ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 This little storm worked out just as I thought maybe even overperformed slightly. 2.2" new here at the college puts us over 60" for the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 4-7" new snow at the mountain... still dumping. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31316-201112-ski-season-thread/page__view__findpost__p__1412185 Great weekend. http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/trip-reports/11-12/vtah-part-vi-the-most-highly-anticipated-snow-on-earth/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 0.4" last evening, windy this morning. Temp jumped 10F (from 18 to 28) between 5:30 and 6:30 as the wind began stirring things up. Town sanded our gravel road, unnecessarily; maybe they do this so they don't need to add gravel this summer? At least the truck crushed down the gravel bank heaped up by the grader on Saturday. Would be nice if the NAM verified (it won't), as other models appear to leave my area on the northern fringe of the good stuff. GYX not yet posting watches, because of the extended nature of the event (and lack of heavy snow rates, apparently.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 4-7" new snow at the mountain... still dumping. wow. Saw Kelleys tweets just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 0.4" last evening, windy this morning. Temp jumped 10F (from 18 to 28) between 5:30 and 6:30 as the wind began stirring things up. Town sanded our gravel road, unnecessarily; maybe they do this so they don't need to add gravel this summer? At least the truck crushed down the gravel bank heaped up by the grader on Saturday. Would be nice if the NAM verified (it won't), as other models appear to leave my area on the northern fringe of the good stuff. GYX not yet posting watches, because of the extended nature of the event (and lack of heavy snow rates, apparently.) This will end up being an advisory event throughout NNE. Probably a 3-5" in the valley, 5-7" above 1500ft kind of deal. BTV jumped the gun on issuing advisories IMO. Ill post up later what our VTRANS forecast looks like...probably tonight after we issue them officially. But our team isn't sold on more than maybe 7-8" up high and 5" down low with this...lack of qpf and snow rates is really putting us on edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 This will end up being an advisory event throughout NNE. Probably a 3-5" in the valley, 5-7" above 1500ft kind of deal. BTV jumped the gun on issuing advisories IMO. Ill post up later what our VTRANS forecast looks like...probably tonight after we issue them officially. But our team isn't sold on more than maybe 7-8" up high and 5" down low with this...lack of qpf and snow rates is really putting us on edge Well a watch is issued if they can go either Advisory or Warning. This is definitely an Advisory event for someone... not a warning though. I still can't believe we got 7" out of last night's POS clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well a watch is issued if they can go either Advisory or Warning. This is definitely an Advisory event for someone... not a warning though. I still can't believe we got 7" out of last night's POS clipper. Man, those shots make me insanely jealous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well a watch is issued if they can go either Advisory or Warning. This is definitely an Advisory event for someone... not a warning though. I still can't believe we got 7" out of last night's POS clipper. Man, N VT is the place to be right now! Get it while you can is a good motto. I was tempted to fly back east from Chicago this weekend, but weekend thaw and freeze is looking UGLY unless there's another huge upslope event on Sunday behind the deepening low to cover up the damage done on Saturday. Upslope snow looks like a possibility, but way too early to tell if it'll be a big one again or dust on crust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 With the 12z Euro printing out 0.4"-0.6" throughout NNE over 30hours, I really don't see many getting over 5" now. The Euro does have a dry bias, but man the precip shield is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Right behind you guys at the 60" mark. Just looked and I'm at 56.6". Should be able to get past 60" with this next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 With the 12z Euro printing out 0.4"-0.6" throughout NNE over 30hours, I really don't see many getting over 5" now. The Euro does have a dry bias, but man the precip shield is ugly. I don't trust that model when it comes to the terrain above 3000ft on the spine of VT. .6 on a model the resolution of the model is .75 to 1 inch of liquid in truth across the highest terrain of VT. Which has some fun stuff to ski: Seriously though. Low passing right overhead = Spine Pow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Right behind you guys at the 60" mark. Just looked and I'm at 56.6". Should be able to get past 60" with this next event. Nice! I know JSpin is over 100 but my crude tally puts me in the 95" range. I'm curious what jvt24 is at for the season. This last upslope event is the difference from this area and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Also ski patrol notified us that Stowe Emergency Management and Hazardous Terrain SAR has issue an Avalanche Warning for Mount Mansfield and Smugglers Notch area. Several slides have been reported with close calls including burials up to the neck. Last time one was issued was after Valentines Day 2007. Another hazard that has had close calls are tree wells. With 4-5 feet of unconsolidated snow falling in the past week, upper elevation forests are acting as snow traps with snow giving way near trees and causing folks to tumble into tree wells that are now up to 8 feet deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I don't trust that model when it comes to the terrain above 3000ft on the spine of VT. .6 on a model the resolution of the model is .75 to 1 inch of liquid in truth across the highest terrain of VT. Which has some fun stuff to ski: Seriously though. Low passing right overhead = Spine Pow. To be fair not a ton of people forecast or care what happens above 3,000ft. And I think if he forecasts for VTrans, then it's really irrelevant haha. I'm more focused on 1K-3K for the ski area but I mean 3-4K is always going to get a lot of snow and that's pretty much above the resort lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 To be fair not a ton of people forecast or care what happens above 3,000ft. And I think if he forecasts for VTrans, then it's really irrelevant haha. I'm more focused on 1K-3K for the ski area but I mean 3-4K is always going to get a lot of snow and that's pretty much above the resort lol. Right lol yeah I'll gladly forecast the roads leading to stowe Highest point I forecast for is Woodford,VT around 2500ft on Rt. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 New map from BTV looks to have lowered the expectations for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 New map from BTV looks to have lowered the expectations for most areas. As expected. Gonna be tough to get over 5" as I still think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice! I know JSpin is over 100 but my crude tally puts me in the 95" range. I'm curious what jvt24 is at for the season. This last upslope event is the difference from this area and further east. Amazing--Jay Peak is at 81" and Mansfield is at 101" (yeah, I know about the can). That's one magical snow globe in the Winooski valley. And yet there's more snow on the ground along 91 in Thetford that's only seen 35" this year than there is along 89 in Bolton. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Amazing--Jay Peak is at 81" and Mansfield is at 101" (yeah, I know about the can). That's one magical snow globe in the Winooski valley. And yet there's more snow on the ground along 91 in Thetford that's only seen 35" this year than there is along 89 in Bolton. Weird. Yeah you have to remember the Co-Ops are always going to be low...maybe it's the once a day thing I don't know but to me CoOp numbers at the end of the year sound low. And that Bolton cam is worlds different from Jspins area. I lived a half mile from that cam and it snows a lot and melts a lot at 300ft. The only place you can get like 90" in a season and never have more than a foot on the ground. But I do know JSpins area is much different and I was throughout there a week ago and snowpack went from like 8" at his place to nothing where that cam is. Underhill and West Slope communities are all like that though. They beat interior VT in snowfall but will see a lot of bare ground in the winter. Plus measuring upslope every 6 hours gets you a nice total. Personally I like using COCoRAHS instead of the co-ops...like last year Underhill had 220" on CoCoRAHS and more than Mansfield Co-op at the summit which we know to be about half of what actually falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Waiting on the GFS then issuing our forecast. Should be on here by 7pm-ish. Maybe making a map if I have some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice! I know JSpin is over 100 but my crude tally puts me in the 95" range. I'm curious what jvt24 is at for the season. This last upslope event is the difference from this area and further east. Total snowfall is 78.0" as of 0700 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Edit: just saw that klw had posted the map, but I'll leave it in for reference anyway. Below I’ve added the most recent (2:47 P.M.) Storm Total Snow Forecast map from the BTV NWS; at this point they’re going with a general 6 to 10 in most of the Greens except for the far north, and anticipated snow totals in the Southern Adirondacks look nice: WWUS41 KBTV 281947 WSWBTV URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-290400- /O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0002.120301T0000Z-120302T0000Z/ NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE- CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND- WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH... STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA... LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM... GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT... ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY... MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH... RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS... RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD... KILLINGTON 247 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER STORM WATCH...FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH UP TO 10 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL ALSO ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. && $$ MUCCILLI It looks like we’re continuing with a good wintry stretch in the near future – grabbed the latest Mt. Mansfield point forecast graphic as of this afternoon (3:19 P.M.): Mixed precipitation is anticipated to enter the picture with the Friday/Saturday system, which isn’t surprising with how far west the models have it. It’s hard to complain about this active wintry pattern though, barring any huge changes with what comes in tomorrow, that system at the beginning of the weekend is the first one with any mixed precipitation out of six storms. Like PF has said before, I’ll take the active weather pattern around here anytime over a dry one; the Greens will typically find a way to come out on top and the total liquid in the snowpack will build as long as there’s some moisture with which to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah you have to remember the Co-Ops are always going to be low...maybe it's the once a day thing I don't know but to me CoOp numbers at the end of the year sound low. Plus measuring upslope every 6 hours gets you a nice total. Personally I like using COCoRAHS instead of the co-ops...like last year Underhill had 220" on CoCoRAHS and more than Mansfield Co-op at the summit which we know to be about half of what actually falls. We can't really compare the two then. There has to be a uniform standard, otherwise it's apples, oranges & apricots. That's all I'm saying. Anyway, snow's on the way again, no need to pick the nit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Total snowfall is 78.0" as of 0700 this morning. Nice...I would've thought you were at least in the 80s though. How much did you get in this last storm? Weren't you like 65" before that? Edit...And my tally is very crude. Not like my measurements up at the mountain which I take a lot more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We can't really compare the two then. There has to be a uniform standard, otherwise it's apples, oranges & apricots. That's all I'm saying. Anyway, snow's on the way again, no need to pick the nit. Oh yeah it's certainly apples and oranges. But these are high class problems to have.. at least we have snow to measure and a lot of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 To be fair not a ton of people forecast or care what happens above 3,000ft. And I think if he forecasts for VTrans, then it's really irrelevant haha. I'm more focused on 1K-3K for the ski area but I mean 3-4K is always going to get a lot of snow and that's pretty much above the resort lol. All fair points. WERE I really forecasting for VTRANs I'd say that call of 5 is exactly in order. But for a few stretches on the gap roads 3-6 would make sense. 1.5 to 3k for the ski area- I'd say 6-10/12 would be the call cause I see it hard to think of a away the upper part of stowe doesn't get at least 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 All fair points. WERE I really forecasting for VTRANs I'd say that call of 5 is exactly in order. But for a few stretches on the gap roads 3-6 would make sense. 1.5 to 3k for the ski area- I'd say 6-10/12 would be the call cause I see it hard to think of a away the upper part of stowe doesn't get at least 8. Don't worry I'll give a nice update tonight. If anyone has forecast requests I can make them happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 How bad is saturday looking??? hate to be in NY with tons of fresh powder falling all week, only to drive up friday night to r^&*n on saturday. that would really bum me out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 How bad is saturday looking??? hate to be in NY with tons of fresh powder falling all week, only to drive up friday night to r^&*n on saturday. that would really bum me out Rain all the way into Canada at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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