EPAC Tropical Action 2012

[somethingfunny]

If that damn GFS had been right and the Euro had been wrong, you'd have had a sweet Mexican Pacific landfall and the Jersey Shore would still be intact. But noooo...

[GaWx]

If that damn GFS had been right and the Euro had been wrong, you'd have had a sweet Mexican Pacific landfall and the Jersey Shore would still be intact. But noooo...

The GFS was beyong horrible (see my posts earlier in this thread detailing all of those runs that hit MX with a storm if anyone is curious) while the Euro was excellent with regard to both Sandy and the phantom E PAC hurricane (it never had a 'cane hutting MX). Also, I had made a comment on 10/21 that the MX hits from the phantom storm were much less impressive on the GFS once it had Sandy turning into a superstorm and threatening the NE US. I really believe that this extra energy being put into Sandy may have sacrificed the Mexican storm based on these runs. We'll never know, of course. However, we do know there is only so much energy in the atmosphere at any one time even though the distance between them would have been thousands of miles. So, who knows?

Also, note that the Nino has been unexpectedly falling apart and may not ever return this fall/winter to make it an official Nino fwiw.

[HurricaneJosh]

The NHC's Carlotta report came out yesterday.

 

Carlotta was the only landfalling hurricane in this basin in 2012.  It came ashore way down in Oaxaca, very close to Puerto Escondido.  Carlotta is now the record-holder for the E-most known landfall in this basin.  (Reliable records go back to 1949.)

 

The landfall intensity was 976 mb/90 kt. The landfall imagery ain't bad. You can see what looks like a band of max winds passing right over Puerto Angel, which reported 58 kt (10-min) with a gust to 86 kt within an hour of when this pic was taken.  That converts to a 1-min wind of ~66 kt, so pretty good: