EPAC Tropical Action 2012

[aslkahuna]

My bad shouldhave gone back further in the ATL-though then again I usually don't follow the ATL that much my interest is the Pacific, IO and Southern Hemisphere.

Steve

[wxmx]

Low level westerly wind anomalies will take hold of the basin in a few days, and could stay that way for a couple of weeks. These kind of anomalies are associated with enhanced activity in the EPac. There's one problem, because, even though there appears to be troughiness in the Californias, a strong GoM ridge is forecasted to develop, and this kind of pattern usually favors parallel to the coast tracks and recurves around Baja...that could be the case for our next TC in 5-10 days. If the GoM ridge could weaken after that, conditions still appear favorable for one or two more TCs close to MX.

[Ed Lizard]

Low level westerly wind anomalies will take hold of the basin in a few days, and could stay that way for a couple of weeks. These kind of anomalies are associated with enhanced activity in the EPac. There's one problem, because, even though there appears to be troughiness in the Californias, a strong GoM ridge is forecasted to develop, and this kind of pattern usually favors parallel to the coast tracks and recurves around Baja...that could be the case for our next TC in 5-10 days. If the GoM ridge could weaken after that, conditions still appear favorable for one or two more TCs close to MX.

Mid-month happy time for i-Cyclone per GFS ensembles... although looping the GEFS does suggests most would landfall North of the sweet spot.

[HurricaneJosh]

Well, hopefully you guys are right and something cool develops mid-month.

In the meantime, Olivia has formed-- and despite the rich history of awesome Olivias in MX (1967, 1975) and Oz (1996), this Olivia won't add to the tradition; it will be a lame TS fish.

Maybe Paul will bring something better.

[HurricaneJosh]

The Euro is showing a large, strong hurricane that appears to be starting to recurve in the 8-10-day range-- however, it's way offshore and a bit too far N and W (near ~19N 120W by Day 10). But, hey, it's something to watch.

[wxmx]

The Euro is showing a large, strong hurricane that appears to be starting to recurve in the 8-10-day range-- however, it's way offshore and a bit too far N and W (near ~19N 120W by Day 10). But, hey, it's something to watch.

GoM ridge will be just too strong for any interesting recurve...we'll have to wait for the next one after this.

[HurricaneJosh]

GoM ridge will be just too strong for any interesting recurve...we'll have to wait for the next one after this.

Maybe it'll weaken?

[wxmx]

Maybe it'll weaken?

The ridge? I doubt it will weaken enough to make it recurve on time. I'll put it like this, I bet not even the GFDL will have a recurve to mainland below 23N in any of it's runs.

[HurricaneJosh]

[HurricaneJosh]

The cyclone advertised in the 8-10-day range is looking a lot weaker in the latest (12Z) Euro. And it's still too far N and W.

[HurricaneJosh]

Well, the Euro is getting a tad more interesting. I mean, it's not exactly interesting, but it's trending toward interesting.

The latest (00Z) shows a decent cyclone (perhaps a weak hurricane) forming offshore around Day 6 and then recurving toward the S end of the Baja Peninsula. The cyclone weakens as it approaches, and it actually stalls offshore and dies by Day 10-- but the track is further S than previous runs-- far-enough S to be interesting.

I'm curious to see how this feature evolves. We're still talking a week away, but I like that the Euro is at least advertising a cyclone, and that it seems to have some recurve potential.

[phil882]

Just a general note for the next several weeks, but HS3 is tasking missions in the East Pacific now. Thus, with this upcoming system, we may have semi-operational observations on the system.

[HurricaneJosh]

Vaguely interesting vibe from this-- kind of suggesting a hurricane kind of possibly recurving toward the Baja Peninsula..; (Yeah, yeah-- I know it's the BAMS.)

[HurricaneJosh]

The latest (00Z) Euro is still kind of blah, showing what looks like a weak hurricane moving offshore of-- and parallel to-- the Baja Peninsula as it fizzles. So, no improvement to the scenario since yesterday.

[HurricaneJosh]

Since things are so boring right now...

Today is the one-year anniversary of one of my favorite chases ever, Hurricane JOVA on Mexico's Pacific coast. The NHC only put it at 85 kt, but I tell ya, it was way worse than a couple of majors I've been in. Not sure if we were in a localized event like an eyewall microburst or something, but it was a surprisingly violent, scary hurricane. And I wasn't the only one who felt that way. Jim Edds was chasing with me, and he described it as the worst he'd seen since Cat-4 Charley's eyewall in Punta Gorda, FL-- and residents I talked with the next afternoon described their fear as the cyclone passed through.

I shot this video from the protection of a carport at the front entrance to a convenience store. The fun starts around 2:29, steadily building to a ferocious climax at 4:26.

[Ground Scouring]

Since things are so boring right now...

Today is the one-year anniversary of one of my favorite chases ever, Hurricane JOVA on Mexico's Pacific coast. The NHC only put it at 85 kt, but I tell ya, it was way worse than a couple of majors I've been in. Not sure if we were in a localized event like an eyewall microburst or something, but it was a surprisingly violent, scary hurricane. And I wasn't the only one who felt that way. Jim Edds was chasing with me, and he described it as the worst he'd seen since Cat-4 Charley's eyewall in Punta Gorda, FL-- and residents I talked with the next afternoon described their fear as the cyclone passed through.

I shot this video from the protection of a carport at the front entrance to a convenience store. The fun starts around 2:29, steadily building to a ferocious climax at 4:26.

Did you ever consider gathering meteorological data corroborated by your chase to suggest a stonger landfall intensity to the NHC? Satellite imagery from TAFB and other agencies around the time of landfall showed a very small, well-defined inner core in addition to a large outer convective band. I believe some agencies estimated winds higher than 85 kt based upon satellite-derived estimates. I think that, if the conditions you experienced were even somewhat representative of the actual intensity, it would call into question just how many small systems have been, and still are, underestimated--and even, in light of many big major hurricanes producing lackluster surface observations even near the core, how many large systems may even today be overestimated. These factors might affect the reliability of hurricane reanalysis before the satellite era if observations are limited and/or unused (and many observations used in the initial reanalysis may overlook other sources available only in museums or local archives, which is why the reanalysis is constantly updated due to new data affecting the intensity evaluations).

[GaWx]

Following are all Cat-3+ landfalls on Mexico's Pacific coast since 1949-- showing year, name, date, state (where the center crossed the coast), and intensity. Note that only Kiko 1989 and Lane 2006 were not in October. Also notice that most of the really intense ones hit quite late in the month:

1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt***)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)

(I'm currently doing some intensive research Re: landfalls in this basin, and-- as on the Atlantic side-- some of the best-track data are weird and contradictory. Any data that seem odd are flagged with asterisks (***). I'll be writing to the NHC about these items once I finish my research.)

I'm bumping this to reemphasize that a very respectable four of the eight Oct. major hits on MX's Pacific coast were during an oncoming El Nino and a whopping five of these eight were late in the month (dates: 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, and 10/27). So, we've still not made it to the climo "primetime" of Oct. El Nino hit dates were as follows: 10/1, 10/8, 10/22, and 10/25. Three of these four Oct. El Nino hits were cat. 4's. The 10/22 and 10/25 El Nino hits were both cat. 4's. So, even though the odds have always been pretty low and are falling further as get later, I still wouldn't give up yet based on these late Oct. major El Nino hits. So, I'd call the chance low but not so miniscule as to not still have some hope. Although I still expect a weak El Nino peak this fall/winter, there is admittedly some doubt now that with the past several weeks of cooling. All that is needed for the El Nino climo to start being helpful here is to get a weak one.

[HurricaneJosh]

Did you ever consider gathering meteorological data corroborated by your chase to suggest a stonger landfall intensity to the NHC? Satellite imagery from TAFB and other agencies around the time of landfall showed a very small, well-defined inner core in addition to a large outer convective band. I believe some agencies estimated winds higher than 85 kt based upon satellite-derived estimates. I think that, if the conditions you experienced were even somewhat representative of the actual intensity, it would call into question just how many small systems have been, and still are, underestimated--and even, in light of many big major hurricanes producing lackluster surface observations even near the core, how many large systems may even today be overestimated. These factors might affect the reliability of hurricane reanalysis before the satellite era if observations are limited and/or unused (and many observations used in the initial reanalysis may overlook other sources available only in museums or local archives, which is why the reanalysis is constantly updated due to new data affecting the intensity evaluations).

Great question, snowflake.

During Jova, I collected a peripheral pressure reading of 985 mb as the center passed ~8 n mi to the W. Plugging my air pressure, my distance from the center, the ambient pressure, and the estimated RMW into the same formulas they use in reanalysis, I calculated a landfall intensity of 95 or 100 kt. I put my data and calculations into a paper (see attached) and submitted it to the NHC, and I even followed up with correspondence and in-person discussion. (I met Jack Beven at a chasers' gathering in Florida and really went there about it.)

They didn't buy my arguments and kept it at the operational 85 kt. Their reasoning was basically that the satellite-derived estimates take precedence over these equations, and the satellite-derived estimates suggested 85 kt.

They are the experts and I respect their verdict. That having been said...

If you look at the satellite evolution leading up to landfall, the cyclone was obviously strengthening again as it approached the coast. It's as plain as day from both IR and MW imagery-- and yet the official Tropical Cyclone Report shows slow filling up to landfall. I really just don't get that, but I decided to finally leave it alone-- I felt like I was going to become annoying if I pressed my case any further. (And Adam yelled at me about it. )

But I still wonder what the heck was happening as it came ashore. As you can see from my video, it was pretty violent. It's a crying shame that the Mexican radar was down, as I think it might have revealed some very interesting small-scale details-- like a short-term but very tight, very intense eyewall as it crossed the coast.

iCyclone Intensity Analysis - JOVA 2011.pdf

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm bumping this to reemphasize that a very respectable four of the eight Oct. major hits on MX's Pacific coast were during an oncoming El Nino and a whopping five of these eight were late in the month (dates: 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, and 10/27). So, we've still not made it to the climo "primetime" of Oct. El Nino hit dates were as follows: 10/1, 10/8, 10/22, and 10/25. Three of these four Oct. El Nino hits were cat. 4's. The 10/22 and 10/25 El Nino hits were both cat. 4's. So, even though the odds have always been pretty low and are falling further as get later, I still wouldn't give up yet based on these late Oct. major El Nino hits. So, I'd call the chance low but not so miniscule as to not still have some hope. Although I still expect a weak El Nino peak this fall/winter, there is admittedly some doubt now that with the past several weeks of cooling. All that is needed for the El Nino climo to start being helpful here is to get a weak one.

Thanks, Larry-- and totally agreed with your assessment. It's really interesting that so many of the hawttest EPAC landfalls were so late in the month. We're still eight days out from "late month", so I keep hopeful that the Euro is gonna start showin' somethin' sexy in the long-range soon.

I have to say, after I gave up on the NATL, I was really hoping for that d*mn El Nino to at least come through in the EPAC. Grrrrrrr.

Anyhoo, thanks for these words of encouragement.

[Superstorm93]

Thats one impressive El Nino

[GaWx]

Thats one impressive El Nino

Yes, it sure has been struggling badly. Keep in minf that Nino 3.4 covers 120W-170W. Looking closely at your map, there are warm anom.'s from ~142W to 170W. The question is whether they can hold off the cool anom.'s just to their east. If they can and the warmth is later able to expand eastward, Nino 3.4 could very well get to +0.5+. For this climo to be favorable for the E Pac., there really only needs to be a weak Nino ala 1976.

[HurricaneJosh]

TS Paul has formed and should become a Cat-1 hurricane. It'll move N and threaten the Baja Peninsula-- however, it should weaken below hurricane force before reaching land:

[somethingfunny]

This one may surprise, Josh. The NHC even mentioned the possibility of a rapid intensification, and with the SST anomalies along the Baja coast it might maintain better than most systems would on this track.

[GaWx]

Josh/others,

Looking past Paul, the last four GFS runs have developed another TC near 12N, 90W ~10/22. They seem to keep it offshore, but maybe this is the one to watch for the last decent shot at a sig. MX hit even though odds are still low.

Climo gives some support for it. Any opinions?

[HurricaneJosh]

Josh/others,

Looking past Paul, the last four GFS runs have developed another TC near 12N, 90W ~10/22. They seem to keep it offshore, but maybe this is the one to watch for the last decent shot at a sig. MX hit even though odds are still low.

Climo gives some support for it. Any opinions?

Well, 12N 90W is a great starting point, I'll say that: way S and way E. I like that!

[HurricaneJosh]

Paul is now an 80-kt hurricane heading in the general direction of the Baja Peninsula. It should strengthen even more in the long-term, but then it should weaken-- and the forecast track has it swerving left to avoid the coast. That having been said, the forecast has it passing fairly close to Puerto San Carlos as a 'cane, and some of the models (like the Euro) bring it much closer:

[GaWx]

Paul is now an 80-kt hurricane heading in the general direction of the Baja Peninsula. It should strengthen even more in the long-term, but then it should weaken-- and the forecast track has it swerving left to avoid the coast. That having been said, the forecast has it passing fairly close to Puerto San Carlos as a 'cane, and some of the models (like the Euro) bring it much closer:

Keep in mind fwiw, the SST's between Paul and the Baja Pen. are solidly above normal.

[Snow_Miser]

Paul is now a major hurricane. Hurricane warnings in effect for Baja California.

[somethingfunny]

This one may surprise, Josh. The NHC even mentioned the possibility of a rapid intensification, and with the SST anomalies along the Baja coast it might maintain better than most systems would on this track.

...PAUL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...

ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON

THIS SCENARIO...IT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHIFTING EASTWARD.

^ It seems to be moving NNE.

[HurricaneJosh]

Interesting...

The models do basically suggest a near landfall-- or very close to it-- near Puerto San Carlos: