packbacker Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Until this flips, I really don't see a reason to be optimistic, yeah the +PNA is nice but without blocking we are screwed. I know, we can get snow with a +NAO, but it's much more difficult. The fact this shows till Feb 10th is scary, as that is 1/3 of the month gone already. Also, the AO forecast isn't that great, essentially neutral, so we have 2 of the 3 telecon's against us. Don't see that as very promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 For the record, not once this year has JB indicated there would be snow threats here in the Carolinas outside of Mountain High Country upslope. He mentioned that the benefits of any flip or Stratospheric warming event driven cold would be north of a Kansas to Southern Ohio to NE line which is where this winters battleground is being played out. In other words, Ohio is in the battle zone this winter that we are normally in here in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 For the record, not once this year has JB indicated there would be snow threats here in the Carolinas outside of Mountain High Country upslope. He mentioned that the benefits of any flip or Stratospheric warming event driven cold would be north of a Kansas to Southern Ohio to NE line which is where this winters battleground is being played out. In other words, Ohio is in the battle zone this winter that we are normally in here in North Carolina. For the record I haven't seen any reasonable poster claim he has said there would be threats for us. He was also wrong if he was indicating those areas would be seeing a bad winter. The only spot that has cashed in, in the US so far has been fooking Seattle Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Until this flips, I really don't see a reason to be optimistic, yeah the +PNA is nice but without blocking we are screwed. I know, we can get snow with a +NAO, but it's much more difficult. The fact this shows till Feb 10th is scary, as that is 1/3 of the month gone already. Also, the AO forecast isn't that great, essentially neutral, so we have 2 of the 3 telecon's against us. Don't see that as very promising. I equally don't trust the long term teleconnection forecasts and the Operational runs. Until any of these gets within seven days, I just don't believe them, whether it's for or against my winter weather bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 January 2011 vs January 2012 in NC Mountains Last year in January, the deer were leg deep in the snow foraging for food. In 2012 in the 2nd picture, January brings us April Daffodils Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You saw a few flakes this season though, right? So far no flakes in most of NC or SC outside the mountains. No sleet either, which is really unusual, as I see some pellets each winter. I think 2006/2007 was the closest to being completely snowless here with around 10 minutes of flurries in February. The most amazing part of this Winter has been the lack of cold air, and how quickly it moves out. More of the same coming up this weekend, and even with that cold air it looks like much of the South won't even get down to normal cold with it. The sunnier weather will really speed up the Spring blooming process next week with all the moisture in the ground and lengthening daylight. yes i have seen a few flakes, probably about 10 min worth of flurries total lol. i didnt expect this winter to be a three-peat. however, i did think we'd have at least a couple of chances and things to watch. going on 7 years since the last big cad/icing event here (prior to 2005 it was a couple a year of at least .2 - .25) mby has had a lot of rain this month but as you say just no cold air i am pretty much to the point of hoping for the 'right timing' with cold and a little moisture to eek out an inch at this point haha. still plenty of time, but the last few years once we lock in to a pattern its hard to change. last year the flip was around mid feb when winter left and didnt return. i hope we flip to at least a week or two of cold in feb. and jeesh we need something to track! i think most of the US hasnt had much to track (except a few places). at least the se isnt suffering alone Well... I've got 26 years on you and I can tell you I've seen some crappy winters, just a crappy or crappier than this. Yes, they all suck. And trust me, you'll never tell your kids about this winter. These aren't the ones that end up standing out. sadly i do remember winters like this....which is why my pessimism is starting to set in lol. i was seeing the writing on the wall earlier this month but still hopeful. the longer we go with no change the less likely (imo) we are to ever get a real winter pattern. i would be happy with an inch at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Until this flips, I really don't see a reason to be optimistic, yeah the +PNA is nice but without blocking we are screwed. I know, we can get snow with a +NAO, but it's much more difficult. The fact this shows till Feb 10th is scary, as that is 1/3 of the month gone already. Also, the AO forecast isn't that great, essentially neutral, so we have 2 of the 3 telecon's against us. Don't see that as very promising. You give me a +PNA reaching up into eastern Alaska, and I will take my chances with a near neutral NAO. Some very good events have occurred for parts of the midsouth and Carolinas with this scenerio. Plenty of reasons to become optimistic IF the PNA ridging comes about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You give me a +PNA reaching up into eastern Alaska, and I will take my chances with a near neutral NAO. Some very good events have occurred for parts of the midsouth and Carolinas with this scenerio. Plenty of reasons to become optimistic IF the PNA ridging comes about. thats the main issue now, and also why pessimism is seeping in to more of us. i have seen nothing, really, to indicate that it will ever come about (at least in time to help most of us in teh SE, outside the mountains). it hasnt changed yet basically all winter and there is no real reason to believe it will anytime soon. none of the models have shown a huge arctic outbreak recently, so at the best maybe normal temps. we can still get winter wx, but it would be anemic at the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hilariously awesome!The CMC and JMA have better verification scores! The JMA! THE JMA! THE F***ING JMA! hahahahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hilariously awesome! The CMC and JMA have better verification scores! The JMA! THE JMA! THE F***ING JMA! hahahahaha! Now that is funny stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 For the record I haven't seen any reasonable poster claim he has said there would be threats for us. He was also wrong if he was indicating those areas would be seeing a bad winter. The only spot that has cashed in, in the US so far has been fooking Seattle Washington. well for the record if you look at his winter forecast back in August he said SOUTHEAST would not get much if anything this winter. But we can go on and on about it but we need to post facts when we do discuss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wow the southeast forum really went to **** today and last night... Where the fook is Lookout and WeatherNC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yep. Same question here.... Wow the southeast forum really went to **** today and last night... Where the fook is Lookout and WeatherNC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 They did mention if you have problems to use the report button. I think that gets to them, as with so little going on, they aren't in here as much as they would be otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wow the southeast forum really went to **** today and last night... Where the fook is Lookout and WeatherNC? yeah I wonder the same. I have never been personally attacked on here to the degree it has been today. Most of the posts have been deleted. I think Midlo took care of alot of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 What happened now??? In this thread? If so, pretty much anything goes except attacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 yeah I wonder the same. I have never been personally attacked on here to the degree it has been today. Most of the posts have been deleted. I think Midlo took care of alot of that. Glad I missed it. The "no snow" Winter sure brings out the best in people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Queen Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hey everyone, haven't been on in awhile. I have been waiting for some exciting winter weather to happen. I see lots of other things have been happening! Looks like some winter potential on the horizon too, well maybe...if the models don't flip again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 yeah I wonder the same. I have never been personally attacked on here to the degree it has been today. Most of the posts have been deleted. I think Midlo took care of alot of that. lol, I made one post that was fairly tame. Simmer down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hey everyone, haven't been on in awhile. I have been waiting for some exciting winter weather to happen. I see lots of other things have been happening! Looks like some winter potential on the horizon too, well maybe...if the models don't flip again! Yea! Someone besides guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I found a podcast from last years event in Mid January and listened to it this morning. How depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Queen Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yea! Someone besides guys! Yep, just checking in during lunch. I don't post often because I don't know how to read/analyze the models to contribute to your expert discussions, but I can guage by your conversations if there is a glimmer of hope or nada. What a boring winter this has been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Damn..... I found a podcast from last years event in Mid January and listened to it this morning. How depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I found a podcast from last years event in Mid January and listened to it this morning. How depressing. Why would you torture yourself like that? God I miss those live podcasts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I think I can send it to anyone that wants it. It's in two pieces(5AM and 6AM) from WBT in charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yea! Someone besides guys! Hey....I guess the other ladies here do not qualify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hey....I guess the other ladies here do not qualify? There are only about 4 of you here, 1 more is a big increase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Give credit where credit is due. WidreMann nailed the winter forecast (so far anyway) from way back in September................................................... 2010!!!!!!!! Okay 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 There are only about 4 of you here, 1 more is a big increase! Yes it is I believe the SE forum has more women posters than the others, and while it only adds up to a few compared to the men, I'm glad they feel comfortable enough to continue to post here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yes it is I believe the SE forum has more women posters than the others, and while it only adds up to a few compared to the men, I'm glad they feel comfortable enough to continue to post here I love my SE family on here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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