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NNE Heart of Winter


Allenson

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New 18Z NAM is quite a change after many model runs or the same old stuff. First thump for NNE then a good lull and then secondary really gets cranking with some good QPF (which has been lacking). If the 18Z would be correct then some 6-12" amounts are not out of the question. Interesting run.

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I think that BTV map is a mistake. I would trust the wording of the warning as to what they think is going to take place. At least that's what I keep telling myself.

Edit: map was just corrected. Have a look, dudes.

Yeah, more what I would expect based on the Winter Storm Warning:

23FEB12E.jpg

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Had a little pea sized hail at CON this afternoon. 39F now up here.

The 18z NAM is interesting, but I have a bad feeling that we sorta fail tomorrow with only light amounts from the WAA and then the secondary never really gets its act together in time.

Probably right but its fun to watch right now at least till the GFS comes in. Rather the NAM trend this way than the other way. Gives the SNE guys something to be excited about.

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Had a little pea sized hail at CON this afternoon. 39F now up here.

The 18z NAM is interesting, but I have a bad feeling that we sorta fail tomorrow with only light amounts from the WAA and then the secondary never really gets its act together in time.

In that case BTV is fooked.... I think it'll be a 2-3" deal in the morning with a lull in between then another 2-4" deal at night with maybe up to 6" if things go right. So probably a 5-8" total deal I think at 1000' in northern vt with upwards of 12" at summits not including upslope.

With jay reporting 11" yesterday and another 12-15" tomorrow and the upslope, the spine could end up with three day totals on the order of 30-40".

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Had a little pea sized hail at CON this afternoon. 39F now up here.

The 18z NAM is interesting, but I have a bad feeling that we sorta fail tomorrow with only light amounts from the WAA and then the secondary never really gets its act together in time.

Well, at least I can record another trace for the month of February, believe thats number 9 on the month. Very low confidence on how much we really get in the CON area IMO. Looking better for areas of GC than it does around here. HPC going with about a 85-90% chance of >2" here, 95-100% up towards you, and for >4" im around 60-70% while your maybe 70-75%. When the Euro is going againt the nam/gfs/sref's I usually go with what HPC has to say, because honestly I'm not really to sure what to expect with this event.

Also they seem to think Pete and MPM see a decent glaze of zr along with areas to the southwest of Albany and in the Whites of NNH.

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In that case BTV is fooked.... I think it'll be a 2-3" deal in the morning with a lull in between then another 2-4" deal at night with maybe up to 6" if things go right. So probably a 5-8" total deal I think at 1000' in northern vt with upwards of 12" at summits not including upslope.

With jay reporting 11" yesterday and another 12-15" tomorrow and the upslope, the spine could end up with three day totals on the order of 30-40".

I'm not too worried... I still think a solid 6-10" is the way to go up north. UKMET/GGEM/RGEM/NAM/ECM all show the secondary getting its act together quick enough and all seem to have decent snowfall up north.

I think the timing now though is pushed back. I doubt we see much happen before noon up north. I mean, UKMET and GGEM have heaviest falling from 00z to 06z Saturday.

UKMET is pretty solid tomorrow afternoon and night.

f36.gif

f42.gif

f48.gif

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Yeah we've been seeing some intense periods of snow squall type weather over the past 1-2 hours. Snowing hard again here now.

I'm obviously not there,but from what I see it looks nice. Higher elevations and resorts look like they're finally getting the breaks they wanted/needed this week. Even lower elevations are getting a refresher.

Looks like summits could see 30"+ total if things break right with the secondary and upslope stuff goes well.

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Yeah, I've had limited data access on my iPod/cell phone recently. Just did the beat analysis I could and it still seems like maybe a 5-8" below 1000' and 8-10" above 1000'.

Lots of models all of a sudden liking the coastal idea. Man, figures when I'm in Florida... Lol

I think any WAA snow tomorrow AM is bonus IMO. Models have weakened that energy considerably over the last few runs an focused alot on the secondary system.

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It dumped overnight...

The snow is too high on the stake so its not 8"... dropping a measuring tape into it revealed an average of 7.5" on the board overnight.

lol... somehow 4,000ft only got 4.5" last night but 3,000ft got 7.5"...

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
539 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012
STATION			PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT		 SNOW
			   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER	 NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD	 0.42	29  21  21				4.5  53

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.23” L.E.

I wasn’t sure if we were going to get any accumulating snow down at our elevation with this second system, but we picked up some this evening. When I was leaving Burlington a bit after 5:00 P.M. today, there were some breaks in the clouds, but still a few spits of precipitation. I saw a bit more as I headed into the mountains, and clouds dancing among the peaks looked like they were dropping something, but once I passed the town of Bolton and the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road, the precipitation really kicked in. For several minutes it was snowing quite intensely, and although I could tell that the flakes had a lot to them, they weren’t huge. It turns out that it was because many of them were large graupel balls – pretty impressive ones in the ¼” diameter range. When I checked the snowboard at 6:00 P.M. there was 0.5” of new accumulation, with some slushy snow but also lots of those huge graupel balls in there.

With the addition of this event, February snowfall at this location now stands at 7.2”, and it’s amazing to think that almost 40” more would be required to get this February to even average status based on the 5 years worth of snowfall data I’ve collected. Another interesting note is that in all the Dec, Jan, Feb snowfall data I have collected since 2006 (17 months) the leanest month up to this point is December 2006 with 20.2” of snow. February 2012 has definitely been in the running to claim that low spot, however this next storm may help depending on how it plays out. The current point forecast here calls for 5-9” through tomorrow night, with additional snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.5

Snow Density: 8.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.4 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

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I noticed that in their update this evening the NWS bumped the point forecast for this area a bit to 5-11” through Friday night, with adjustment to 6-12” for the higher elevations. I’ve added the latest projected accumulations map and Winter Storm Warning text below:

23FEB12J.jpg

WWUS41 KBTV 240248

WSWBTV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

948 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019-241100-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0003.120224T0900Z-120225T1200Z/

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-WINDSOR-

EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...

STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...

UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

948 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO

7 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

STORM WARNING...FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTH...WITH

SNOW HEAVIEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

UPSLOPE SNOW INTO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH

FRIDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...AREA ROADWAYS WILL BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SLICK

CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY

HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

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I’ve added the latest BTV NWS advisories and warnings maps, and their updated Storm Total Forecast Map below:

24FEB12A.jpg

24FEB12B.jpg

Our current point forecast hasn’t really changed that much from what I’ve been seeing, it sums to 6 to 12 inches, but that now includes Saturday, and the Friday/Friday night section is still in that 5 to 9 inch range. With the higher numbers shown in the mountains now on the Storm Total Forecast Map, presumably they are incorporating some of the upslope snow.

It was very interesting to hear Roger Hill downplay the storm during his entire broadcast, so clearly he’s not liking what he’s seeing. He said that today the snow would start around midday, and be wet and mixed with rain in the valleys. He thinks that there will be a couple inches of accumulation, but that would even be a stretch for some of the valleys. Tonight he’s going with 2 to 4 inches of additional snow accumulation, and then tomorrow a dusting to 2 inches. So if one adds up those numbers, for the valleys it sounds like he’s going with 4 to 8 inches through Saturday. That is a bit lower than what the NWS has for our location through that period, but not all that different from my perspective. He also indicated that totals would be notably higher in the mountains, but didn’t give numbers there. I’m not sure what Roger’s original forecast was, but he says this storm is a “fizzler”.

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It definitely has large bust potential.

Indeed, listening to Roger Hill this morning (see my post above), apparently it’s already busted or “fizzled” from what he was thinking (not sure what that was though). He seemed really focused on the front end of the storm in his broadcast though, and didn’t really talk about the upslope/backside component.

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It was very interesting to hear Roger Hill downplay the storm during his entire broadcast, so clearly he’s not liking what he’s seeing. He said that today the snow would start around midday, and be wet and mixed with rain in the valleys. He thinks that there will be a couple inches of accumulation, but that would even be a stretch for some of the valleys. Tonight he’s going with 2 to 4 inches of additional snow accumulation, and then tomorrow a dusting to 2 inches. So if one adds up those numbers, for the valleys it sounds like he’s going with 4 to 8 inches through Saturday. That is a bit lower than what the NWS has for our location through that period, but not all that different from my perspective. He also indicated that totals would be notably higher in the mountains, but didn’t give numbers there. I’m not sure what Roger’s original forecast was, but he says this storm is a “fizzler”.

I could see that though for the lower elevations it really doesn't look all that inspiring. The synopic WAA snows sort of crapped the bed... instead of seeing that slug of 0.5"+ QPF come up from the south, we are now relying on a few different rounds of precipitation. I've already said here at the mountain it wouldn't surprise me if the town only got 3-4" with 18" at the summit.

The valleys will be marginal and the bulk of the precipitation is actually upslope on the backside. So if you are outside of the upslope region, this storm could underwhelm. I still really like the upslope signal and think the Spine gets clocked... through early afternoon tomorrow. I think its ripping mid morning tomorrow.

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I could see that though for the lower elevations it really doesn't look all that inspiring. The synopic WAA snows sort of crapped the bed... instead of seeing that slug of 0.5"+ QPF come up from the south, we are now relying on a few different rounds of precipitation. I've already said here at the mountain it wouldn't surprise me if the town only got 3-4" with 18" at the summit.

The valleys will be marginal and the bulk of the precipitation is actually upslope on the backside. So if you are outside of the upslope region, this storm could underwhelm. I still really like the upslope signal and think the Spine gets clocked... through early afternoon tomorrow. I think its ripping mid morning tomorrow.

Can you explain upslope and why Vt gets hammered while Sugarloaf doesnt?

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Winds blowing along the surface hit the Green Mountains and are forced to rise (orographic lift). The rising causes cooling which, in turn, causes any moisture in the air to condense and form clouds/precipitation.

Any wind from the west or northwest has a pretty much horizontal trajectory until it gets forced vertical by the Green Mountains. Also, the northern end of Mount Mansfield forms a natural funnel through Smuggler's Notch that helps focus the condensation.

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Winds blowing along the surface hit the Green Mountains and are forced to rise (orographic lift). The rising causes cooling which, in turn, causes any moisture in the air to condense and form clouds/precipitation.

Any wind from the west or northwest has a pretty much horizontal trajectory until it gets forced vertical by the Green Mountains. Also, the northern end of Mount Mansfield forms a natural funnel through Smuggler's Notch that helps focus the condensation.

I think the fact that the Greens have a more concentrated "spine" helps. Forcing is occurring at one location rather than more scattered high terrain of western Maine. I also don't think the ridge-valley-ridge helps in Sugarloaf's case either. Some of that moisture is squeezed out before it reaches the mountain.

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