Srain Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Yeah, that's been the forecast for this one all along Well other than the GFDL that is... The GFS flipped back to the EPAC for the medium range regarding some future development near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the CMC maintained development as well. I did notice a hint of spin developing W of Costa Rica so the potential for a future 92E may be valid if the convection can continue and deepen over the next day or two as shear decreases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Well other than the GFDL that is... The GFDL forecasted an EPAC storm to recurve too quickly? Wow, I never would have guessed that. Next thing, you'll be telling me that the Canadian overforecasts cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 TS Aletta is born-- just a few hours before the official start of the season. It's not expected to get much stronger than a mid-range TS before dissipating in a few days on a W trek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 By the way, is someone updating the subtitle of the thread? No need to-- I can stay on top of it. If I need assistance, I will certainly request it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 It's 15 May. The season has started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Aletta has strengthened slightly-- to 40 kt. And there's a new Lemon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 You have all your bags packed for a chase already, don't you? Aletta has strengthened slightly-- to 40 kt. And there's a new Lemon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Newly classified 92E may have a chance of becoming an early season chase candidate in a couple of days. Something to watch I suppose as it drifts N/NNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 You have all your bags packed for a chase already, don't you? I'm doing preliminary things, like charging batteries, etc. Newly classified 92E may have a chance of becoming an early season chase candidate in a couple of days. Something to watch I suppose as it drifts N/NNE... It's now a Mandarin and it does have an interesting vibe-- and I've always wanted to chase something way, way down there in Guerrero or Oaxaca. The crap models that have been run suggest some potential: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 18z GFS would give Josh at least some reason to travel to Mexico. 92E seems to have some decent potential over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 18z GFS would give Josh at least some reason to travel to Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 Aletta's dwindled to a depression. 92E is now the lead story-- it has some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Aletta's dwindled to a depression. 92E is now the lead story-- it has some potential. I'm not sure whether its 92E or something else that develops, but there is a shot that something big happens next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 It might develop into something significant, but the chances for a significant landfall are tiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 It might develop into something significant, but the chances for a significant landfall are tiny. Agreed. You can even see it getting sheared out before landfall in the overamped GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I'm glass half full optimistic. Hmmmm, AmWx not letting me upload PSU EPac 4 square GFS at hour 180. Just picture it, though... This should work for about 22 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'm not sure whether its 92E or something else that develops, but there is a shot that something big happens next week. It might develop into something significant, but the chances for a significant landfall are tiny. Agreed. You can even see it getting sheared out before landfall in the overamped GFS Jova was supposed to shear before landfall. I'm glass half full optimistic. Say it again-- just to make sure we're clear on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 The Mandarin (92E) is a little better organized tonight-- up to 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 Both Aletta and the 92E have fizzled a bit in the last day. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I think the 00z ECMWF will probably get Josh's attention... 92E is winning the ITCZ battle against the other disturbance to its east, and as the upper level easterlies lead up over the system (partially due to its renewed westerly movement) we should start to see robust development. Could be our first major system of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Wow-- that is kind of cool. I noticed it's been re-Mandarined. If it develops, what's the chance of it affecting land, do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Wow-- that is kind of cool. I noticed it's been re-Mandarined. If it develops, what's the chance of it affecting land, do you think? Pretty good if the storm gets as strong as the ECMWF is suggesting. The subtropical ridge overhead is not very strong thanks to a couple of upper level impulses swinging across North America. Once this develops into a substantial vertical cyclone, it will likely create a large enough weakness for the system to drift northward. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this solution, although the GFS is having some sort of weird interaction with an area of vorticity to the east. I don't buy that solution, as 92E looks much more discrete than the GFS currently depicts it as. It may still take another 24-48 hours for the system to spin up, but once it does, rapid intensification is not out of the question under a favorable regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Pretty good if the storm gets as strong as the ECMWF is suggesting. The subtropical ridge overhead is not very strong thanks to a couple of upper level impulses swinging across North America. Once this develops into a substantial vertical cyclone, it will likely create a large enough weakness for the system to drift northward. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this solution, although the GFS is having some sort of weird interaction with an area of vorticity to the east. I don't buy that solution, as 92E looks much more discrete than the GFS currently depicts it as. It may still take another 24-48 hours for the system to spin up, but once it does, rapid intensification is not out of the question under a favorable regime. So weird to be entertaining a possible chase setup in May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 That thing looks to be sub 950 mb on the Euro, although obviously intensity forecasts are rather asinine at this point, this looks rather "tingle-worthy", I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 That thing looks to be sub 950 mb on the Euro, although obviously intensity forecasts are rather asinine at this point, this looks rather "tingle-worthy", I'd say. Yeah, definitely getting tingles about it. But how weird that it's May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 The Euro was very impressive today and 92E has organized quickly during the past 6-12 hours after simmering for days. We have a cherry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Yep, we have a cherry! And it looks deserving, in my opinion. Adam says it could get kinda sexy later in the week. He told me via text-- after a little prodding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Methinks that this is worthy of an upgrade by 11pm. You must be tingling all over Josh after seeing the 12z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 00ABPZ20 KNHC 202337 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 And we have a depression, current forecast brings it inland as a 80kt hurricane in roughly 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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