J.Spin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ripping pretty good here all the sudden as these 25-30dbz echos move over head. Should have another good burst here in 10-15 minutes as that cluster of 30-35dbz moves into the mountain. As of ~8:45 A.M., we’re just starting to see flakes here in Burlington – latest radar below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Morning models bumped up qpf nicely, might be looking at 6-10" here if they verify. Last winter the Rumford-to-Skowhegan Route 2 corridor missed all the good bands except for the April fools event, getting 6-9" in Dec-Feb storms while folks away from Route 2 had 12-18". Usually we do better than that. At least we should get a WS watch out of this; 1st one since the pre-Thanksgiving storm. Fortunately, my all-day meeting Thursday is in AUG rather than its usual BGR location - 30 miles of snow-driving is much better than 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 old eta rule is cut the qpf by 1/3... That's unfortunate then, lol. No one gets more than 1/3 of an inch of QPF with that rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That's unfortunate then, lol. No one gets more than 1/3 of an inch of QPF with that rule. I understand that to be the general rule i coastals...but the mets know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So I just took the Adirondack Snow Sampler out to do snow core measurements at the 3,000ft snow plot. First of all... there was another 1.2" overnight and this morning on the snow board. It just boggles my mind how much snow falls up there. It is my "happy place" haha... and a weenies dream location. Just sitting there in the forest with snow everywhere clinging to every branch... its like living in a snow globe. The snow depth is still 25" as the snow that's been falling is very fluffy and doesn't add much to the pack. Out of those 25 inches, I did 8 cores and got an average ready of 5.25" of water weight. Very interesting stuff and it will be cool to see how that changes over the course of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z Nam ramps up qpf here 1.00-1.25", This is going to be fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm very positive about this upcoming event. LArge moist vort max troughs + green spine = a lot of snow. I'm in. No doubt in my mind that whatever the first low does, the story is that second lingering low out of the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wow, the NAM is just a snow bomb for the eastern dacks from SLK to GFL. I still doubt we see much if anything back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is all snow pretty much north of S.NH and S.VT... QPF totals for both the first system and then the upper level low. I wish we could lock this in, but its the NAM and that worries me. It did follow the 3z ETA though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is all snow pretty much north of S.NH and S.VT... QPF totals for both the first system and then the upper level low. I wish we could lock this in, but its the NAM and that worries me. It did follow the 3z ETA though, lol. Amazingly enough, the 12z NAM has you even flirting with IP. It warms up to -1 at 800 mb around 15z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Waiting on the Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Waiting on the Euro.... I'm hoping it trends even cooler. Too much messy stuff is already on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Amazingly enough, the 12z NAM has you even flirting with IP. It warms up to -1 at 800 mb around 15z Thursday. -1c is fine. Mansfield makes snow at -1c. when we get +1c at 750mb is when we get totally sharted on. The colling from the orographic uplift is enough to work the snow machine at -1c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 -1c is fine. Mansfield makes snow at -1c. when we get +1c at 750mb is when we get totally sharted on. The colling from the orographic uplift is enough to work the snow machine at -1c. Absolutely, looks like things trended very well for ski country. No disaster washout scenario. I was more speaking from a natural snow perspective, where ratios don't look amazing. But hopefully forcing can overcome that for a period of time and see some 1"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm hoping it trends even cooler. Too much messy stuff is already on the table. I think we see some IP taint or some Frzrn at some point, It also looks to end as Frzdrzl once the surface low passes to the NE, 850's lookk like they could warm for a bit, We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think we see some IP taint or some Frzrn at some point, It also looks to end as Frzdrzl once the surface low passes to the NE, 850's lookk like they could warm for a bit, We shall see Yeah, looking at GFS on wunderground ... it's a friggin' sleet/ice storm. 2m temps stay below zero but higher up ... naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Waiting on the Euro.... Sounds like it looks good based on what you said in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Absolutely, looks like things trended very well for ski country. No disaster washout scenario. I was more speaking from a natural snow perspective, where ratios don't look amazing. But hopefully forcing can overcome that for a period of time and see some 1"/hr rates. This storm screams crummy ratios to me... historically anytime we have mid level warming from H85 up through H7 and even above, we always end up with needles and almost snow pellets. It pours snow straight down and is good for base building, but this is no 20:1 fluff like we've been seeing lately. I'd probably go 8:1 and no higher than 10:1 ratios for this. Now the upper level low is a whole other story following that H85 -10C line in. That upper level low stuff is usually fluff on top of the dense synoptic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 As of ~8:45 A.M., we’re just starting to see flakes here in Burlington – latest radar below: I did one last quick snow board check and so the totals for this minor event will be as follows: 3,000ft High Road: 1.8" (25" snow depth) 1,500ft Barnes Camp: 1.0" (8" snow depth) Here at 800ft it looks like 0.4" and there's around 5.5" of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This storm screams crummy ratios to me... historically anytime we have mid level warming from H85 up through H7 and even above, we always end up with needles and almost snow pellets. It pours snow straight down and is good for base building, but this is no 20:1 fluff like we've been seeing lately. I'd probably go 8:1 and no higher than 10:1 ratios for this. Now the upper level low is a whole other story following that H85 -10C line in. That upper level low stuff is usually fluff on top of the dense synoptic snows. I agree with this. Euro verbatim is a wet/heavy synoptic snow followed by big ULL and upslope in the greens. This is about as ideal a scenario as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just over an inch on the board at 8:30am, total of 1.8" for this minor event. The scene around the snow measuring area. A snow lovers dream. And this is a bad winter. Adirondack Snow Sampler... And snow core. 5.3" of water in 25" of depth. Decent amount of rain water in there from the weekly rainstorms we got through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'd probably go 8:1 and no higher than 10:1 ratios for this. Now the upper level low is a whole other story following that H85 -10C line in. That upper level low stuff is usually fluff on top of the dense synoptic snows. Even with crummy ratios or sleet, that the usual “right side up” combination that makes for great days on the mountain – put down the dense material to cover up the areas that need it and smooth out the imperfections, then bring on the fluff. The December 27th-28th storm did this to some degree, but the more frozen the better. We’ve really not had many of these yet this season (obviously, with the lack of synoptic storms), so if this one works out that way it would be great for the slopes – you get the immediate return of a good day in the fluff, with the long-term reward of base building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I agree with this. Euro verbatim is a wet/heavy synoptic snow followed by big ULL and upslope in the greens. This is about as ideal a scenario as possible. I could see something play out like 3-4" of dense snow/sleet on Thursday, followed by like 6-8" drier inches with the upper level low and upslope flow. I really doubt we see more than 3-5" with that first shot Wed night/Thursday. But then it starts ripping 1"+/hr dendrites with NW flow and the upper trough on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm supposed to fly out of Manchester NH Friday early, so it's certain to snow here at home in central VT, then I will be gone most of the weekend, adding more certainty of snow. ;-) Honestly I would be very happy with dense stuff like the ratios you mentioned Powderfreak, we need a lot of that and then some nice upsloping afterwards. I come home again on Sunday and may need to start thinking about some time off to make up for all the lost weekend days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I could see something play out like 3-4" of dense snow/sleet on Thursday, followed by like 6-8" drier inches with the upper level low and upslope flow. I really doubt we see more than 3-5" with that first shot Wed night/Thursday. But then it starts ripping 1"+/hr dendrites with NW flow and the upper trough on Friday. You really deepen the snow growth zone Friday as temperatures crash behind the surface trough. GFS progs the DGZ to run from the surface up through around 750 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sounds like it looks good based on what you said in the other thread. It was, You guys get hit pretty good on friday verbatium with the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I agree with this. Euro verbatim is a wet/heavy synoptic snow followed by big ULL and upslope in the greens. This is about as ideal a scenario as possible. You betcha. 5-7 of heavy stuff followed by 5-7 of light stuff means I better go get the cambered skis mounted up tomorrow. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You betcha. 5-7 of heavy stuff followed by 5-7 of light stuff means I better go get the cambered skis mounted up tomorrow. Game on. you guys are getting me excited. putting the wheels in motion to cancel a friday afternoon meeting in Brooklyn. Drive up from NY friday night should be fine, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 BTV has updated our local point and click to include sleet and freezing drizzle. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Peacham&state=VT&site=BTV&textField1=44.33&textField2=-72.17&e=1 Wednesday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.Thursday: Snow before noon, then snow and sleet. High near 29. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Night: Freezing drizzle likely before 4am, then a chance of sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday: Snow likely, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GYX has posted a Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 304 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... .LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SPREAD A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST...AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT CREATES A MIX ALONG THE COAST AND IMMEDIATE INTERIOR. SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH COULD YIELD SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS TIME. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS YOU NEAR THE COAST. AS SNOW WINDS DOWN THURSDAY EVENING...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL. MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ001>010-110500- /O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0001.120112T0900Z-120113T0300Z/ NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET- SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK- INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO- NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL- SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP- STRAFFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...ROXBURY...UPTON... WILSONS MILLS...COBURN GORE...RANGELEY...KINGFIELD...BINGHAM... JACKMAN...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...FARMINGTON... WILTON...MADISON...SKOWHEGAN...PITTSFIELD...SANFORD...BERWICK... NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEWISTON-AUBURN... LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...WINTERPORT...UNITY... COLEBROOK...BERLIN...LANCASTER...LITTLETON...NORTH CONWAY... LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT... NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH... ROCHESTER...DOVER 304 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE...THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM THERE. THURSDAY MORNING SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...COLD TEMPERATURES PRECEDING SNOW WILL HELP THEM BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY SHORTLY AFTER ONSET. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...HEAVY SNOWFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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