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EPAC Tropical Action 2012


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RECON is going to take a pass or two....

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. TROPICAL STORM BUD

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75

A. 24/2000Z

B. AFXXX 0102E BUD

C. 24/1415Z

D. 15.4N 107.7W

E. 24/1930Z TO 24/2230Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO HURRICANE

BUD NEAR 17.0N 106.7W FOR 25/1800Z.

post-32-0-51015200-1337789260_thumb.jpg

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What an amazing hurricane in-progress, NHC has become more bullish on Bud obtaining hurricane strength.

Tropical Storm Watch issued

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012

800 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

...BUD ALMOST A HURRICANE...

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.2N 107.9W

ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE

PACIFIC COAST FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. BUD IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE

CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF

MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110

KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BUD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A

HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN

BY FRIDAY.

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...BUD BECOMES A HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.5N 107.7W

ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

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The over won, 90kts in the latest advisory...and forecasted to strengthen a little bit more. It was moving to the right and a little faster than previously forecasted...wouldn't it be cool that we had a major landfalling just before turning SW?

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It's moving a tad faster than forecasted...not by much, but in these borderline cases it's important every wobble and small deviations. I think it will make landfall, mostly because at it's depth, it's feeling the trough a little more than a weaker system.

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Always a good thing when your T-3 day peak intensity forecast is better than your T-1 forecast.

Its quite impressive how the storm is reaching peak intensity right under the supressed phase of the Kelvin wave. I think the main focus here is that the shear has decreased over the storm (thanks to the easterly flow being replaced by light and variable upper level flow). This perhaps is more important than than the large scale convergence aloft, which can be easily overcome from a dynamic process such as strong latent heat release. However, this storm is about to encounter the westerly flow on the back side of the suppressed Kelvin wave phase. Since this will also be combined with an upper level environment that is favorable for sinking motion (note the distinct lack of convection outside of the inner core of Bud), the storm will be very susceptible to dry air intrusions, and we will probably see Bud fall apart as fast as it intensified over the past 24 hours.

727ns2.png

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:44Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 02E in 2012

Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 10

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 19:17:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°08'N 106°28'W (16.1333N 106.4667W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 323 miles (520 km) to the SSW (195°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,796m (9,173ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 108kts (From the SE at ~ 124.3mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall

M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)

M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 210° to 30° (SSW to NNE)

M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:12:00Z

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SW (225°) from the flight level center

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 21:18Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 02E in 2012

Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 16

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 20:59:20Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°22'N 106°20'W (16.3667N 106.3333W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 305 miles (491 km) to the SSW (194°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,808m (9,213ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 215° at 108kts (From the SW at ~ 124.3mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall

M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)

M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40° to 220° (NE to SW)

M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)

M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 20:54:00Z

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18z GFS is even faster than its previous run, and brings it ashore tomorrow morning...then it decouples while traversing montainous terrain and never comes back....looks like Jova's land will be very close to bullseye again...and it will probably be a hurricane.

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