mreaves Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Looking at the 12z NAM, it looks as though the 'jackpot' for wintry precipitation will be in the NEK of Vermont northeastward through northern Maine. Some selected cities that will really feel the brunt of this will probably be on a line from St. Johnsbury to Berlin, NH to Rumford, ME. Also, I think the NAM will do well with surface temps compared to other large scale models. It has the 32F isotherm cutting into the Pussumpic Valley at noon-ish tomorrow around St. J and maybe 1-2pm in Lyndonville/East Burke, etc. So, until then it will be MESSY. The NAM also has a strong ZR signal all the way down to Springfield,VT where after maybe 1" of snow, a significant amount of the front end dump will be falling as freezing rain. The NAM prints out over .5" of ice down there locally, which may be over done but def possible if CAD really hangs tough tomorrow early morning. Lastly, at the St. Johnsbury ASOS where the sounding on the NAM is from, it has every layer go above 0C from 700mb to the surface by 18z tomorrow, meaning the layer of cold air is much thinner than progged yesterday, so there probably wont be much sleet from this...just lots of freezing rain after about 4AM tomorrow morning until we can scour the cold air at the surface out. So, here is my call for all of Caledonia, Orange, Orleans, and Essex counties in VT: Snow starts up after 9PM tonight and could become heavy as the initial thump of moisture comes in. Snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain by 12AM-2AM in orange county, 2AM-4AM in Caledonia and Essex counties, and 4AM-6AM in Orleans county. Total snow and sleet accumulations will range from 1-3" in Orange county to 2-4" in Caledonia county and 3-6" in Orleans and Essex counties. Freezing rain will continue through mid morning in southern Orange county and the 32F isotherm will slowly move northward through the morning. By noon, the 32F isotherm should be centered somewhere in central Caledonia and Essex county with areas above 1500ft in all of Caledonia and Essex counties still below freezing with ongoing freezing rain. The 32F isotherm should clear the international border by 3pm, leaving everyone in the forecast area with showers. Total freezing rain accumulations will range from 0.15" in southern and eastern Orange county to 0.25" in the Passumpic river valley around St. Johnsbury to .35" in elevated areas of northwestern Orange county and everywhere in Caledonia county above 1200ft. Orleans and Essex counties should receive 0.2"-0.3" of ice, with more of their precipitation falling in the form of snow. Rainfall amounts should be minimal with 0.25"-0.50" falling in southern Orange county to as little as 0.05" falling in northern Essex county. High temps with peak at around 3pm with highs ranging from 38F in Orange county to 33F in elevated areas in northern Essex and Orleans counties. No love for Washington County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I'm now focused on the 12 hours from 0z sat to 0z sunday. Upslope paramters looking decent. WRF has the classic signature. Hasn't panned out perfectly this year but looks like another 3-6 is within range over that 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 No love for Washington County? Sorry buddy I gotcha! Very similar to the forecast for western Orange county. Probably 2-4" of snow followed by 0.2"-0.3" of ice, with rain in Barre by 11AM ish. VERY dicey AM commute every where east of the spine tomorrow morning. Hoping for some cancelled classes in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 This is random, but does anyone know much about Mt. Katahdin snow climo? I'm not talking about Millinocket, but inside the park at some of the higher elevations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Sorry buddy I gotcha! Very similar to the forecast for western Orange county. Probably 2-4" of snow followed by 0.2"-0.3" of ice, with rain in Barre by 11AM ish. VERY dicey AM commute every where east of the spine tomorrow morning. Hoping for some cancelled classes in the AM I figured it would be roughly the same, I live right on the border with OC anyway. My personal bechmarks are anything more than 2.5" is an overperformer, anything less than an inch is an underperformer. By the way, thanks for the comments that you have been adding to this thread. We don't get a lot of action from pro mets or soon to be pro mets directed towards VT. PF, adk, JSpin and Allenson all add great input but more is always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Oh nice. About time. Pretty surprised they have completely omitted data from HIE and BML which would have made a nice 3a stripe north of the White Mountains. Having that area as 4b is pretty silly since they exceed that criteria pretty much every single winter. The 6a area in the monadnocks seems a bit strange to me. Outside the seacoast, the only area that should even come close is the immediate areas around Lake Winnipesaukee. Equally strange to see Maine without an acre of 3A (despite Van Buren, for one example, reaching -35 to -47 in over half the winters 76-05.) Perhaps even weirder is having most of northern Aroostook in 4A, and some even in 4B (bottom at -25?) - just so wrong. The only thermometers there which fail to reach -30 in most winters are probably hung 6" from an unglazed single-pane window. In 1994 the coop obs in Allagash had an average low of -20 for the entire month of January. Didn't someplace up there set some kind of record a few years ago? (I know, Jan 2009 is out of the subject range.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 This is random, but does anyone know much about Mt. Katahdin snow climo? I'm not talking about Millinocket, but inside the park at some of the higher elevations... Random question, random answer... The park isn't staffed regularly during the winter, so I don't think any formal snow measurements are being done. Other than for some lower elevation places (the snomo trail on the perimeter road for example), one is supposed to get a special permit - and must demonstrate competancy/experience - to recreate in Baxter between 10/15 and 5/15, and sometimes outside that window depending on snow conditions. Many years ago there was an article in Yankee in which several experts sought to compare the climate at Katahdin's summit to that atop MWN. IIRC, the thinking was that the increased latitude would make up for the 1,000' or so less elevation for temps, but that Katahdin was likely to get more precip. Of course, there's no equivalent snow collecter there like Tucks, as the south side immediately drops to under 1,500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 OC in the house today, yo. love OC my best friend's dad is the prez at VTC and they got a nice house at about 1420' (campus) in randolph, vt. beautiful there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 love OC my best friend's dad is the prez at VTC and they got a nice house at about 1420' (campus) in randolph, vt. beautiful there Cool. And yeah, the campus there is in a pretty nice spot--high on the hill, wide open, long views, windy as hell. Randolph really isn't that far from here in Corinth (~20 miles) but it's a real pain to get theyah from heah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Cool. And yeah, the campus there is in a pretty nice spot--high on the hill, wide open, long views, windy as hell. Randolph really isn't that far from here in Corinth (~20 miles) but it's a real pain to get theyah from heah. They really had a knack for locating the colleges in the Vermont State College System. Johnson State has great views and Lyndon State has nice views of Burke Mt. and the NEK. Of course UVM has stunning views of Lake Champlain and the Green Mts. Castleton State got short changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 will be back in VT on saturday morning, for this one i am in ottawa hoping for some accumulation but ice could be the bigger threat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I figured it would be roughly the same, I live right on the border with OC anyway. My personal bechmarks are anything more than 2.5" is an overperformer, anything less than an inch is an underperformer. By the way, thanks for the comments that you have been adding to this thread. We don't get a lot of action from pro mets or soon to be pro mets directed towards VT. PF, adk, JSpin and Allenson all add great input but more is always appreciated. Anytime! While I'm up here, I mind as well do what I love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 GYX foothills forecast is 4-6" (or 3-5", depends on where you read) then up to 0.1" ice. My guess for MBY is 3" SN, 1" IP, 0.1" ZR - not as clean as I'd prefer, but a solid 2-3" addition to the snowpack. Should be some strong dynamic cooling at first; currently in AUG it's mostly cloudy, 32/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 A link was posted to Matt Noyes’ snowfall map from this morning in the SWFE thread, but I’m posting a copy here since the most substantial snowfall looks to be in NNE. This was actually in a blog post from mattnoyes.net last night, so perhaps he’ll do another update tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 A link was posted to Matt Noyes’ snowfall map from this morning in the SWFE thread, but I’m posting a copy here since the most substantial snowfall looks to be in NNE. This was actually in a blog post from mattnoyes.net last night, so perhaps he’ll do another update tonight. Yeah I posted that earlier. If he doesn't update, I think he's gonna bust way high in the NEK and all of N VT. No way Burlington get 4" or Lyndonville gets 6" from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Equally strange to see Maine without an acre of 3A (despite Van Buren, for one example, reaching -35 to -47 in over half the winters 76-05.) Perhaps even weirder is having most of northern Aroostook in 4A, and some even in 4B (bottom at -25?) - just so wrong. The only thermometers there which fail to reach -30 in most winters are probably hung 6" from an unglazed single-pane window. In 1994 the coop obs in Allagash had an average low of -20 for the entire month of January. Didn't someplace up there set some kind of record a few years ago? (I know, Jan 2009 is out of the subject range.) Wow, hadn't looked at the Maine map yet. That's pretty ridiculous. This is probably the record you are thinking of. http://www.erh.noaa....-10_item001.htm Public Information Statement National Weather Service (NWS), Caribou, Maine 11:30 AM EST, Tuesday, February 10, 2009 New All-Time Low Temperature Recorded in Maine On the morning of January 16, as New England was under the grip of an arctic blast, an all-time low temperature of -50° Fahrenheit was recorded for Maine. It was recorded at 7:30 a.m. EST at a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge on the Big Black River near Depot Mountain in northwestern Aroostook County. The previous record, -48° Fahrenheit, was set in Van Buren, Maine almost 84 years earlier, on January 19, 1925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I noticed today that some snowdrops have sprouted under the overhang of my gazebo. I have absolutely no idea how since the ground is and has been frozen solidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Snowing here in Waterbury now; it started up around 6:15 P.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Snowing here in Waterbury now; it started up around 6:15 P.M. Just noticed a few stray flurries here, too. You must've had a little period of steadier light snow from those echos in the Winooski Valley/I-89 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Lgt snow falling with 31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You must've had a little period of steadier light snow from those echos in the Winooski Valley/I-89 corridor. I’m not sure if I caught that wave, but it’s certainly picking up out there now; 0.6” on the snowboard as of 7:15 PM; it’s pretty fluffy accumulation with flakes up to 10 mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 We started getting light snow here in the 05862 as I rolled into town about 7. Judging by the larger flakes that just came in the house on my dog's back it looks like flake size has increased nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Snow started in the 05851 at 7:47. Small flakes and increasing slowly. Still looking for 2-4" but will be watchIng observations closely. Hopefully we drop from our current temp of 28.5/18.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsteader Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Oh nice. About time. Pretty surprised they have completely omitted data from HIE and BML which would have made a nice 3a stripe north of the White Mountains. Having that area as 4b is pretty silly since they exceed that criteria pretty much every single winter. The 6a area in the monadnocks seems a bit strange to me. Outside the seacoast, the only area that should even come close is the immediate areas around Lake Winnipesaukee. Dont know where the data from that map is coming but I beleive its total BS. River valleys always have the lowest minima, and that is not shown. My location in Belknap county has been 4B since the 70"s. Maybe its 5A now... According to the map, Concord is now the same as Nashua, ....I think not. Winni is also overstated, Winni is milder till it freezes, once it catches its very cold because cold air drains into it at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Down to 26.4/24.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Snowing here--1/2" or so down. 28F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Snowing here--1/2" or so down. 28F. Snow growth getting better here. .25" down 26.1/25.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VtWxWatcher Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 moderate snow, holding steady at 28F with a little over 1" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 ^ Yeah, pushing an inch here too. I measured after I last posted and it was up to 0.8". And ditto again, holding steady at 28. Pretty stretched out--looks like we've got a long way to go, whatever forms it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Winni is also overstated, Winni is milder till it freezes, once it catches its very cold because cold air drains into it at night. Definitely not overstated. Just look at the data... frozen lake or not, this area consistently fails hard at cold when compared to every surrounding station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.