wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 We will probably see the eyewall contract significantly today if this occurs. I have been pretty bearish on the intensity forecast of Carlotta, but I agree that it seems to be getting better organized in a hurry. Yep, decent chance of a major in the next 24hrs. Also, altough it might be a wobble or a mirage, but it looks a bit to the right of the forecasted track. I give her >50% chances of peaking at least at cat 2 (90-95kts would be my best guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I would like to add, that areas in the GoT might receive >25" rain the next few days...combine that with mountains and you get a real mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 We will probably see the eyewall contract significantly today if this occurs. I have been pretty bearish on the intensity forecast of Carlotta, but I agree that it seems to be getting better organized in a hurry. It looks like it's already happening based on the latest SSMIS: I don't really like the 85/91 GHz because it can't see the lower level structure. The 37 GHz shows that the area to the S/SE of the center is filled in (cyan = warm clouds/warm rain), but the 91 GHz can't see it because it is below the freezing level. So it isn't surprising that the visible satellite is starting to confirm what was already apparent from the microwave images a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Beven may salvage my call after all... THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 This is becoming an interesting specimen...it looks more likely that it will make landfall now...and probably as a significant hurricane. My call a few days ago is looking pretty good, although I must admit I wasn't very confident back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Even though the angle of approach is less than ideal, it looks likely the strongest winds will affect land just west of Puerto Angel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Carlotta already within radar's range. She looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I agree with much of the above discussion that Carlotta improved significantly overnight and does have a chance at becoming a major. Deep convection has really wrapped all the way around the center of circulation in the last frame of visible imagery. I think one thing going against that tho is that the system is already so close to such mountainous topography. It looks to me on the water vapor that there is still a bit of dry air wrapping into the center of circulation, even tho the environment is quite moist and the dry air to the northwest does not appear to be advecting very much into the circulation. There's a chance that some dry adiabatic downsloping off the topography to the north could already be having a negative impact on the circulation strength, especially now that Carlotta is west of the flatter topography that Phil was talking about while it's movement becomes increasingly parallel to the coast (e.g. some of the weakening of Pauline 1997 and John 2006 as they paralleled the coast could be attributed to this). Sometimes a TC can overcome this if the environment is sufficiently favorable, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 There's a dry moat making it's way to the eye...but the latest MW imagery is quite nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 ADT, which should be fairly accurate with an IR eye, shows T5.3, almost to a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Wow-- it just looks awesome! Very nice. A slight wobble to the right and Puerto Angel could get raked by the right eyewall. The setup and track is very reminiscient of Pauline 1997, which I mentioned above. The right eyewall raked the town as the center passed just offshore at Cat-4 intensity; the cyclone came ashore further up the coast as a 95-kt Cat 2 and it skimmed along the coast, eventually passing over Acapulco as an unraveling Cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Nice... looks like it's going annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 976 mb extrap. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC) Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 17:44Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305) Storm Number & Year: 03E in 2012 Storm Name: Carlotta (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 17:25:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°18'N 96°07'W (14.3N 96.1167W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 144 miles (232 km) to the SSW (205°) from Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,912m (9,554ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 92kts (From the SE at ~ 105.9mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:20:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (47°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Cool, 903mb extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Cool, 903mb extrapolated damn!! but if the pressure is really 974 mb that is a pretty fast drop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 87kts SFMR...and looks like there was a decent wobble to the right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC) Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 19:20Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305) Storm Number & Year: 03E in 2012 Storm Name: Carlotta (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 15 A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 18:56:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°29'N 96°15'W (14.4833N 96.25W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 137 miles (221 km) to the SSW (211°) from Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,911m (9,551ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 227° at 84kts (From the SW at ~ 96.7mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 976mb (28.82 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Closed Wall M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:20:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Pressure, SFMR and FL winds all support 85kts. Cold cloud tops feverishly trying to surround the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Will it get to major status? It's certainly pushing for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 98kts SFMR, and another one of 96kts...central pressure steady at around 975mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Will it get to major status? It's certainly pushing for it I think it is certainly likely that this could be a major by the 2 AM PDT advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Dropsondes have shown a profile where 700mb winds are roughly equivalent to surface winds...so my guess is that the upgrade for the 2pm pdt advisory will be to around 90kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I think it is certainly likely that this could be a major by the 2 AM PDT advisory. very close to landfall time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 99FL winds...it's getting close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Anyone know why recon isn't updating in google earth? Also, I wrote a forecast/summary of Carlotta on my blog a little while ago: http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Anyone know why recon isn't updating in google earth? Also, I wrote a forecast/summary of Carlotta on my blog a little while ago: http://weather.schematical.com/ There was a problem with the site during obs 47 (the one with 99FL winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Advisory is out...rapidly intensifying...90kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Looks like from Puerto Escondido to El Zapotalito, Oax, will have a rude awakening tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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