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NNE Heart of Winter


Allenson

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There could be some icy spots around. It's a hair below freezing here with precip in the area.

After reaching the mid-40s yesterday, we dropped down to 32 last night (still there now) and some (freezing) rain moved in thereafter. Our front steps are very icey this morning...almost took a spill with an armload of wood. :whistle:

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Had light ZR and upper 20s at 6:45 when I left the house, and hit steady RA with mid 30s in AUG, some 35 dbz stuuf, which has now moved to the NE. Temps were still 30-31 in the foothills last time I checked wunderground obs.

AFD from GYX has the heavier precip from tomorrow's 1st system staying south, then the secondary pops too far to our east. However, the 2 grazes could end up boosting my Feb snow by about 10X. However, the 06z gfs has lost (or warmed) most of the weenie systems they had yesterday out past day 5.

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Holy sh*t did it dump on the mountain last night. From 2,000ft on up there is 5-8" of new snow.

At my 3,000ft snow study area...

High Road Snow Plot

3,014ft

New Snow: 7.5"

Snow Depth: 46"

Just wait till you see the pictures later... haha. One of the most beautiful caking snowfalls ever and a blast to ski in. Feels a lot deeper than 7.5" but that's cause its dense but not wet per se.

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Holy sh*t did it dump on the mountain last night. From 2,000ft on up there is 5-8" of new snow.

At my 3,000ft snow study area...

High Road Snow Plot

3,014ft

New Snow: 7.5"

Snow Depth: 46"

Just wait till you see the pictures later... haha. One of the most beautiful caking snowfalls ever and a blast to ski in. Feels a lot deeper than 7.5" but that's cause its dense but not wet per se.

SWEEET!. Now, we need some more cake tomorrow and the powder icing on the cake tomorrow night into Saturday. Any thoughts on the upslope potential?

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Holy sh*t did it dump on the mountain last night. From 2,000ft on up there is 5-8" of new snow.

At my 3,000ft snow study area...

High Road Snow Plot

3,014ft

New Snow: 7.5"

Snow Depth: 46"

Just wait till you see the pictures later... haha. One of the most beautiful caking snowfalls ever and a blast to ski in. Feels a lot deeper than 7.5" but that's cause its dense but not wet per se.

They keep uping the snow total at whiteface, reports of 6 inches at the base and 12+ up top:

potd.jpg

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Had light ZR and upper 20s at 6:45 when I left the house, and hit steady RA with mid 30s in AUG, some 35 dbz stuuf, which has now moved to the NE. Temps were still 30-31 in the foothills last time I checked wunderground obs.

AFD from GYX has the heavier precip from tomorrow's 1st system staying south, then the secondary pops too far to our east. However, the 2 grazes could end up boosting my Feb snow by about 10X. However, the 06z gfs has lost (or warmed) most of the weenie systems they had yesterday out past day 5.

What a surprise. I knew better then to get my hopes up.

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There’s was no new snow overnight to report down at the house (495’), but we did pick up 0.19” of liquid, which of course meant another round of snow for the mountains. Stowe had a nice early 6:00 A.M. report in of 5-6” fresh up high (thanks PF if that was you), so it was easy to make the call to grab some turns at Bolton on the way in to Burlington. It was interesting to find that it was actually snowing way down at the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road (340’), but there was just a skiff of new white there. In fact, the snow line for getting into to good snow is actually pretty high. Even up at 1,000’ on the access road I’d say there wasn’t much more than a dusting, and there was probably only an inch up at the Timberline Base at 1,500’. In the Village at 2,100’ I found 2-3” of new snow on the ground, although that might be the accumulation from the last two days because the cars that appeared to have spent the night in the lot probably had an inch or so on them. I skinned up for an early run before they fired up the lifts, and the depth of new snow started to climb pretty quickly; I found 4-5” at ~2,500’ and 5-6” around 3,000’ with pockets up to 7”. I’m assuming those are two-day depths with the resort reporting just 2 inches overnight. The snow was great, I’d say standard medium-weight stuff on most of the upper mountain, and I was detecting just a bit of thickening in the last couple hundred feet above the main base. Definitely staying high was the way to go with the steep elevation dependence of the snow, so I did a couple of laps of the Vista Quad and there was no need to head down to Timberline. I’ve added one shot from this morning at Wilderness:

23FEB12C.jpg

On the way into Burlington, there were actually pockets of accumulation in the valley, with a decent coating in Richmond, and another good coating at the I-89 rest area in Williston. There were even a few pockets of accumulation visible here at UVM.

Below is the north to south list of 48-hour totals reported by the Vermont ski areas, which covers the first two small systems of this stretch. The northern resorts on the spine have clearly been getting hit, and the north to south trend is pretty evident omitting Burke (48 hr total = 1”), which is off the spine:

Jay Peak: 11”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 8”

Bolton Valley: 5”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 5”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 2”

Bromley: 2”

Magic Mountain: 4”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 2”

It looks like the snowfall totals will continue to rise, since Winter Storm Watches are now up for all of BTV’s forecast area, with some moderate snow totals expected. I see that the latest projected accumulations map was added above, but I’ve added the map with the watches below:

23FEB12A.jpg

In his broadcast this morning Roger Hill said that things were looking good for the mountains, and while temperatures in the valleys would be more marginal, they weren’t far away from the lower elevations getting a decent dump as well. Our point forecast from the NWS has 3 to 5 inches during the day tomorrow, so apparently they’re thinking it will be cold enough for some snow in the lower valleys.

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For some reason I'm not feeling it with this one. Absolutely no meteorological reasoning (as I possess very little), it just has bust written all over it. The BTV map has me in the 4-6 range and I will be very happy if we get that much, I just think that this winter has me doubting everything until I have to shovel it. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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Thanks for the Stowe accumulations update PF; I see that it was updated on the Stowe web page so I edited it in my post of ski area accumulations above. There are already some nice accumulations down with the two appetizer systems, if the third one pans out it’s going to be a great weekend on the slopes.

P.S. – I just noticed that Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been put up with 6 to 10 inches of snow being called for in the warning area, although it looks like the anticipated accumulations map still needs to be updated.

23FEB12D.jpg

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

300 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019-241000-

/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0001.120224T0900Z-120225T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0003.120224T0900Z-120225T1200Z/

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-WINDSOR-

EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...

STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...

UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

300 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST

SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTH...WITH

SNOW HEAVIEST DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON

HOURS. UPSLOPE SNOW INTO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON

FRIDAY...AREA ROADWAYS WILL BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SLICK

CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY

HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...

AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

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New 18z NAM is like the 12z ECM in that our snowfall up here is a lot later than it was looking before. Now its mostly a Friday evening and overnight event.

Yeah, I just looked at the WunderMap snowfall output from the 12Z ECMWF, one can see the way that upslope snow just keeps hanging around as the system pulls northeast; snow is falling for close to 36 hrs (~1:00 P.M. EDT Friday to ~10:00 P.M. EDT Saturday) in that solution. That could make for a good weekend on the slopes assuming winds don’t mess with the snow/lifts excessively.

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