT: 4"-6"

Stowe village,VT: 5"-7"

Mt. Mansfield: 8"-10"

St. Johnsbury,VT: 2"-4"

Lyndonville,VT: 4"-6"

Berlin, NH: 4"-6"

Montpelier,VT: 5"-7"

Island Pond, VT: 4"-6"

Newport,VT: 3"-5"

Gorham,NH: 5"-7"

I think after round 1 and 2 are all said and done, you may be a bit light on the New Hampshire and Eastern VT areas...I'd take your totals and boost them for Lyndonville, St. J, Montpelier, Gorham and Berlin by 30% or so.

[ctsnowstorm628]

I think after round 1 and 2 are all said and done, you may be a bit light on the New Hampshire and Eastern VT areas...I'd take your totals and boost them for Lyndonville, St. J, Montpelier, Gorham and Berlin by 30% or so.

Going conservative due to SE flow and shadowing by the whites. Hope I'm wrong. If there's no shadowing, 0.60qpf with 15:1 ratios yields 9" of snow for many. I'm contemplating raising St. J to 3-5" though.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Final Call for NNE:

Here are some updated forecasted totals:

Burlington,VT: 4"-6"

Stowe village,VT: 6"-8"

Mt. Mansfield: 8"-12"

St. Johnsbury,VT: 3"-5"

Lyndonville,VT: 4"-6"

Berlin, NH: 4"-6"

Montpelier,VT: 6"-8"

Island Pond, VT: 4"-6"

Newport,VT: 3"-5"

Gorham,NH: 6"-8"

[free_man]

1" down here in the low country. 28.8

[Allenson]

Final Call for NNE:

Here are some updated forecasted totals:

Burlington,VT: 4"-6"

Stowe village,VT: 6"-8"

Mt. Mansfield: 8"-12"

St. Johnsbury,VT: 3"-5"

Lyndonville,VT: 4"-6"

Berlin, NH: 4"-6"

Montpelier,VT: 6"-8"

Island Pond, VT: 4"-6"

Newport,VT: 3"-5"

Gorham,NH: 6"-8"

Hope you're right man. Nothing here yet outside of a few lazy flakes drifiting down from time to time. Seems like it's having a hard time making inroads into drier air...

[dryslot]

Gray went all in!

[ctsnowstorm628]

Hope you're right man. Nothing here yet outside of a few lazy flakes drifiting down from time to time. Seems like it's having a hard time making inroads into drier air...

We weren't ever supposed to get anything from the first round lol

[Allenson]

We weren't ever supposed to get anything from the first round lol

I know the low is still on its way--I was just wondering if the high was stronger than expected and potentially shoving things further south. I've certainly seen that sort of thing plenty of times before--where we're slated to get several inches and we end up on the northern fringe and happy with our half-inch.

The forecasts look promising, so I'll go with that for now.

[adk]

Final Call for NNE:

Here are some updated forecasted totals:

Burlington,VT: 4"-6"

Stowe village,VT: 6"-8"

Mt. Mansfield: 8"-12"

St. Johnsbury,VT: 3"-5"

Lyndonville,VT: 4"-6"

Berlin, NH: 4"-6"

Montpelier,VT: 6"-8"

Island Pond, VT: 4"-6"

Newport,VT: 3"-5"

Gorham,NH: 6"-8"

Feels right. Comports with my overall 6-12 for mountain regions.

High -five.

[OceanStWx]

I know the low is still on its way--I was just wondering if the high was stronger than expected and potentially shoving things further south. I've certainly seen that sort of thing plenty of times before--where we're slated to get several inches and we end up on the northern fringe and happy with our half-inch.

The forecasts look promising, so I'll go with that for now.

I think your biggest concern right now is saturation. Really low dewpoints in place thanks to that high, so it will take a while to bring those up. "Waste" some QPF if you will.

[wxeyeNH]

Just had to drive to Manchester and back. Hit a wall of snow just north of Exit 20 (Dendrites area). Snowed hard all the way down. Came back and came out of the wall of snow at the same place, just north of Northfield/Tilton. Nothing up here. I can look to my south and see the foothills obsured in snow but this first part will not make it to the NW Lakes region.

[klw]

Updated BTV maps

[ctsnowstorm628]

I know the low is still on its way--I was just wondering if the high was stronger than expected and potentially shoving things further south. I've certainly seen that sort of thing plenty of times before--where we're slated to get several inches and we end up on the northern fringe and happy with our half-inch.

The forecasts look promising, so I'll go with that for now.

I started conservative for a reason I do think the Littleton-St. J region could get short changed with a crappy 2-3" if we get shadowed enough. Honestly, don't beleive Gray's map if you're in the NEK and are trying to extrapolate it over to VT...they're going to bust way high near Littleton I think lol

Feels right. Comports with my overall 6-12 for mountain regions.

High -five.

lol Mansifeld seems to do well no matter what.

[ctsnowstorm628]

I think your biggest concern right now is saturation. Really low dewpoints in place thanks to that high, so it will take a while to bring those up. "Waste" some QPF if you will.

Shadowing by the Whites out this way? You guys went pretty gung ho..can you explain your reasoning? Thanks man!

[OceanStWx]

Shadowing by the Whites out this way? You guys went pretty gung ho..can you explain your reasoning? Thanks man!

I would if it was mine or had I been there, but these are my off days. Just enjoying things from home. My guess is gradients will start getting tightened up tonight as we recieve more reports about where it is and isn't accumulating so far.

There will definitely be some shadowing in the Whites. But if you are to believe the NAM and it's 70 kt LLJ, there will be significant upslope enhancement on the SE sides tomorrow morning.

[Allenson]

I think your biggest concern right now is saturation. Really low dewpoints in place thanks to that high, so it will take a while to bring those up. "Waste" some QPF if you will.

Thanks, pretty much what I was getting at but you put it in much better words.

And yeah, the Whites shadow bigtime in this kind of set up from Woodsville on up, along the valley floors. It's amazing how little snow places like Lancaster get a lot of times.