NNE Heart of Winter

[Allenson]

new thread for the new year?????????

I second this and so it shall be.

Cloudy, kind of damp, 33F on New Year's morning. All is quiet. Go!

[powderfreak]

Just posted this in the old thread but will post over here to start the New Year...

Snowfall totals at the ski area for December 2011 were lackluster compared to the 60+ inches we are used to at the summit. In general I expect between 60-80" during the main winter months up top, with the big months exceeding 100", and well, the poor months around 40".

1,550ft... 24"

3,600ft... 39"

Total snowfall so far during the operating season (11/23 onward) is just depressing...

1,550ft... 33"

3,600ft... 51"

[powderfreak]

31F with freezing fog, mist, and drizzle. Everything is iced up a bit.

[powderfreak]

Here's some food for thought...

BTV starts it off with 2-4" tonight followed by heavy snow squalls for 36 hours.

BTV WRF smokes Mansfield/Stowe/Bolton area, and then also Jay Peak with another band.

That bullseye is like right over J.Spin's house, lol.

12-hour total:

24 hour total... Green Mountain powder league. We can do well with a WSW flow at H85 if there's Ontario moisture involved. If you get lucky you get get a foot of fluff very quickly from Great Lake moisture plus upsloping flow.

And here's the first 24 hour period including tonight's mountain snowfall, lower elevation rain/snow.

Game on NNE.

[MaineJayhawk]

Cold and dry incoming for us lower el folks. 21F and frosty. Enjoy the flakes, highlanders!

[Lava Rock]

Rain showers tonite, no snow in the forecast. Freakin' depressing. I welcome the cold coming, but not having any snow on the ground is wearing thin.

[J.Spin]

Here's some food for thought...

BTV starts it off with 2-4" tonight followed by heavy snow squalls for 36 hours.

Now that’s what one wants to see in a mountain forecast – it’s always nice to see the Heavy Snow icon showing its face. After enjoying the temperatures in the 30s F yesterday on the slopes I’m not necessarily psyched to deal with the sub zero and single digit numbers out there (I’m not Pete) but that’s not actually all that cold in the grand scheme of things, thousands of feet up in Northern Vermont in January. So it’s a small price to pay for cranking up the Green Mountain snow machine.

BTV WRF smokes Mansfield/Stowe/Bolton area, and then also Jay Peak with another band.

That bullseye is like right over J.Spin's house, lol.

Game on NNE.

LOL, you’re killin’ me PF – I should be trying to get back into work mode next week. But, Mother Nature lives by her own rules and schedules. The numbers are blurry, but it looked like 0.66” of liquid for that period when I zoomed in on the BTV WRF. Let’s hope it’s game on indeed, documenting the liquid equivalent would be fun and informative. I do like your insurance policy analogy with regard to our upslope snowfall for the resorts though. While they may lack the 10,000’ elevation snow preservation properties that some spots in the Rockies have, the Greens are certainly something special.

[dryslot]

Maybe some snow with the FROPA but thats about it

[adk]

PF- somebody is getting a foot EASY if that pattern stays put for 24 hours. EASY. w/sw flow, warm lake, -12c air. Oh yea.

In other news I'm going to bet that Whiteface gets crushed more than the greens. WSW funnels up some passes in the High Peaks and just runs smack into WF. I've seen it go 50% over stowe in these events. Also I'd watch the MRG area.

[TalcottWx]

Best mountain to hit tomorrow?

[Ginx snewx]

Best mountain to hit tomorrow?

Tomorrow, Sugarbush. Wind holds Tuesday wherever you go

[TalcottWx]

Tomorrow, Sugarbush. Wind holds Tuesday wherever you go

MRG is the cheapest of them all it appears though

[powderfreak]

PF- somebody is getting a foot EASY if that pattern stays put for 24 hours. EASY. w/sw flow, warm lake, -12c air. Oh yea.

In other news I'm going to bet that Whiteface gets crushed more than the greens. WSW funnels up some passes in the High Peaks and just runs smack into WF. I've seen it go 50% over stowe in these events. Also I'd watch the MRG area.

Yeah I was thinking that... someone in the Adirondacks is really going to take this on the chin (no Mansfield pun intended, ha). And it may not be the usual 'Dack upslope area but wherever that Ontario band sets up.

I really do like how the WRF at 12z and the 18z NAM now, too, put that Ontario/upslope connection band still right into the Camels Hump-Mansfield stretch of the Greens.

And if you really want to weenie out, if this were to be the orientation of the band, and it funnels down the Winooski Valley, J.Spin will get absolutely destroyed. I've seen the Lake Ontario-Upslope-Winooski Valley convergence trifecta before and that's when all lleh breaks loose in that area. Maybe we can shut down I-89 in that area again for the second time in a week, haha. As WSW air funnels into the Winooski Valley its forced between the 3,000ft walls on either side of the narrow valley and you just watch as 30-40dbz continues to roll through that area.

It will be very fun to watch how this all plays out. It is so hard to forecast though because the players are all on the field but you never actually know if its going to come together or not. It could be a widespread fluffy 10-18" up and down the Spine or it is just kind of "meh" with 48 hour totals of only 4-8". You just never really know.

[powderfreak]

Tomorrow, Sugarbush. Wind holds Tuesday wherever you go

Sugarbush is prone to wind holds on a more southerly trajectory to the westerly flow (tomorrow) while Stowe is prone with more of a northerly trajectory (Tuesday). Just food for thought, we'll see how it plays out. And with snow incoming, Sugarbush should be able to get the 40 trails they closed today back open, or at least a good bit of them.

[CT Rain]

Yeah I was thinking that... someone in the Adirondacks is really going to take this on the chin (no Mansfield pun intended, ha). And it may not be the usual 'Dack upslope area but wherever that Ontario band sets up.

I really do like how the WRF at 12z and the 18z NAM now, too, put that Ontario/upslope connection band still right into the Camels Hump-Mansfield stretch of the Greens.

And if you really want to weenie out, if this were to be the orientation of the band, and it funnels down the Winooski Valley, J.Spin will get absolutely destroyed. I've seen the Lake Ontario-Upslope-Winooski Valley convergence trifecta before and that's when all lleh breaks loose in that area. Maybe we can shut down I-89 in that area again for the second time in a week, haha. As WSW air funnels into the Winooski Valley its forced between the 3,000ft walls on either side of the narrow valley and you just watch as 30-40dbz continues to roll through that area.

It will be very fun to watch how this all plays out. It is so hard to forecast though because the players are all on the field but you never actually know if its going to come together or not. It could be a widespread fluffy 10-18" up and down the Spine or it is just kind of "meh" with 48 hour totals of only 4-8". You just never really know.

This year 4-8 is more than meh. This looks pretty classic upslope to me with a nice lakes connection. The question IMO is who south of MRG/sugarbush cashes in. Could killington see a foot?

I think things look great for PF/jspin at this point

[powderfreak]

This year 4-8 is more than meh. This looks pretty classic upslope to me with a nice lakes connection. The question IMO is who south of MRG/sugarbush cashes in. Could killington see a foot?

I think things look great for PF/jspin at this point

What's interesting is that the meso-scale models have been pin pointing southern Greens (Bennington/Windham Counties) around Mount Snow for some locally high QPF values from moisture coming all the way from Lake Erie. WSW flow riding up Erie and then across NY state and upsloping east of ALB. Probably one of those situations where you aren't going to see a huge band developing all that way but the Great Lakes help the Greens out by adding just enough low level moisture to the atmosphere that when it starts to upslope it really wrings it out.

[TalcottWx]

What's interesting is that the meso-scale models have been pin pointing southern Greens (Bennington/Windham Counties) around Mount Snow for some locally high QPF values from moisture coming all the way from Lake Erie. WSW flow riding up Erie and then across NY state and upsloping east of ALB. Probably one of those situations where you aren't going to see a huge band developing all that way but the Great Lakes help the Greens out by adding just enough low level moisture to the atmosphere that when it starts to upslope it really wrings it out.

MRG?

[CT Rain]

I'm wondering if Stratton can squeeze out an inch or two of snow tonight. Looks like a relatively isothermal layer near 0c above 2kft. Upper mtn especially may have some fresh snow in the am.

[powderfreak]

MRG?

The winner up here is going to be wherever the Lake Ontario moisture train sets up. It looks like it starts to develop tomorrow afternoon so we should start to see signs of where it'll go by midday tomorrow. Tomorrow's conditions are likely not going to be that good, haha. It got just warm enough today to loosen the snow, and last night/this morning we actually saw up to 1/4" of freezing mist. Its done wonders for the snowpack though as what is on the ground on the mountain is now thaw proof, but it won't be all that enjoyable until we get 6" of snow or so.

Given the conditions of our natural snow trails this afternoon, I can't imagine MRG with no grooming will be all that great tomorrow. Sugarbush would be a better bet in that area like Ginx said, just because they actually do some grooming.

This morning's 1/4" of freezing mist.

[adk]

That mesoscale heavy point down around Bennington/Windham never plays out as well as the models would indicate.

In 2009...yea 2009 I think...one of these lake bands set up in an almost IDENTICAL PATTERN. MRG was CRUSHED.

Proof:

http://www.famousint...-snow-on-earth/

PF I do think Mansfield gets a good six anyway...regardless of where that banding really establishes itself.

[TalcottWx]

The winner up here is going to be wherever the Lake Ontario moisture train sets up. It looks like it starts to develop tomorrow afternoon so we should start to see signs of where it'll go by midday tomorrow. Tomorrow's conditions are likely not going to be that good, haha. It got just warm enough today to loosen the snow, and last night/this morning we actually saw up to 1/4" of freezing mist. Its done wonders for the snowpack though as what is on the ground on the mountain is now thaw proof, but it won't be all that enjoyable until we get 6" of snow or so.

Given the conditions of our natural snow trails this afternoon, I can't imagine MRG with no grooming will be all that great tomorrow. Sugarbush would be a better bet in that area like Ginx said, just because they actually do some grooming.

This morning's 1/4" of freezing mist.

I want to see heavy snow...

[powderfreak]

That mesoscale heavy point down around Bennington/Windham never plays out as well as the models would indicate.

In 2009...yea 2009 I think...one of these lake bands set up in an almost IDENTICAL PATTERN. MRG was CRUSHED.

Proof:

http://www.famousint...-snow-on-earth/

PF I do think Mansfield gets a good six anyway...regardless of where that banding really establishes itself.

Yeah I remember that one... but honestly its a crapshoot at this point. Where ever that band sets up someone will get upslope plus lake effect which equals win. MRG needs an almost due westerly flow and this looks more WSW to me. Pure SW flow puts the band up near Jay Peak, seen that plenty of times, too, across the northern 'Dacks into Jay. This time it looks like Jay gets its snow from all the way over at Lake Huron. WNW flow goes to Killington. It all depends on the exact trajectory so I'm just following where the meso-scale models have it going which seems to be centered around Bolton Valley.

Now west facing Bolton is a spot that'll get crushed. Their snow totals could be pretty darn sweet.

[skierinvermont]

All rain now (maybe zr)

After I posted this it actually flipped back to snow once the intensity picked up giving .5" followed by rain then another .25". That was 12/27 - 28.

Then yesterday morning there was .5" before the rain again.

Current snow pack is around 2" at 2300' and 6-8" above 3000'. I haven't been above 3500' in a few days.

I also have around 2" in the backyard at 1550' which is mostly shaded.

Neither rain storm was terribly damaging because it was cold and not much rain fell, but we haven't seen much snow either.

[TalcottWx]

WOW... the plateau in upstate NY.... Monday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

[powderfreak]

I want to see heavy snow...

Tug Hill will be measuring snow in feet with 50mph winds.

For snow starved folks I'd be making a bee line for east of Lake Ontario.

[powderfreak]

WOW... the plateau in upstate NY.... Monday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

lol I responded to you at the same time with the same train of thought... Tug Hill will be where its at.

[TalcottWx]

lol I responded to you at the same time with the same train of thought... Tug Hill will be where its at.

I wish I could go. So bad. It hurts.

[powderfreak]

After I posted this it actually flipped back to snow once the intensity picked up giving .5" followed by rain then another .25". That was 12/27 - 28.

Then yesterday morning there was .5" before the rain again.

Current snow pack is around 2" at 2300' and 6-8" above 3000'. I haven't been above 3500' in a few days.

I also have around 2" in the backyard at 1550' which is mostly shaded.

Neither rain storm was terribly damaging because it was cold and not much rain fell, but we haven't seen much snow either.

To compare, we finally got our 3,000ft snow plot set up the other day (as there's now enough snow to even get there) and so we are ready to rock and roll with the "official" snow depth measurements. Remember the 3,000ft snow stake is a full 1,000ft below the summit ridgeline, and 600ft below the top terminals of the ski lifts, so snowfall/depth at the summit could/will be greater. One of our ski patrollers who set this all up chose 3,000ft location because its a good "average" for upper mountain ski terrain, and he wanted to avoid any contamination from blow-in off the 2-mile long summit ridgeline. Any snow plot up around 3,600ft on this side of the mountain would likely be contaminated by wind-loading off the very steep, cliffy 500 vertical foot terrain above.

So today we had 20" of settled depth at 3,000ft, and 8" of depth at 1,500ft. There's 4.5-5" of snow on the ground at my 800ft location.

It will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the next 48 hours with the incoming snowfall.

[hvysnow79]

Temperature rising like crazy about 8 degrees in last hour. Looks like precip is just about to roll in temp at 42F.

I did check ice on pond today about 4-5".

[bch2014]

Skiing Killington tomorrow, it could be extremely bad or pretty good... It all depends on the banding!