Feast or Famine wasn't really the pattern for Maryland winters west of the fall line

[gymengineer]

I looked over the seasonal snowfall totals for several stations (both COOP and ACON) and noticed that west of I-95 in Maryland, we didn't really follow the feast/famine winter scenario over the past 20 winters that those southeast of us did.

For example, the average seasonal snowfall in Potomac, MD (southeastern Mongtomery County) is about 21". Out of 20 winters:

3 winters were "feast" (09/10, 02/03, 95/96- all >50")

1 was significantly above average (92/93 at 26")

6 were right near average, in a range of 19.5" to 24" (05/06, 04/05, 03/04, 99/00, 98/99, 93/94). Out of those six, three were slightly above average, and three were slightly below average.

3 were signficantly below average (10/11, 06/07, 96/97- all three were 14-15")

7 were "famine" (08/09, 07/08, 01/02, 00/01, 97/98, 94/95, 91/92- all less than 14", or about 2/3 of seasonal average)

I checked other locations, such as Gaithersburg, Clarksburg, etc., and found the same general breakdown, with at most a one winter difference. So, the pattern for us in the past 20 years was feast, average, or famine.

What made the difference was that we cashed in on storms that were mostly mixed precip or rain further southeast of us. 2/21/93, 3/13/93, 3/15/99, 1/30,00, and 12/5-6/03 were all snowstorms where we more than doubled the totals at DCA. Those storms by themselves caused 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, and 03/04 to be better winters for the NW suburbs compared to their own seasonal averages. Also, a bigger hit on 2/11/06 caused 05/06 to be an average or above winter too.

(IAD did not follow this pattern, as 03/04, 04/05, and 05/06 were all significantly below normal there. I do think some measuring issues lately at the airport that we've noted contributed to skewed seasonal totals. For example, there's no way they only got 8" of snow on 2/11/06.)

[BristowWx]

I looked over the seasonal snowfall totals for several stations (both COOP and ACON) and noticed that west of I-95 in Maryland, we didn't really follow the feast/famine winter scenario over the past 20 winters that those southeast of us did.

For example, the average seasonal snowfall in Potomac, MD (southeastern Mongtomery County) is about 21". Out of 20 winters:

3 winters were "feast" (09/10, 02/03, 95/96- all >50")

1 was significantly above average (92/93 at 26")

In the famine years...what was the worst one? Any below 5 inches?

6 were right near average, in a range of 19.5" to 24" (05/06, 04/05, 03/04, 99/00, 98/99, 93/94). Out of those six, three were slightly above average, and three were slightly below average.

3 were signficantly below average (10/11, 06/07, 96/97- all three were 14-15")

7 were "famine" (08/09, 07/08, 01/02, 00/01, 97/98, 94/95, 91/92- all less than 14", or about 2/3 of seasonal average)

I checked other locations, such as Gaithersburg, Clarksburg, etc., and found the same general breakdown, with at most a one winter difference. So, the pattern for us in the past 20 years was feast, average, or famine.

What made the difference was that we cashed in on storms that were mostly mixed precip or rain further southeast of us. 2/21/93, 3/13/93, 3/15/99, 1/30,00, and 12/5-6/03 were all snowstorms where we more than doubled the totals at DCA. Those storms by themselves caused 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, and 03/04 to be better winters for the NW suburbs compared to their own seasonal averages. Also, a bigger hit on 2/11/06 caused 05/06 to be an average or above winter too.

(IAD did not follow this pattern, as 03/04, 04/05, and 05/06 were all significantly below normal there. I do think some measuring issues lately at the airport that we've noted contributed to skewed seasonal totals. For example, there's no way they only got 8" of snow on 2/11/06.)

[Fozz]

I agree, some recent winters, including even last winter, were significantly better west of the fall line.

[Sparky]

I would basically agree since moving here in Dec 93. There have been some satisfying winters that were not great at all closer to DC/Balto but were OK here even though they were still slightly below the normal of 35 inches.

93/94 - 30.5" but horrible still for the excessive freezing rain/sleet

98/99 - 25.3" well below but a fun March with 18".

00/01 - 30.5"

03/04 - 35.5" perfectly normal

04/05 - 31.5" all between Jan. 19 and March 8.

05/06 - 28" well below but great big dumper 17" in Feb.

10/11 - 31.3" fabulous 1/26 storm.