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NNE Heart of Winter


Allenson

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I dropped from 33 something to my current 28.7F very quickly and its still coming down at a good clip. Really didn't pay attention to tonights weather, thought a few flurries or sprinkles and that would be it.

Temps jumped up 4F in the last hr with winds out of the SW, Precip is almost here shouold cool back down once it starts

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Half inch of new snow so far... snowing steadily and its nice to see. Just drove home on snow covered roads... been a while for that, too, haha.

Another band looks to be developing and moving through... hopefully we can top 1.0".

J.Spin's area on I-89 near the county line looks to be in the thick of it for the past half hour to an hour.

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Half inch of new snow so far... snowing steadily and its nice to see. Just drove home on snow covered roads... been a while for that, too, haha.

Another band looks to be developing and moving through... hopefully we can top 1.0".

J.Spin's area on I-89 near the county line looks to be in the thick of it for the past half hour to an hour.

Yep, we’re definitely getting into it as those 30 db echoes come through; I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s inch an hour snowfall out there – I’ll do an analysis before I head off to bed.

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Nice Dryslot and Dendrite...

model runs are looking good for NNE snowfall... 00z NAM and GFS have 0.25-0.5" QPF here on Thursday morning, then another 0.5-0.75" on Friday, followed by some upslope. It may be a very snowy 48 hour period if those solutions pan out.

This one on Thursday morning is coming out of no where before the main event on Friday:

GFS at 36 hours (15z Thursday):

gfs_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

NAM at 36 hours (15z Thursday):

nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.05” L.E.

Another band looks to be developing and moving through... hopefully we can top 1.0".

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that’s possible. It didn’t start accumulating here until ~10:20 P.M., and as of 11:00 P.M. there was 1.3” on the snowboard, so that comes out to just shy of 2”/hr snowfall. That push of 30 db echoes crashing into the spine was pretty cool on the radar:

21FEB12A.gif

The snowfall has certainly slowed down from that blitz at this point, but there’s an additional 0.4” on the board as of ~11:30 P.M., so this event has provided at least 1.5” in this area. It’s interesting to note that the liquid equivalent was exactly the same here as Dendrite reported, with presumably a bit of extra loft from the big flakes. I’ll do the next analysis with my morning observations.

Some details from the 11:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 1.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 26.0

Snow Density: 3.8% H2O

Temperature: 31.3 F

Sky: Snow (2-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

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Nice Dryslot and Dendrite...

model runs are looking good for NNE snowfall... 00z NAM and GFS have 0.25-0.5" QPF here on Thursday morning, then another 0.5-0.75" on Friday, followed by some upslope. It may be a very snowy 48 hour period if those solutions pan out.

This one on Thursday morning is coming out of no where before the main event on Friday:

GFS at 36 hours (15z Thursday):

gfs_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

NAM at 36 hours (15z Thursday):

nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

The one for thurs looks better up north then here but I am starting to like the Friday event if we can get the euro on board

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It's on. I'm going out on a limb and saying that from 12:01 today wednesday, through 11:59 pm sunday te Green spine is going to get 20-24 inches of new snow. I really like the way all of this has trended. Tomorrow's event looks fatter and should bring summit totals ranging from 4-8 inches. Friday-sat event looks very good for producing totals in the 8-14 range and with lingering snow showers in it's wake sat into sunday I think another 3-4 inches are reasonable.

So get your ski gear on and get going. oh and don't tell the gapers.

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0.5" here overnight. I went out for a load of wood around 11pm last night and it was coming down quite hard. It must've stopped fairly soon after that because there isn't much more out there this morning than there was last night. That being said, it's snowing lightly again this morning. Nice to see.

Two more tenths and I'll reach the mighty 50" for the season. Come on baby! :clap:

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Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.06” L.E.

There’s no additional snow accumulation to report beyond what I observed last night, but with the temperature climbing above freezing down here in the bottom of the Winooski Valley, this was definitely a snowfall to catch as it happened. The new snow has already consolidated back to down to probably ½” or so at this elevation. Roger Hill commented in his morning broadcast on how this event didn’t hit Burlington, but even just a few miles to the west of our location there’s nothing on the ground. I wasn’t paying attention to the exact cutoff point for snow, but Jonesville is bare as viewed from I-89. Looking at the Bolton Flats Cameras as of 6:30 A.M., I can see that there is accumulation near the town of Bolton, so presumably the cutoff for snow accumulation is somewhere between Bolton and Jonesville:

22FEB12A.jpg

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 33.4 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

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It's on. I'm going out on a limb and saying that from 12:01 today wednesday, through 11:59 pm sunday te Green spine is going to get 20-24 inches of new snow. I really like the way all of this has trended. Tomorrow's event looks fatter and should bring summit totals ranging from 4-8 inches. Friday-sat event looks very good for producing totals in the 8-14 range and with lingering snow showers in it's wake sat into sunday I think another 3-4 inches are reasonable.

So get your ski gear on and get going. oh and don't tell the gapers.

Man you go ballz to the wallz sometimes! I used to forecast like that but have noticed I've gotten much more conservative lately. Hope I'm not getting jaded in operations or something. I'm thinking 2-4" tonight and tomorrow morning, then 6"+ Friday and Saturday with a shot the ski area gets 12"+ by Saturday night. 20-24" would be nice.

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Man you go ballz to the wallz sometimes! I used to forecast like that but have noticed I've gotten much more conservative lately. Hope I'm not getting jaded in operations or something. I'm thinking 2-4" tonight and tomorrow morning, then 6"+ Friday and Saturday with a shot the ski area gets 12"+ by Saturday night. 20-24" would be nice.

Sometimes you gotta put your poker chips in the center and go with your gut. I'm almost certain that along the Mansfield ridge, above 3000 feet we're looking a 2-3 from today, 3-5 for tomorrow, 6-8 on friday and then another 5 -7 or so from upslope all the day saturday and sunday. That's not unreasonable given the climo of mansfield. YOu and I have seen that mountain just pull a snow out it's butt more than once. Also- with that -10c isotherm punching through on saturday into sunday we're going to up the fluff factor.

For a more widespread geographic forecast on FIS I went with 8 to 16 inches from Friday thru sunday. Here my 20-24 is for the very summits of the spine. Those special places that just always make a pow.

and hey- look at the high res 48 hr precip from last night at 00z thru friday 0z before the main storm hits:

post-1429-0-60048100-1329915367.gif

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0.4" between 11:30P and 1A, which triples my Feb total and brings it up to a tie with 3/10 for my lowest snowfall in a winter month (counting March as winter) back thru 1973. Most I saw on cocorahs was 1.8" in Dresden, about 20 miles south of AUG, which got about an inch. However, I've lost my lead among regular Maine posters, as Jeff's 1.0" has him streaking ahead by 0.2". ;)

Looks good ATM for plowable snow from the Fri-Sat system. Our road hasn't needed plowing in over 3 weeks, though for some reason they came this morning and sanded the low-use (maybe 10 cars a day) gravel road because of the 0.4" - crews getting bored, I guess.

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1" at LSC last night.

I'm in florida now, but trends look really really nice for the Friday event. Gonna try to take some time away from frolicking in the sunny 80F weather to check some models tonight. If I have time ill make a quick forecast.

Good thing this storm is trending,because if this doesn't work out LSC's snowpack would have been all gone by 2/27.

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Seems like lots of benchmark numbers were attained with the crippling snowstorm last night. My 0.9" lifted me past the 40" barrier.

*fistpump*

The 1.2" at the WFO could not catapult us past the 50" mark however. Only 6.5" below normal (down 24.4" if you take the snowfall totals from 12/1 though ;) ).

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