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NNE Heart of Winter


Allenson

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0.4" last evening, windy this morning. Temp jumped 10F (from 18 to 28) between 5:30 and 6:30 as the wind began stirring things up. Town sanded our gravel road, unnecessarily; maybe they do this so they don't need to add gravel this summer? At least the truck crushed down the gravel bank heaped up by the grader on Saturday.

Would be nice if the NAM verified (it won't), as other models appear to leave my area on the northern fringe of the good stuff. GYX not yet posting watches, because of the extended nature of the event (and lack of heavy snow rates, apparently.)

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0.4" last evening, windy this morning. Temp jumped 10F (from 18 to 28) between 5:30 and 6:30 as the wind began stirring things up. Town sanded our gravel road, unnecessarily; maybe they do this so they don't need to add gravel this summer? At least the truck crushed down the gravel bank heaped up by the grader on Saturday.

Would be nice if the NAM verified (it won't), as other models appear to leave my area on the northern fringe of the good stuff. GYX not yet posting watches, because of the extended nature of the event (and lack of heavy snow rates, apparently.)

This will end up being an advisory event throughout NNE. Probably a 3-5" in the valley, 5-7" above 1500ft kind of deal. BTV jumped the gun on issuing advisories IMO. Ill post up later what our VTRANS forecast looks like...probably tonight after we issue them officially. But our team isn't sold on more than maybe 7-8" up high and 5" down low with this...lack of qpf and snow rates is really putting us on edge

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This will end up being an advisory event throughout NNE. Probably a 3-5" in the valley, 5-7" above 1500ft kind of deal. BTV jumped the gun on issuing advisories IMO. Ill post up later what our VTRANS forecast looks like...probably tonight after we issue them officially. But our team isn't sold on more than maybe 7-8" up high and 5" down low with this...lack of qpf and snow rates is really putting us on edge

Well a watch is issued if they can go either Advisory or Warning. This is definitely an Advisory event for someone... not a warning though.

I still can't believe we got 7" out of last night's POS clipper.

416852_10150556643792382_40145377381_9349705_2147057611_n.jpg

417494_10150556643642382_40145377381_9349702_1180298178_n.jpg

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Well a watch is issued if they can go either Advisory or Warning. This is definitely an Advisory event for someone... not a warning though.

I still can't believe we got 7" out of last night's POS clipper.

416852_10150556643792382_40145377381_9349705_2147057611_n.jpg

417494_10150556643642382_40145377381_9349702_1180298178_n.jpg

Man, N VT is the place to be right now! Get it while you can is a good motto. I was tempted to fly back east from Chicago this weekend, but weekend thaw and freeze is looking UGLY unless there's another huge upslope event on Sunday behind the deepening low to cover up the damage done on Saturday. Upslope snow looks like a possibility, but way too early to tell if it'll be a big one again or dust on crust.

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With the 12z Euro printing out 0.4"-0.6" throughout NNE over 30hours, I really don't see many getting over 5" now. The Euro does have a dry bias, but man the precip shield is ugly.

I don't trust that model when it comes to the terrain above 3000ft on the spine of VT. .6 on a model the resolution of the model is .75 to 1 inch of liquid in truth across the highest terrain of VT.

Which has some fun stuff to ski:

IMG_7472-2.jpg

Seriously though. Low passing right overhead = Spine Pow.

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Right behind you guys at the 60" mark. Just looked and I'm at 56.6".

Should be able to get past 60" with this next event.

Nice! I know JSpin is over 100 but my crude tally puts me in the 95" range. I'm curious what jvt24 is at for the season. This last upslope event is the difference from this area and further east.

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Also ski patrol notified us that Stowe Emergency Management and Hazardous Terrain SAR has issue an Avalanche Warning for Mount Mansfield and Smugglers Notch area. Several slides have been reported with close calls including burials up to the neck.

Last time one was issued was after Valentines Day 2007. Another hazard that has had close calls are tree wells. With 4-5 feet of unconsolidated snow falling in the past week, upper elevation forests are acting as snow traps with snow giving way near trees and causing folks to tumble into tree wells that are now up to 8 feet deep.

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I don't trust that model when it comes to the terrain above 3000ft on the spine of VT. .6 on a model the resolution of the model is .75 to 1 inch of liquid in truth across the highest terrain of VT.

Which has some fun stuff to ski:

IMG_7472-2.jpg

Seriously though. Low passing right overhead = Spine Pow.

To be fair not a ton of people forecast or care what happens above 3,000ft. And I think if he forecasts for VTrans, then it's really irrelevant haha. I'm more focused on 1K-3K for the ski area but I mean 3-4K is always going to get a lot of snow and that's pretty much above the resort lol.

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To be fair not a ton of people forecast or care what happens above 3,000ft. And I think if he forecasts for VTrans, then it's really irrelevant haha. I'm more focused on 1K-3K for the ski area but I mean 3-4K is always going to get a lot of snow and that's pretty much above the resort lol.

Right lol yeah I'll gladly forecast the roads leading to stowe ;) Highest point I forecast for is Woodford,VT around 2500ft on Rt. 9

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Nice! I know JSpin is over 100 but my crude tally puts me in the 95" range. I'm curious what jvt24 is at for the season. This last upslope event is the difference from this area and further east.

Amazing--Jay Peak is at 81" and Mansfield is at 101" (yeah, I know about the can). That's one magical snow globe in the Winooski valley.

And yet there's more snow on the ground along 91 in Thetford that's only seen 35" this year than there is along 89 in Bolton. Weird.

:popcorn:

post-2284-0-80376600-1330463025.jpg

post-2284-0-82017400-1330463033.jpg

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Amazing--Jay Peak is at 81" and Mansfield is at 101" (yeah, I know about the can). That's one magical snow globe in the Winooski valley.

And yet there's more snow on the ground along 91 in Thetford that's only seen 35" this year than there is along 89 in Bolton. Weird.

:popcorn:

Yeah you have to remember the Co-Ops are always going to be low...maybe it's the once a day thing I don't know but to me CoOp numbers at the end of the year sound low. And that Bolton cam is worlds different from Jspins area. I lived a half mile from that cam and it snows a lot and melts a lot at 300ft. The only place you can get like 90" in a season and never have more than a foot on the ground. But I do know JSpins area is much different and I was throughout there a week ago and snowpack went from like 8" at his place to nothing where that cam is.

Underhill and West Slope communities are all like that though. They beat interior VT in snowfall but will see a lot of bare ground in the winter. Plus measuring upslope every 6 hours gets you a nice total. Personally I like using COCoRAHS instead of the co-ops...like last year Underhill had 220" on CoCoRAHS and more than Mansfield Co-op at the summit which we know to be about half of what actually falls.

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Edit: just saw that klw had posted the map, but I'll leave it in for reference anyway.

Below I’ve added the most recent (2:47 P.M.) Storm Total Snow Forecast map from the BTV NWS; at this point they’re going with a general 6 to 10 in most of the Greens except for the far north, and anticipated snow totals in the Southern Adirondacks look nice:

28FEB12B.jpg

WWUS41 KBTV 281947

WSWBTV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

247 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-290400-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0002.120301T0000Z-120302T0000Z/

NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-

SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-

WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-

WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-

CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-

WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...

STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...

LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...

GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...

ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...

MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...

RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...

KILLINGTON

247 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING

THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

STORM WATCH...FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION

OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH UP TO

10 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE

ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF

ICE IS POSSIBLE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND

BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MIXED

PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW

YORK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

CONDITIONS. MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL

ALSO ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

$$

MUCCILLI

It looks like we’re continuing with a good wintry stretch in the near future – grabbed the latest Mt. Mansfield point forecast graphic as of this afternoon (3:19 P.M.):

28FEB12C.jpg

Mixed precipitation is anticipated to enter the picture with the Friday/Saturday system, which isn’t surprising with how far west the models have it. It’s hard to complain about this active wintry pattern though, barring any huge changes with what comes in tomorrow, that system at the beginning of the weekend is the first one with any mixed precipitation out of six storms. Like PF has said before, I’ll take the active weather pattern around here anytime over a dry one; the Greens will typically find a way to come out on top and the total liquid in the snowpack will build as long as there’s some moisture with which to work.

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Yeah you have to remember the Co-Ops are always going to be low...maybe it's the once a day thing I don't know but to me CoOp numbers at the end of the year sound low.

Plus measuring upslope every 6 hours gets you a nice total. Personally I like using COCoRAHS instead of the co-ops...like last year Underhill had 220" on CoCoRAHS and more than Mansfield Co-op at the summit which we know to be about half of what actually falls.

We can't really compare the two then. There has to be a uniform standard, otherwise it's apples, oranges & apricots. That's all I'm saying.

Anyway, snow's on the way again, no need to pick the nit. ;)

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Total snowfall is 78.0" as of 0700 this morning.

Nice...I would've thought you were at least in the 80s though. How much did you get in this last storm? Weren't you like 65" before that?

Edit...And my tally is very crude. Not like my measurements up at the mountain which I take a lot more seriously.

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We can't really compare the two then. There has to be a uniform standard, otherwise it's apples, oranges & apricots. That's all I'm saying.

Anyway, snow's on the way again, no need to pick the nit. ;)

Oh yeah it's certainly apples and oranges. But these are high class problems to have.. at least we have snow to measure and a lot of it ;)

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To be fair not a ton of people forecast or care what happens above 3,000ft. And I think if he forecasts for VTrans, then it's really irrelevant haha. I'm more focused on 1K-3K for the ski area but I mean 3-4K is always going to get a lot of snow and that's pretty much above the resort lol.

All fair points. WERE I really forecasting for VTRANs I'd say that call of 5 is exactly in order. But for a few stretches on the gap roads 3-6 would make sense.

1.5 to 3k for the ski area- I'd say 6-10/12 would be the call cause I see it hard to think of a away the upper part of stowe doesn't get at least 8.

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All fair points. WERE I really forecasting for VTRANs I'd say that call of 5 is exactly in order. But for a few stretches on the gap roads 3-6 would make sense.

1.5 to 3k for the ski area- I'd say 6-10/12 would be the call cause I see it hard to think of a away the upper part of stowe doesn't get at least 8.

Don't worry I'll give a nice update tonight. If anyone has forecast requests I can make them happen ;)

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