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NNE Heart of Winter


Allenson

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BTV re Friday updated discussion

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...FOR FRIDAY...WX OVER THE CWA WILL BE

DOMINATED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LKS REGION. THIS SYSTEM

WILL LIFT THRU THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...AND UP INTO QUEBEC

BY FRIDAY NGT. W/ CD AIR WORKING IN AROUND BROAD UPPER LOW...DO

EXPECT PRECIP AS ALL SNOW FRIDAY. MDL QPF HINTS AT NEAR HALF INCH

W/ STRONG JET DYNAMICS DRAGGING UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH

INITIALLY. 40-60KT POTENTIAL ON BUFKIT COMBINED W/ UPSLOPE

DYNAMICS COULD GIVE HIR ELEV 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...W/ VALLEY

LOCALES AROUND 1-2 INCHES. FRI NGT THRU LATE SATURDAY...CWA

REMAINS UNDER NNW FLOW...KEEPING CHANCE FOR -SW W/ FOCUS OVER

NORTHERN ZONES FRI NGT...THEN GOING INTO LATE SATURDAY HIR ELEV

ESPECIALLY IN NE VT BFR TAPERING OFF. DO EXPECT HIR ELEV TO SEE

LGT ACCUM BFR SNOW ENDS W/ DUSTING IN MOST VALLEY LOCALES.

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Was wondering if they were going to pull the trigger now or overnight. SREFs came south ... all guidance indicates we're getting a good snowstorm. Gonna get the sleds ready for the weekend.

I'd say the 50% confidence level has been reached. ;)

The 15z SREF is also increasing snowfall probs too. Greater than 8" is now up to 33% for the foothills, with mean 12 hr snowfall around 6" running from Conway through Augusta.

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I'd say the 50% confidence level has been reached. ;)

The 15z SREF is also increasing snowfall probs too. Greater than 8" is now up to 33% for the foothills, with mean 12 hr snowfall around 6" running from Conway through Augusta.

Nam keeps ramping up qpf, But think its over done around 1.00" looks like a safe bet

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Nam keeps ramping up qpf, But think its over done around 1.00" looks like a safe bet

Yeah, duration is going to be the limiting factor here. I think we get our normal 9-12 hour thump and with snow ratios marginal that should leave use in that solid 6-9" with some double digit lollipops.

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Yeah, duration is going to be the limiting factor here. I think we get our normal 9-12 hour thump and with snow ratios marginal that should leave use in that solid 6-9" with some double digit lollipops.

No blocking...FTL, Between 7-9:1 ratios were the last 2 storms here thanksgiving and halloween, This looks to go the same way

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And snow core. 5.3" of water in 25" of depth. Decent amount of rain water in there from the weekly rainstorms we got through December.

I was curious about what we had here at the house, so I ran an analysis this evening and found 1.43” of liquid in the snowpack, which is at a depth of 4.5”. Not surprisingly, the snow here is a bit denser than up at 3,000’. I recorded 1.24” of total liquid at this location from the December 27th-28th storm, so that is clearly a major component of the snowpack. There shouldn’t be anything going on tonight in terms of precipitation, so I’ll send the snowpack data in with my CoCoRaHS report in the morning. If I have time I’ll try to do another one next week to see how it’s changed. It would be nice to have one of those snow samplers though – that looks pretty slick. BTV actually has a page on how to make one. In an average winter season at 3,000’ around here, I bet you would eventually be pushing the limits with only a 5-foot tube on your sampler.

I did one last quick snow board check and so the totals for this minor event will be as follows:

3,000ft High Road: 1.8" (25" snow depth)

1,500ft Barnes Camp: 1.0" (8" snow depth)

Here at 800ft it looks like 0.4" and there's around 5.5" of snow on the ground.

Here at the house today at 500ft we picked up 0.2” of snow, comprised of a trace of liquid; that seems to fit in pretty nicely with the elevation trend of your accumulations.

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