HurricaneJosh Posted October 15, 2012 Author Share Posted October 15, 2012 Yeah, you might end up being right, somethingfunny. Latest forecast has it passing very close to the coast as a Cat 1/2 'cane: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 15, 2012 Author Share Posted October 15, 2012 I chased Hurricane Jimena (2009) on the Baja Peninsula and rode out a direct hit from the 90-kt cyclone in Puerto San Carlos-- which is exactly where Paul is headed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Weakening now, but the forecast now has Paul making landfall instead of just skirting the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Weakening now, but the forecast now has Paul making landfall instead of just skirting the coast. Yeah, wow-- interesting. The Discussion suggests it'll come ashore with winds of 65 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Paul is a tiny little hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Paul is a tiny little hurricane. Yeah, wow-- didn't realize until I saw this pic with the Baja Peninsula to give it some scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 The storm is accelerating, and the latest forecast has the center passing very close to Puerto San Carlos in 12 hr with winds of 85 kt. Could be pretty decent there if it moves a tad E of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 ALTHOUGH THE EYE OF PAUL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN RECENTSATELLITE IMAGES...CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 95 KT. PAUL IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/17...STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF TO THE WEST OF PAUL. AFTER THAT...A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TAKES THE CENTER OF PAUL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA PENNISULA LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS. MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS TILTED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TILTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR PICKS UP. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR...SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN SOME ON ITS APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...PAUL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER BAJA. AFTER INTERACTING WITH LAND...ABRUPT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND PAUL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IT LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.9N 112.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 23.8N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 25.9N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 27.3N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED The portion I underlined' date=' I feel is rather silly. "Weaken [u']some[/u]." Paul's maintained its' strength fairly well, but once these EPAC storms start weakening, they unravel fast, usually well ahead of the NHC's decay forecast. The SSTs are high enough for an anomalously strong Baja hit, but the rest of the conditions are going to demolish the storm. My opinion is a weak TS at landfall, though maybe not operationally. I know I was suggesting earlier that it could be a big hit for Mexico, but that largely depended on how strong Paul managed to become during the RI phase and how long it maintained its' peak. Since it's already winding down to a Cat2, I don't see a real bright future here. Edit: 12 hours??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 The portion I underlined, I feel is rather silly. Paul's maintained its' strength fairly well, but once these EPAC storms start weakening, they unravel fast. The SSTs are high enough for an anomalously strong Baja hit, but the rest of the conditions are going to demolish the storm. My opinion is a weak TS at landfall, though maybe not operationally. Really? If it nudges a tad E, it's going to make landfall within ~12 hr, and at that point it will still be a decent 'cane. If it moves more due-N and landfalls further up the coast-- as per the forecast track-- then it will be much weaker. But because the angle of approach is so acute, small heading shifts will heavily influence the time/place of landfall, and since they just don't know exactly when/where it will come ashore, their wording makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Edit: 12 hours??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Really? If it nudges a tad E, it's going to make landfall within ~12 hr, and at that point it will still be a decent 'cane. If it moves more due-N and landfalls further up the coast-- as per the forecast track-- then it will be much weaker. But because the angle of approach is so acute, small heading shifts will heavily influence the time/place of landfall, and since they just don't know exactly when/where it will come ashore, their wording makes sense to me. Yeah, I didn't realize it would be so quick to come ashore with an east wobble. This could definitely maintain strength for another 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Sometimes I post things about how strange some of the NHC wording is, without actually looking at the current situation, and then I wish I hadn't said it at all. This thing isn't gonna weasel its' way past that cape; it's actually looking stronger in the last few frames as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 I think of the Baja Peninsula as Pacific Mexico's "Outer Banks": it gets lots of action because it sticks out-- hurricanes here are common-- but they're almost always weakening Cat 1s and 2s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Sometimes I post things about how strange some of the NHC wording is, without actually looking at the current situation, and then I wish I hadn't said it at all. It's OK. This thing isn't gonna weasel its' way past that cape: Agreed-- looks like it's gonna hit. The town at that cape is a fishing village called Puerto San Carlos, and it's where I rode out Hurricane Jimena (2009), which also passed directly over it with an intensity of 90 kt. (Video posted above.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 The eye is filling in as the circulation is tilted - but the convection is deepening all around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It will come ashore as a cat 2 (90 or 95kts)...being to the right and faster than forecasted really helped it to make a stronger landfall than I (and most) expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It will come ashore as a cat 2 (90 or 95kts)...being to the right and faster than forecasted really helped it to make a stronger landfall than I (and most) expected. Really? It looks T4.5 at best to me right now. Plus, it's weakening as it comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Really? It looks T4.5 at best to me right now. Plus, it's weakening as it comes ashore. It's about 3 2 hours from landfall, how much can it weaken in that time?, convection still looks strong...I don't think it goes below cat 2. Plus, it's hauling ass, that should help with winds in the SE quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It's about 3 2 hours from landfall, how much can it weaken in that time?, convection still looks strong...I don't think it goes below cat 2. I'm saying I wouldn't be shocked if NHC goes 75-80 kts at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I'm saying I wouldn't be shocked if NHC goes 75-80 kts at 11am. Could be, but sat presentation hasn't degraded that much, and going from 95kts to 80 kts in 3 hours is not NHC's style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Could be, but sat presentation hasn't degraded that much, and going from 95kts to 80 kts in 3 hours is not NHC's style. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Shots from near landfall. Looks like it's coming ashore very near Puerto San Carlos: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It's probably landfalling as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Shots from near landfall. Looks like it's coming ashore very near Puerto San Carlos: Will be interesting to see how people compares it vs Jimena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Shots that reveal some of the structure. Core is still there but definite hints of S shear. Too bad the Los Cabos radar is down. Grrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 I'm saying I wouldn't be shocked if NHC goes 75-80 kts at 11am. Bingo. The 11 am advisory has it down to 80 kt and still offshore. It's ~30 mi S of Puerto San Carlos and moving due N now, so I imagine they'll get a direct hit. Fun to track, but I'm cool with my decision not to chase this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Bingo. The 11 am advisory has it down to 80 kt and still offshore. It's ~30 mi S of Puerto San Carlos and moving due N now, so I imagine they'll get a direct hit. Fun to track, but I'm cool with my decision not to chase this one. Well, I meant 11am EDT, but yeah. The satellite presentation was deteriorating as it was gaining latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Well, I meant 11am EDT, but yeah. The satellite presentation was deteriorating as it was gaining latitude. So Eastiecentric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Totally fallin' apart now. Center isn't even onshore and it's mega-exposed. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Totally fallin' apart now. Center isn't even onshore and it's mega-exposed. Sad. I bet there were healthy winds onshore under the deeper convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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