NNE Heart of Winter

[ctsnowstorm628]

Near 32F now with much better snow growth so colder air must finally be moving into the orographic lift zone. Flakes are finally sticking to cars and other surfaces here at Topnotch on the MTN Rd. It's very light though as in if this kept up all night we'd get less than an inch haha. Still nice to see weenie flakes after the thaw.

Light snow here at LSC. Currently in the weather center, and the temp at 1,100ft is 32.9F. Barely sticking to the cars and not sticking to the roadways or walkways yet on campus.

[mreaves]

Near 32F now with much better snow growth so colder air must finally be moving into the orographic lift zone. Flakes are finally sticking to cars and other surfaces here at Topnotch on the MTN Rd. It's very light though as in if this kept up all night we'd get less than an inch haha. Still nice to see weenie flakes after the thaw.

Light snow here at LSC. Currently in the weather center, and the temp at 1,100ft is 32.9F. Barely sticking to the cars and not sticking to the roadways or walkways yet on campus.

Looks like the torch has been beaten back here, for now at least. Light snow, dusting the roads and my personal skating rink/driveway. Would love to see the next event come in with a snowier solution (as I am sure everyone else would as well) but as per usual this winter won't hold my breath.

[J.Spin]

I’ve seen flakes here in Waterbury since around 5:45 PM when I was getting home, but nothing consistent enough for any accumulation yet. Temperatures have been around the freezing mark though, so there could be some accumulation if things got going.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.21” L.E.

We picked up an additional 0.2” of snow with last night’s activity, to bring this event to 0.3” of snow. This system didn’t deliver a lot of liquid equivalent to this area, and it would have been nice to get more of it as snow, but it at least added another couple of tenths of an inch of water to the snowpack.

The next couple of systems definitely sound like they have the potential for more snow though. In his morning forecast on The Point, Bob Minsenberger was going with snow to mix/rain for the system starting tomorrow night. I couldn’t tell if that was a CPV-centric forecast though, because Roger Hill is currently going with almost all snow for Northern Vermont, with the possibility of a little sleet in there. He said that he was expecting significant mixing down in Southern Vermont however, with the possibility of freezing rain. He did caution that we’ll have to watch out for the potential for that to creep north. In their forecast discussion, the BTV NWS is still waiting on the resolution of differences between the GFS and the ECMWF, but at this point said that they are going with sleet and snow. Roger Hill also spoke about the Saturday through Monday system, and is expecting more accumulating snow showers with that one. He mentioned it as an arctic frontal passage, although the NWS refers to it as a slow moving low pressure system passing to our north in their forecast discussion.

Roger also mentioned that BTV has only received 22.1” of snow so far this season, for 16^th lowest in their records. That means that along the spine on the Waterbury/Bolton line, we’ve received close to 3X the snowfall that Burlington has this season, which is a much larger disparity than usual (typically it seems to be more in the range of 1.5X to 2X). Using my snowfall data from the past 6 seasons, the 61.0” of snowfall recorded thus far for 2011-2012 is 72.5% of average.

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 32.0 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

[ctsnowstorm628]

As of now, the amped solutions seem reasonable with no blocking upstream. Expecting 2-4" then signifcant icing (haven't seen exact soundings) here in the NEK barring any 12z shifts northward

[powderfreak]

A couple of photos from the thaw yesterday...

1,500ft near my base area snow stake... never good to see water filling the gullies in mid/late January. But yet still surprisingly peaceful to just chill and listen to the water run through the ice and snow.

A foot of very dense, thawed-then-frozen-several-times-over, snowpack left at 1,500ft. You can pretty much walk on this stuff now.

[j24vt]

0.3" of junk (I can't bring myself to call snow) accumulated last night.

[NJwinter23]

Could anybody enlighten me on whether or not the -SN 1 1/4 mile vis obs at kEFK are legit? It's apparently been snowing there since around 9PM last night, but no where else.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Could anybody enlighten me on whether or not the -SN 1 1/4 mile vis obs at kEFK are legit? It's apparently been snowing there since around 9PM last night, but no where else.

im 35mi south and nothing is falling here with similar topographic features.

[NJwinter23]

True, something must be screwy with that ASOS..Reported +SN at 1 AM on the 22nd when it was -5º, with clear skies around it...How much accumulation did u receive overnight in Lyndonville? stick to roads?

[eekuasepinniW]

Could anybody enlighten me on whether or not the -SN 1 1/4 mile vis obs at kEFK are legit? It's apparently been snowing there since around 9PM last night, but no where else.

http://www.newportvtwx.info/webcam.html

[ctsnowstorm628]

True, something must be screwy with that ASOS..Reported +SN at 1 AM on the 22nd when it was -5º, with clear skies around it...How much accumulation did u receive overnight in Lyndonville? stick to roads?

Nope. Basically stuck to icy spots last evening then it stopped snowing.

[NJwinter23]

http://www.newportvt...nfo/webcam.html

Nope. Basically stuck to icy spots last evening then it stopped snowing.

Thanks guys

[J.Spin]

The forecasts for the Northern Greens eastward this morning from Bob Minsenberger, Mark Breen, Roger Hill, and the BTV NWS all seemed pretty similar for the upcoming event with 3 to 5 inches of front end snow, mixed precipitation with some ice in the middle, then the return to snow on the backside with more chances for snow over the weekend. The potential ice is certainly the biggest concern – the NWS only mentions the potential 3 to 5 inches of snow in our point forecast, but ¼ to ½ inch of ice is mentioned in the Winter Storm Warning that has been put up. The NWS didn’t seem mention total liquid for the storm in their forecast discussion, but even though the precipitation isn’t all snow, it should be a great addition to the total liquid in the snowpack for the mountains, and presumably even the mountain valleys. I added the latest BTV NWS winter warnings graphic and the Winter Storm Warning text below; they don’t have a snowfall map out however, just one for ice accumulation.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-262100-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0002.120127T0000Z-120128T0000Z/
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...
STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION
330 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN VERMONT

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH
 ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND
 TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY FRIDAY
 MORNING. RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
 FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SIGNIFICANT
 ICING POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE
 RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
 TONIGHT...THEN LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...LOCALLY BELOW 1 MILE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS WITH NON-ESSENTIAL TRAVEL DISCOURAGED.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

[adk]

maybe its been all the real work I've been doing but this event just doesn't feel right. I get the sense we are all wrong. Either this is going to over perform snowise or be all rain. I could go with 3-6 with mixing if I wanted to put a forecast out there that was in the 25-75% of likely solutions but I don't have a lot of conviction to it.

[Allenson]

Snow, ice, rain, fun!

I see the USDA has come out with new hardiness zone maps. Nice to see the colder zone 'finger' pointing down through central Orange, Co., VT.

Here's the link, click on the state of your choice.

http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/#

[Allenson]

And another map for your viewing pleasure. This'll be a good time if it comes into fruition:

[mreaves]

And another map for your viewing pleasure. This'll be a good time if it comes into fruition:

Looks like you're just about in the bullseye!

[klw]

BTV snow forecast map

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.shtml

[klw]

BTV northern Vermont map

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.shtml

[eekuasepinniW]

Snow, ice, rain, fun!

I see the USDA has come out with new hardiness zone maps. Nice to see the colder zone 'finger' pointing down through central Orange, Co., VT.

Here's the link, click on the state of your choice.

http://planthardines...da.gov/PHZMWeb/#

Oh nice. About time.

Pretty surprised they have completely omitted data from HIE and BML which would have made a nice 3a stripe north of the White Mountains. Having that area as 4b is pretty silly since they exceed that criteria pretty much every single winter.

The 6a area in the monadnocks seems a bit strange to me. Outside the seacoast, the only area that should even come close is the immediate areas around Lake Winnipesaukee.

[powderfreak]

Wow was not expecting a Winter Storm Warning for this event... lol BTV with 4-6" of snow here then ice... not sure I believe it but we'll see.

[powderfreak]

maybe its been all the real work I've been doing but this event just doesn't feel right. I get the sense we are all wrong. Either this is going to over perform snowise or be all rain. I could go with 3-6 with mixing if I wanted to put a forecast out there that was in the 25-75% of likely solutions but I don't have a lot of conviction to it.

Yeah me too... 11am Operations meeting... do we run the haul ropes tonight? I'm thinking we should but we won't. We've been looking for an event to test the new quad, this might be it. We sort of want to ice it up as odd as that sounds.

[Allenson]

Looks like you're just about in the bullseye!

William Tell style.

Pretty surprised they have completely omitted data from HIE and BML which would have made a nice 3a stripe north of the White Mountains. Having that area as 4b is pretty silly since they exceed that criteria pretty much every single winter.

The 6a area in the monadnocks seems a bit strange to me. Outside the seacoast, the only area that should even come close is the immediate areas around Lake Winnipesaukee.

Yeah, I thought the NH map was a little odd in places myself--particularly SW NH. The 6a zone they show is basiclly the highest terrain in that area. Sure, on those real cold inverted mornings it's colder in the valleys but I have to imagine that the Monadnock--Sunapee--Croydon spine gets colder than -10F...

[J.Spin]

BTV snow forecast map

Thanks klw, BTV has the icing map superseding the snowfall map in their headline link, but I see now that the snowfall forecast map can be obtained in the “Snow Info” section at their website. It’s nice to see those 4 to 6-inch numbers along the spine an off to the east; it looks like that map is covering through 7 PM tomorrow. It would be nice to get that snow, although whatever liquid equivalent comes in should be a good snowpack addition. I ran that cool hourly weather graph option off the point and click, and it had 4.5” snow and 0.73” total liquid up in the higher elevations of Mt. Mansfield. I also ran it for our location (graphic below) and it has 5.3” snow and 0.78” total liquid. It should be fun to compare that to the empirical data derived from my analyses for the event.

[klw]

I hadn't noticed those graphs before but they are fun to play with.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Looking at the 12z NAM, it looks as though the 'jackpot' for wintry precipitation will be in the NEK of Vermont northeastward through northern Maine. Some selected cities that will really feel the brunt of this will probably be on a line from St. Johnsbury to Berlin, NH to Rumford, ME. Also, I think the NAM will do well with surface temps compared to other large scale models. It has the 32F isotherm cutting into the Pussumpic Valley at noon-ish tomorrow around St. J and maybe 1-2pm in Lyndonville/East Burke, etc. So, until then it will be MESSY.

The NAM also has a strong ZR signal all the way down to Springfield,VT where after maybe 1" of snow, a significant amount of the front end dump will be falling as freezing rain. The NAM prints out over .5" of ice down there locally, which may be over done but def possible if CAD really hangs tough tomorrow early morning.

Lastly, at the St. Johnsbury ASOS where the sounding on the NAM is from, it has every layer go above 0C from 700mb to the surface by 18z tomorrow, meaning the layer of cold air is much thinner than progged yesterday, so there probably wont be much sleet from this...just lots of freezing rain after about 4AM tomorrow morning until we can scour the cold air at the surface out.

So, here is my call for all of Caledonia, Orange, Orleans, and Essex counties in VT:

Snow starts up after 9PM tonight and could become heavy as the initial thump of moisture comes in. Snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain by 12AM-2AM in orange county, 2AM-4AM in Caledonia and Essex counties, and 4AM-6AM in Orleans county. Total snow and sleet accumulations will range from 1-3" in Orange county to 2-4" in Caledonia county and 3-6" in Orleans and Essex counties. Freezing rain will continue through mid morning in southern Orange county and the 32F isotherm will slowly move northward through the morning. By noon, the 32F isotherm should be centered somewhere in central Caledonia and Essex county with areas above 1500ft in all of Caledonia and Essex counties still below freezing with ongoing freezing rain. The 32F isotherm should clear the international border by 3pm, leaving everyone in the forecast area with showers. Total freezing rain accumulations will range from 0.15" in southern and eastern Orange county to 0.25" in the Passumpic river valley around St. Johnsbury to .35" in elevated areas of northwestern Orange county and everywhere in Caledonia county above 1200ft. Orleans and Essex counties should receive 0.2"-0.3" of ice, with more of their precipitation falling in the form of snow. Rainfall amounts should be minimal with 0.25"-0.50" falling in southern Orange county to as little as 0.05" falling in northern Essex county.

High temps with peak at around 3pm with highs ranging from 38F in Orange county to 33F in elevated areas in northern Essex and Orleans counties.

[N. OF PIKE]

_{i think it will be snowing in S. orange county, vt by 6pm tonite judging by radar. maybe 530}

[ctsnowstorm628]

_{i think it will be snowing in S. orange county, vt by 6pm tonite judging by radar. maybe 530}

Its possible. I think the brunt of it holds off til maybe 7 or 8. Put 9 just to be safe... should have said 'no later than 9PM'.

[Allenson]

_{i think it will be snowing in S. orange county, vt by 6pm tonite judging by radar. maybe 530}

OC in the house today, yo.