NNE Heart of Winter

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.04” L.E.

When I checked the snow on the snowboard this evening, it had that obvious look of fluff that had undergone substantial settling, and the liquid from the core suggests that’s what happened. This evening’s stack contained roughly the same amount of liquid as this morning’s, but with ~1/3 the snow depth. So assuming the flakes had stayed at the size they were this morning, the accumulation might have been a bit more if measured at maximum depth, but 0.3” of additional snow will go into the books for today’s round of accumulation.

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 26.1 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

[J.Spin]

PF, I saw the commemorative snippet below in a sidebar at AccuWeather today, and grabbed it because I know that the 2007 Valentine’s Day Storm is one of your favorites:

I also found the NNE observations thread for the event over at Eastern, it’s really neat to see so many of the folks on there that are still active in the forum:

http://www.easternus...and-obs-thread/

[ineedsnow]

If any of you want a beautiful place to stay in the eastern townships of Quebec the people that bought my grandfathers old house are renting it out.. You cant see his new house but its right next door its an amazing place and epic in winter and summer

http://www.cottagesquebec.com/FicheChalet.aspx?pc=1&il=0&ip=QC&ir=0&ss=0&ms=0&be=2&ds=99999&sn=2&ch=0&fu=2&sp=2&cl=-1&di=0&dd=13022012&da=13022012&ta=0&pmi=0&pma=0&ar=l&IdChalet=7632&nbc=0&cc=0&ls=0&ld=0&lq=0&lk=0&sb=0&an=2&fy=2π=2&pl=5&tr=louer

[powderfreak]

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.04” L.E.

I agree you probably would have had a bit more if it didn't settle all day long. So by your calculations there, this is almost exactly 30:1 ratio snow, which is about what I was guessing on the mountain. I know folks probably don't like just guessing at ratios, but I'm in the snow all day everyday, and feel like I've got a pretty decent idea on densities... yesterday was fluff.

Again, the Mansfield observations have what I would assume is the correct liquid, given 3" of snow on the snow board in a relatively calm environment at 3,000ft. 0.12" = 3.0" is not too hard to imagine given co-op and CoCoRAHS observations yesterday. However, up at 4,000ft in the gale, high winds must result in the less than 10:1 ratio often observed up here. I've been keeping a sort of quasi-tally in my head, and their snow:liquid ratio rarely seems to go above 10:1 which must have something to do with the environment up there. Given that the BTV CWA average is like 13-14:1 during the winter months (I'm pretty sure I've seen that mentioned in their AFDs), it is interesting that the Mansfield Co-Op seems to average pretty much a straight 10:1.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
536 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
STATION			PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT		 SNOW
			   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER	 NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD	 0.12	13 -10  11   LIGHT FOG	1.0  47

Meanwhile 1,000 feet below the cliffy ridgeline in a sheltered environment, that same 0.1" of liquid piles up very efficiently on my snow board, haha. It is likely the reason why the powder in that 3,000-3,600ft band is usually absolutely sublime. Just me musing about the co-op again.... pay no attention, haha.

[powderfreak]

This is a snow survey week for NOAA... so figured I'd share my findings. Measured with a NWS Adirondack Snow Sampler.

Barnes Camp at 1,549ft

Snow Depth: 17”

Snow Core Water: 4.5”

High Road at 3,014ft

Snow Depth: 40”

Snow Core Water: 9.25”

Honestly I was surprised to see half the water at the base than there is in the upper elevations, because the snowfall has been running on average about 2/3rds of what falls at 3,000ft. I would’ve expected the 1,500ft level to have roughly 66% of the water that falls at 3,000ft, not only 50%, just based on the snowfall measurements.

[J.Spin]

Just me musing about the co-op again.... pay no attention, haha.

I definitely pay attention; I find it ridiculous how the daily increase in snowpack can sometimes be greater than the amount of snow that fell, and I really appreciate when you point out these instances. It shows the obvious incongruities in the current system, and while I know there is resistance to changing since there are so many decades of established data now, I say the sooner things can be scrapped and done correctly the better. I’m still concerned (as you seem to be) with whether or not one can even trust the winter liquid equivalent values based on the low snowfall numbers.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Got to 36F today under sunny skies. Total opposite of 2007 when we got 25" and the high for the day was 11F. Those were the days I guess..

[Snowstorms]

The last time I actually saw a legit Winter was 2008-09. So how all you guys have been complaining about the "lack of Winter" or "this Winter sucks" (and it does).....you've guys had it good for the past two years whereas areas further north haven't. I've been waiting since 2008-09 for a legit Winter. 3 years including this year. 2009-10 was the least snowiest Winter on record in my area beating 52-53 by 0.3" I think.

This is just f*king p!ssing me off. I made a bet with this girl and now I'm going to lose for sure lol. And if I won, I'd be winning. But if she wins I still win in a way

[powderfreak]

The last time I actually saw a legit Winter was 2008-09. So how all you guys have been complaining about the "lack of Winter" or "this Winter sucks" (and it does).....you've guys had it good for the past two years whereas areas further north haven't. I've been waiting since 2008-09 for a legit Winter. 3 years including this year. 2009-10 was the least snowiest Winter on record in my area beating 52-53 by 0.3" I think.

This is just f*king p!ssing me off. I made a bet with this girl and now I'm going to lose for sure lol. And if I won, I'd be winning. But if she wins I still win in a way

LOL. I drove from Stowe to Albany, NY this afternoon and let me tell you, outside of a small area in the upslope region that actually has solid cover of 8-12", there is no winter to be found. Not a "lack of winter" but "no winter." Champlain Valley and basically anything west of the geographic spine of the Greens has no snow. Not even piles. I drove through the eastern Adirondacks near Schroon Lake and in that area. Even up at 1,000-1,500ft in the Adirondacks there's no snow... well patches in the shade but not continuous coverage. That is unheard of for mid February. Granted this is on the eastern side or the non-NW flow upslope side, so there's probably snow in the central Dacks and western 'Dacks... but that was absolutely amazing. Nothing from exit 23-27 on I-87 up there.

In Stowe we have been having a below normal snowfall season... it hasn't been pretty and will likely be the lowest season in 15 years. With that said, we've had solid snow cover for almost 2 months now so it at least looks like winter. But its localized. I was astonished at how quickly you go from around 8-10" on the level near J.Spin's house... to early November like 2 miles down the road as you pass the imaginary line of the "Spine crest" with no appreciable change in elevation.

We are lucky to be able to at least look outside and see snow covering everything each day. Thank you Green Mountain upslope. As I sit here near Albany, NY staring at dead grass and brown woods, I realize we are lucky for what we have, even if it is running below normal. Mentally, having snow on the ground really makes a difference... and I hadn't been off the "Stowe island" in a while to see just how much your perception changes when you are surrounded by brown and not glistening white.

[tamarack]

LOL. I drove from Stowe to Albany, NY this afternoon and let me tell you, outside of a small area in the upslope region that actually has solid cover of 8-12", there is no winter to be found. Not a "lack of winter" but "no winter." Champlain Valley and basically anything west of the geographic spine of the Greens has no snow. Not even piles. I drove through the eastern Adirondacks near Schroon Lake and in that area. Even up at 1,000-1,500ft in the Adirondacks there's no snow... well patches in the shade but not continuous coverage. That is unheard of for mid February.

We are lucky to be able to at least look outside and see snow covering everything each day.

At least we're not to the point reached in Feb 2006, when central Maine snomo clubs were scavenging Wal-mart parking lots for stuff to patch the lower elevation parts of trails (and a park manager in N.Maine had to tell would-be snomo vacationers from Texas - of all places - that central Aroostook had insufficient snow for decent sledding), but we're only one short torch away. And of course 2009-10 ended on Jan 3, when the maritime warmth circled the New Year's retro-bomb and gave N.Maine its mildest JFM on record, with no other year even close. (Harder to take when folks to the south have 4 blockbusters.)

The three advisory-level storms last month have given the foothills and mts 6-15" snowpack, so we get to look upon white, albeit worn and grungy white in places. Outside my AUG office the grass is beginning to show, but still 75% ground is covered.

[klw]

I said to a coworker yesterday that what is surprising to me is not how little snow on the ground but that we have so much (only a few inches but surprising to have any). We somehow don't seem to be losing the small base we have despite the daily melting. i haven't bothered to measure but we still seem to have a few bullet proof inches despite so little snow and above freezing temps being the norm.

[adk]

PF I totally agree. Down here in BTV it is positively not winter. Aside from like two isolated weeks there has not been winter in town. I'm actually NOT complaining because frankly I don't need winter in town. I need it at Stowe. Where amazingly there has been enough to have plenty of fun. Not the faceshot machine of last year, but uncrowded fun.

Looking at the friday event I get the sense the models realyl still don't have a handle on the mositure patterns for the storm. Pretty clear we're not getting a phased storm but some dual weak low event. I'd like to see the northern low track trough ADK and VT to really get some mountain snowfall going. Right now it's proged to track along the border while a second weak low develops along the coastal regions. This spells confused models to me. Regardless I wouldn't be shocked if, when you add in the weak backdoor cold front set to pass on saturday, The greens are in the 8 inch range.

[j24vt]

We should lock this thread and start a Spring one. That will change the weather pattern

[ctsnowstorm628]

In case anyone is curious to the forecast I created for VTrans for this storm as of 16:30 this afternoon:

Onset of precip for NEK: 6PM-9PM in the form of light snow with temperatures 33-35F throughout the evening.

Periods of light snow through the night with temperatures lowering to 28-32F throughout the region. Snow accumulation 0.3"-1.5". Highest amounts above 1,500 feet.

Light snow tapering to flurries by mid morning Friday. Highs Friday 36-40F. Additional snow accumulation 0.0"-1.0". Highest amounts above 1,500ft.

Forecaster: EV

[TOOTH]

At least we're not to the point reached in Feb 2006, when central Maine snomo clubs were scavenging Wal-mart parking lots for stuff to patch the lower elevation parts of trails (and a park manager in N.Maine had to tell would-be snomo vacationers from Texas - of all places - that central Aroostook had insufficient snow for decent sledding), but we're only one short torch away. And of course 2009-10 ended on Jan 3, when the maritime warmth circled the New Year's retro-bomb and gave N.Maine its mildest JFM on record, with no other year even close. (Harder to take when folks to the south have 4 blockbusters.)

The three advisory-level storms last month have given the foothills and mts 6-15" snowpack, so we get to look upon white, albeit worn and grungy white in places. Outside my AUG office the grass is beginning to show, but still 75% ground is covered.

You are right on about the one torch away. I've been saying it for weeks up at Sugarloaf. I cant wait to see how long the "snowpack" lasts this year.

[J.Spin]

Yeah this month is going to come in atrocious on the snowfall stats...

This quote was from the Feb 17 Storm thread, but the data are probably best put here in the NNE thread. Since it’s mid month, and we have now reached the date where the effects of the 2007 Valentine’s Day Storm are incorporated into the cumulative seasonal snowfall data, it seemed like a good time for a snowfall update. That Valentine’s Day Storm was a notable snowfall event, and it marks the breaking point for pushing this season into the category of least snowy out of the past six through mid February (red bar on the graph below). Also of note is that while this season is not all that far behind ‘06-‘07 and ‘09-‘10 in snowfall, it has now fallen outside of the one standard deviation region (error associated with the green bar on the graph below). At -1.052 S.D. below the mean, this puts snowfall for 2011-2012 in the bottom 14.6% of seasons based on my six years worth of data. Also based on my data, the current 74.6” of snowfall received at this location is 67.0% of average.

[J.Spin]

Looking at the friday event I get the sense the models realyl still don't have a handle on the mositure patterns for the storm. Pretty clear we're not getting a phased storm but some dual weak low event. I'd like to see the northern low track trough ADK and VT to really get some mountain snowfall going. Right now it's proged to track along the border while a second weak low develops along the coastal regions. This spells confused models to me. Regardless I wouldn't be shocked if, when you add in the weak backdoor cold front set to pass on saturday, The greens are in the 8 inch range.

Something like that for the upcoming period wouldn’t surprise me either, and since the slopes are in pretty good shape to begin with, it would make for some nice surfaces going into the holiday weekend. I liked the look of the ECMWF snowfall in the overnight run, as the snow hung around from later this afternoon all the way through midday tomorrow. Roger Hill is going with the same 2-4” tonight for the mountains as he had in his forecast yesterday, and it seems the NWS is going a bit leaner. Our point forecast in the Winooski Valley sums to 2-3” through tomorrow, and then I’d suspect additional accumulation with the mention of the snow showers Friday night through Saturday night. It certainly looks like it will be tough to get accumulation in the lower valleys at first, but eventually temperatures cool.

[tamarack]

Sun has burned off the clouds though it's still a bit hazy, kind of like an August morning. Forecast highs are near 40, but with the high launchpoint (most stations bottomed out near 30) I would not be surprised by temps closer to 50, unless we get a stiff seebreeze, or clouds thicken by early afternoon. Puddles are getting larger, and the 75% snowcover is only 1-4" outside the AUG office. If the sun gets to work a few hr, we'll be under 50% cover by day's end.

In Ft. Kent there was a saying that April snow made the older snowpack melt faster. Any snow we get tonight (GYX thinks "up to an inch"; I think that optimistic) will probably do the same even though it's Feb.

[wxeyeNH]

In Ft. Kent there was a saying that April snow made the older snowpack melt faster. Any snow we get tonight (GYX thinks "up to an inch"; I think that optimistic) will probably do the same even though it's Feb.

Interesting.....I don't understand the logic. Newer snow=whiter snow and more reflection. So how does a newer snowfall make the older one melt faster?

[klw]

Its really nice out there today. Pushing 40 with the sun out here in St. J. Puddles everywhere. It would be a great day to go running if my achilles didn't ache so much at the moment. Darn tendonitis.

[tamarack]

Interesting.....I don't understand the logic. Newer snow=whiter snow and more reflection. So how does a newer snowfall make the older one melt faster?

Never said it was a valid statement.

However, by 4/1 the old snowpack is often settled to about a 3:1 ratio and with AM temps often still dropping into single digits, that stuff gets mighty hard. There's often a week or two when one can walk on 2-3' snowpack without snowshoes; with the rocks and blowdowns mostly covered, it can be the best time to explore the woods.

However, when the new soft snow gets exposed to the sun (early April days with temp ranges like 50/10 aren't uncommon in that part of the world) it quickly melts and probably helps to soften the older snow.

[MaineJayhawk]

46F in Portland. What an awful stretch of weather. This is worse than 09/10. At least that season it was fun in the first half. This has been repugnant since Thanksgiving. I'll be in the kayak by Tax day.

[Lava Rock]

Pretty much done with this winter. Haven't even snowmobiled yet. Hoping to get a ride in or two, but some personal matters had to be dealt with. Wow, only at 26" for the season. Never thought I'd ever witness such a low year.

[red]

What a beautiful spring day. 44 degrees, gorgeous brown grass showing everywhere, muddy driveway and that wonderful earthy smell is in the air. ahhhhhh invigorating!

Oh wait, its February 16th :axe:

[tamarack]

46F in Portland. What an awful stretch of weather. This is worse than 09/10. At least that season it was fun in the first half. This has been repugnant since Thanksgiving. I'll be in the kayak by Tax day.

As of today, I'd have to agree this winter is a bit worse than 09-10 so far. However, two years ago I was only on the 9th day of a 47-day streak of above normal temps (by about 20 days my longest ever streak of abnormal temps in 40 yr of wx obs), and had yet to see the worst winter month (March being "winter" here, for avg snowfall) since Dec 1973. March produced only 0.6" snow (took five separate days with "measurable" snowfall to accumulate that massive total), and was not just the only March in 13 yr here to not get below zero, it failed even to get down to 10. Feb, March, and April 2010 were all the warmest I've had for MBY, each by nearly 3F from the 2nd warmest.

So 2011-12 has to produce a lot of continuing awfulness to wind up worse than 09-10, and has a significant Oct/Nov "handicap" in its race for the bottom. Six more weeks similar to the past two and it'll make it, though. This winter is also probably the worst for not only having no big storms, but not even having much for legitimate weenie-exciters, at least inside 100 hr. Du-u-u-l-lll!

Patches of brown all over the lawn in AUG, down to about 50% coverage in mid-40s hazy sun.

[wxeyeNH]

Light rain started about an hour ago. At the time it was 39F. It is now changing to light snow and down to 35.2F Dewpoint is 32F.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Light rain started about an hour ago. At the time it was 39F. It is now changing to light snow and down to 35.2F Dewpoint is 32F.

Classic wetbulb situation. Beautiful.

37/28 waiting on precip

[wxeyeNH]

light snow 32.6F slushy coating of maybe 1/4" meh

[powderfreak]

Stowe Mountain Resort

Mountain Operations Center

Barnes Camp Snow Board

1,549ft

Current Weather: Light Snow

Temperature: 35F

New Snow: 1.0" (very wet snow)

Snow Depth: 17"

Stowe Village (my house)

800ft

Temperature: 34F

New Snow: 0.0" (trace of non-accumulating snow)

Notes: One of the most bizzare thermal patterns I've ever seen in this local area. Driving on RT 108 from Stowe Village to the Ski Resort... it is raining in Stowe village; rain changes to snow around 900-1,000ft and becomes noticable on the roadway. At 1,200-1,300ft the road was plowed with new snowbanks and what looked like 1-2" of wet snow. Looks like a postcard with wet snow clinging to everything and all trees are caked in snow. Car temp was 32F (don't like using the car temp but its at least in the ballpark). However, once you get up towards 1,500-1,600ft it warms up very quickly and was almost a mix of rain and snow again. Car temperature goes up to 34F and we have 35F here at the office. PWS at 1,600ft has been up near 36F all this morning. The snow has melted off the trees up here and it is very close to raining... however its a much drier snow falling only 300-400ft lower and there was likely more snow accumulation at 1,300ft than 1,500-1,600ft.

Very localized downsloping processes or mixed out inversion?

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KVTSTOWE3

[J.Spin]

We’ve picked up 0.08” of liquid from this event so far at our location in Waterbury, and while it was just a touch too warm for accumulation down in the bottom of the Winooski Valley, it did translate into 3” new up on the mountain. I’ve added the usual north to south list of reported accumulations from the Vermont ski areas below:

Jay Peak: 1”

Burke: 1”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 2”

Bolton Valley: 3”

Mad River Glen: 1”

Sugarbush: 1”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 0”

Magic Mountain: 1”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 4”

Reading a few of the comments from the resort websites and those from Powderfreak above, it’s not too surprising to hear that the new snow is dense and that the density varies with elevation, but the current round of snow has at least been a refresher as we head into the holiday weekend. It also looks like cooling temperatures and additional small shots of snow are in the forecast for the mountains through Sunday.