dendrite Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Currently 32.4F. The snow has been saved so far. The mid 40s have creeped into the higher elevations in SW NH though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 About .5" of rain last night. As far as Grinch storms go, not terribly bad. Hoping the Euro has the right idea for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Currently 32.4F. The snow has been saved so far. The mid 40s have creeped into the higher elevations in SW NH though. Very similar up here... I had 34F at my place and MVL is reporting the same thing... however its 43F up here at 1,500ft base of the ski resort. Inversion was very noticable at around 1,100-1,200ft with a very thin (maybe 50-100 vertical feet), but very dense fog layer. You go from low to mid 30s, into near zero vis fog, then pop back out on the otherside to good visibility and the temp on my car was jumping up 2F at a time, lol. So here's our temp profile this morning... 36F 4,000ft 39F 2,500ft 43F 1,500ft 34F 800ft Actually now we are dropping quick... down to 38F here at 1,500ft. You can see we peaked at 46F earlier this morning up at this elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Cold front just went through... summit is now below freezing. Still dropping at 1,500ft.. down to 36F now from 43F at 5:30am. We were getting ripped with wind, even down at this elevation some gusts near 40mph, but now its gone dead calm down here and tapered off quite a bit up top. Must've been some pre-frontal wind mixing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 46 here this morning. The snowpack in Bangor is almost toast. Only getting 2 inches from the last storm didn't help. Here in Glenburn the snow pack is trying to hang on. Had a solid layer of concrete on top but we are down to about an inch. We might be able to hang onto it if we can get temps to drop before the sun comes out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Minimal snow loss overnight. 0.33" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 hey.....looks like many of us have a chance at high end advisory or low end warning. they aren't too interested over in the sne thread.... Thursday night is dicey but could be good, with a connection to southern moisture. The weekend has potential particularly for eastern areas with plenty of cold air and a decent set up. At least this is how I understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 hey.....looks like many of us have a chance at high end advisory or low end warning. they aren't too interested over in the sne thread.... Thursday night is dicey but could be good, with a connection to southern moisture. The weekend has potential particularly for eastern areas with plenty of cold air and a decent set up. At least this is how I understand it. Made a comment in Bob's thread, I would like to lock up verbatium the 00z Euro for the next 10 days as we have 3 chances a some wintery precip mostly of the white variety for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Still 31 at 7 when I left the house. Trees were still icy, though atop Mile Hill they were bare - above the inversion, I guess. Wunderground observers near MBY all around 40 at noon. 9 Snowpack down to 9" this morning, probably lose another 1-2" by sunset. Icy roads are suspect in a double-fatal crash late yest afternoon on Rt 2 near the Farmington-Wilton line. We knew one of the victims and one of the injured, as my wife had worked with them 2004-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I can vouch for the icy roads. Truck thermo said 36F this morning as I rounded a slight bend in the road. I saw the shiny surface but it was too late. Truck started to slide a bit then back to just wet pavement. Probably didn't help I was on the phone. I was lucky and straightened back out.The cold from the last few days must have kept the surface cool despite the above normal temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Snowstake data from past 24 hours shows... 3,014ft... Yesterday: 34" Today: 29" 1,549ft... Yesterday: 15" Today...12" The upper mountain snow pack was a good bit of fluff and hadn't settled in a while, so that's why I suspect we lost more depth up high. Just more snow that compacted down to a very dense 29" now. Still pretty depressing for only 29" at that elevation this time of year. Low elevation is also depressing at only 12", but there's a lot more variability down lower from year to year. Up high is usually more consistent than it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Looking at the mesomap it appears the homestead is tickling 50F. Awful weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I’ve been checking in on the potential Friday event on the ECMWF at the Weather Underground WunderMap, and it certainly looked like it could be a decent shot of snow to my untrained eye. The 850 mb temps seem to stay reasonable, and although the 540 thickness line heads north of the international border, the snow algorithm definitely shows snow in NNE, and the projected amount has been increasing for the past three runs. On this latest 12Z run, snowfall seems to hang around in the northern mountains from late Thursday night all the way through to early Saturday morning. What’s the signal for the precipitation not being snow (the thickness, or something else? – I didn’t check temperatures at all elevations). We’re only about 48 hours or so out, but there didn’t seem to be too much excitement for it in the thread for the event, so I figured I’d post it here. I guess the other models not having quite the same storm is keeping things in check? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I’ve been checking in on the potential Friday event on the ECMWF at the Weather Underground WunderMap, and it certainly looked like it could be a decent shot of snow to my untrained eye. The 850 mb temps seem to stay reasonable, and although the 540 thickness line heads north of the international border, the snow algorithm definitely shows snow in NNE, and the projected amount has been increasing for the past three runs. On this latest 12Z run, snowfall seems to hang around in the northern mountains from late Thursday night all the way through to early Saturday morning. What’s the signal for the precipitation not being snow (the thickness, or something else? – I didn’t check temperatures at all elevations). We’re only about 48 hours or so out, but there didn’t seem to be too much excitement for it in the thread for the event, so I figured I’d post it here. I guess the other models not having quite the same storm is keeping things in check? On Storm Vista, the precipitation begins between 0z-6z Thursday night/Friday early morning. Surface temps in the low to middle 20s as well as 850s well below 0C. This continues through maybe 15z-18z Friday with temperatures in the upper 20s and 850 between -4C and -2C. By 18z, the 850 0C line pushes NE and all of VT is above 0C at 850. However, surface temps from the spine eastward and northeastward are below 32F, so it looks to me like a wintry mix of some sort sounding (haven't seen exact layering and its too early for that anyway). By 0z Friday evening everthing ends as snow with temperatures 28-32F around the region. Total QPF is anywhere from .75-1.00" for all of northern VT with the 1" line from KRUT-KLEB with probably 75% of it in the form of snow for the northern 1/3 of VT outside the Champlain Valley. Potential for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 but there didn’t seem to be too much excitement for it in the thread for the event, so I figured I’d post it here. I guess the other models not having quite the same storm is keeping things in check? Because it doesn't look terribly promising for SNE. And you know, if it's not snowing there, it's not snowing anywhere. Looking at the mesomap it appears the homestead is tickling 50F. Awful weather. I'm so sick of cutters and Pacific-derived "cold" fronts I could rip my eyeballs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Because it doesn't look terribly promising for SNE. And you know, if it's not snowing there, it's not snowing anywhere. I'm so sick of cutters and Pacific-derived "cold" fronts I could rip my eyeballs out. AGREEEEEE! I get both viewpoint as I live in CT on breaks. Its their way or the highway basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 On Storm Vista, the precipitation begins between 0z-6z Thursday night/Friday early morning. Surface temps in the low to middle 20s as well as 850s well below 0C. This continues through maybe 15z-18z Friday with temperatures in the upper 20s and 850 between -4C and -2C. By 18z, the 850 0C line pushes NE and all of VT is above 0C at 850. However, surface temps from the spine eastward and northeastward are below 32F, so it looks to me like a wintry mix of some sort sounding (haven't seen exact layering and its too early for that anyway). By 0z Friday evening everthing ends as snow with temperatures 28-32F around the region. Total QPF is anywhere from .75-1.00" for all of northern VT with the 1" line from KRUT-KLEB with probably 75% of it in the form of snow for the northern 1/3 of VT outside the Champlain Valley. Potential for sure. Jesus H... its that wet for northern VT? That seems excessive but who knows. Amazing since the American models are all like a 0.25" or less up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 AGREEEEEE! I get both viewpoint as I live in CT on breaks. Its their way or the highway basically. well of course that is true to some extent, but very understandable. but I find the guys often give info on CNE NNE and always will if you ask. As far as I can tell from Dendrite and Jeff we in central NH would get a few inches of snow and then mix and/or rain...but the shortwave interaction is complicated so it could shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Jesus H... its that wet for northern VT? That seems excessive but who knows. Amazing since the American models are all like a 0.25" or less up this way. Yeah all of N VT has over .75" of accumulated precip by 12z Saturday morning. I think the GFS may be having a tough time handling the energy between systems, therefore almost stringing out the Thurs/Fri event in anticipation of the next s/w approaching from the southwest where it bombs out the second weekend low. Personally, it's going to be one or the other. I can't imagine both systems being robust. the EURO strengthens Friday more and doesn't have the weekend low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 AGREEEEEE! I get both viewpoint as I live in CT on breaks. Its their way or the highway basically. LOL--I was only busting. No biggie, really. I glean what I can and the weather does what she will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 from byx LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS SHOWING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THEN RAIN ALONG THE COAST. IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A MIXED BAG WITH MOSTLY SNOW INDICATED FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE COAST BEFORE ANY CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 At the same time, I am analyzing 500mb vort on both the GFS and EURO, and it seems that the EURO is holding back some northern stream energy and allowing it to have more time to phase with the southern stream, thus resulting in a more amplified and juiced up solution. At hour 54, you can see how the GFS is SO close to phasing the northern and southern energy, but the northern energy scoots out ahead and is strung out, thus delivering a weaker 2-4" snowfall. Pretty cool stuff I'm learning in my MET classes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Pretty cool stuff I'm learning in my MET classes Sweet dude--thanks for your pro-in-the-making analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Friday-Saturday event SMELLS fishy. Needs time to resolve itself. The GFS just doesn't feel right. The Euro seems too wet. I'm getting the feeling that if we go more amplified we get more rain. If we stay weaker it's colder. That's been the pattern this winter for other events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 anyone know if the euro ensembles give a clue for thurs-fri and sat-sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Friday-Saturday event SMELLS fishy. Needs time to resolve itself. The GFS just doesn't feel right. The Euro seems too wet. I'm getting the feeling that if we go more amplified we get more rain. If we stay weaker it's colder. That's been the pattern this winter for other events. EURO is def too wet IMO. GFS probably too dry due to strung out solution. Probably a 3-6" event is in order the way it stands now. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Sweet dude--thanks for your pro-in-the-making analysis. No problem! Finally getting into the real MET stuff so anything I pick up will go into analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Friday-Saturday event SMELLS fishy. Needs time to resolve itself. The GFS just doesn't feel right. The Euro seems too wet. I'm getting the feeling that if we go more amplified we get more rain. If we stay weaker it's colder. That's been the pattern this winter for other events. 3.2" then mix or rain...I'm calling it now haha. In other words a 2-4" event with icy and crusty crap to ruin the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Jesus H... its that wet for northern VT? That seems excessive but who knows. Amazing since the American models are all like a 0.25" or less up this way. 18z gfs juiced up...not as much as the euro but looks like .4 for you. The .50" line is just SE of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Near 32F now with much better snow growth so colder air must finally be moving into the orographic lift zone. Flakes are finally sticking to cars and other surfaces here at Topnotch on the MTN Rd. It's very light though as in if this kept up all night we'd get less than an inch haha. Still nice to see weenie flakes after the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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