wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Latest raw and adjusted ADT is 6.3...that's around low end cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Latest raw and adjusted ADT is 6.3...that's around low end cat 4. We just had recon in, so it's probably not that strong. Might be able to hit 95-100 knots if it can stay offshore for another 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 We just had recon in, so it's probably not that strong. Might be able to hit 95-100 knots if it can stay offshore for another 6-12 hours. I know, I didn't imply that it was close to becoming a cat 4. My point is that the current structure is already of a major hurricane. BTW, Carlotta is moving at about 335 the last 3 hours....at the current heading and speed she will be over water less than 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 That eye is starting to look *really* nice. The next recon certainly will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 ~340-345 heading the last 2 hours...no time for brakes Carlotta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Probably isn't enough time for another mission. Would have been nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Hopefully there are good obs from Puerto Escondido Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Keep an eye on P.Angel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Keep an eye on P.Angel Oh, I haven't lost sight of it ... that last image is beautiful...I will save it for posterity. Looking at the radar loop, it doesn't look like it's turning...as a matter of fact it's making a beeline for Puerto Angel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 I cannot believe how awesome it looks. Wow-- just wow! It would be so cool if the core passes over an observing station. The radar presentation is just wicked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Are these attached images? We want to make sure they'll be here later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Mine are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 GOES is in RSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 GOES is in RSO Is that a mesovortex I see in the SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Puerto Angel personal(?) station is not reporting anymore...looking at the observations and the current ones in Puerto Escondido, they probably didn't see it coming, with quickly deteriorating conditions...it's about 3 hours from landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Nice bout of RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I think there are more than enough reasons for an upgrade in the intermediate 5pm PDT adivsory. Radar presentation is jaw dropping, and ADT estimates are around 110-120kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 VIS continues to improve. Those towers are near -87C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Puerto Angel looks to be ground zero. They're going to get raked-- probably like they did in Pauline. Jorge, can you post the latest radar still? I'm out and about and so want to see how it's looking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Yowwee. Just totally hawt. Love that core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Yowwee. Just totally hawt. Love that core. Aren't you jealous you're not there? Of course travel there could have been crazy with some land/mudslides... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 IR is degrading a bit, but eyewall is almost over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Aren't you jealous you're not there? Of course travel there could have been crazy with some land/mudslides... Sure I would love to be there. Absolutely. But there was no way to anticipate this one. Even 18 hr ago, it wasn't looking like a good chase subject, with the models and the official forecast showing it just skimming the coast and weakening as it stalled offshore. By the time the setup looked hawt, it was too late. If I had a crystal ball, yeah, I'd be in Puerto Angel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Sure I would love to be there. Absolutely. But there was no way to anticipate this one. Even 18 hr ago, it wasn't looking like a good chase subject, with the models and the official forecast showing it just skimming the coast and weakening as it stalled offshore. By the time the setup looked hawt, it was too late. If I had a crystal ball, yeah, I'd be in Puerto Angel. Yep. Even the front eyewall will be during daylight...bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Something tells me a lot of tiki bars are going to be lost in Puerto Angel: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PlayaPanteonBeach.JPG On a more serious note, hopefully those right on the beach got word of the storm coming in time. Faster forward speed than forecast + sharper angle of approach towards coast + higher intensity than forecast is basically the worst combination possible for catching people off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Something tells me a lot of tiki bars are going to be lost in Puerto Angel: http://en.wikipedia....anteonBeach.JPG On a more serious note, hopefully those right on the beach got word of the storm coming in time. Faster forward speed than forecast + sharper angle of approach towards coast + higher intensity than forecast is basically the worst combination possible for catching people off guard. This reminds me a LOT of Charley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Puerto Angel should be prepared, they are in the hurricane warning zone. But wow, this will make landfall before 12 AM local time tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Puerto Angel should be prepared, they are in the hurricane warning zone. But wow, this will make landfall before 12 AM local time tonight. Probably closer to 8-9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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