am19psu Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Boring. Scientifically, it will be interesting to see if the models are correct re: Ernesto reforming in the EPAC. But overall, boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Boring. Scientifically, it will be interesting to see if the models are correct re: Ernesto reforming in the EPAC. But overall, boring. GFS brings the former Ernesto towards Baja, but, sadly, weakens it on final approach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Son of Ernesto may come close enough to Baja as it weakens to require TS warnings in a few days for Los Cabos if Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 FWIW: Ernesto remnants have fully crossed over to the EPAC and 94E has been classified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Ernesto, my have you grown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012 THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE IS VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...AND CONSEQUENTLY ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1700Z 17.5N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.7N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.7N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 18.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Hect-nersto.... BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HECTOR ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012 ...THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 108.1W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. HECTOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2012 Author Share Posted September 1, 2012 I've been naughty-- totally neglected this thread and my secret pet basin. While we all ignored the EPAC, Hurriane Ileana formed. As of now, it's weakened to a TS as it fishes. We also have a Cherry (98E) and a Mandarin (99E)-- but the models basically keep both offshore, and the Euro doesn't do much with either. In the next couple of weeks, the climatological risk of a major landfall on this side greatly increases, peaking in October-- and I'm thinking the El Nino might add a little extra help this year. I'm thinking there's a good chance that my final chase of the year might be an October recurver. But I'm getting ahead of myself-- it's only 01 Sep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 TS John has formed near Socorro Island-- from that Cherry. The forecast is completely uninteresting, keeping it offshore and weak. Trivia: In 2006, Hurricane John hit Los Cabos as a strengthening, 95-kt system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Poof! John's degenerated to remnant low. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 There are hints of the EPAC awakening and a new Lemon SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, although it looks fishy. Perhaps it is a beginning of things to come in the next month or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 There are hints of the EPAC awakening and a new Lemon SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, although it looks fishy. Perhaps it is a beginning of things to come in the next month or so... Hope you're right. It's now a big Mandarin-- a.k.a. Invest 90E. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Looks like the 12Z GFS develops two areas of low pressure - one out of invest 90E and another out of a separate area of convection slightly further SW. The two regions share vorticity, so the actual genesis is quite complicated and will probably be subject to large run-to-run differences. GFS then takes the northern system into Baja California but has it very weak, while the western system is stronger but no threat to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Looks like the 12Z GFS develops two areas of low pressure - one out of invest 90E and another out of a separate area of convection slightly further SW. The two regions share vorticity, so the actual genesis is quite complicated and will probably be subject to large run-to-run differences. GFS then takes the northern system into Baja California but has it very weak, while the western system is stronger but no threat to land. Ugh. In other words, they both suck. Grrrr. "Complicated genesis" is just never a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 The cherry (90E) is about to pop-- should be a cyclone soon. Most of the models fish it, although the GFDL brings it toward Los Cabos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 It appears a TD is forming about 200 miles SSW of Manzanillo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 And TD 11E forms. Nice-looking-- but forecast to fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Looks like a combination of the two solutions from the GFS 2 days ago will verify. Instead of a weak storm that threatens land and a strong storm that fishes, we'll instead just get a weak fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 It's now TS Kristy. Still fish food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 As TS Kristy parallels the Baja Peninsula way offshore, there are a couple of other items-- a Lemon and a Mandarin-- way offshore. Nothing interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 TS Kristy is weakening off the Baja Peninsula-- should degenerate into a depression today-- while TS Lane has formed much further offshore. Boring crap. By the way... The last storm named Lane was a 110-kt, tight-core sexycane that came ashore in Sinaloa exactly six years ago today. <sigh> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 This year's Lane was a hurricane recently-- now it's not. It's heading out to sea anywhere. Blah. Next? Wouldn't mind chasing a Miriam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 This year's Lane was a hurricane recently-- now it's not. It's heading out to sea anywhere. Blah. Next? Wouldn't mind chasing a Miriam. Miriam looks like a fish next week. Sorry. Olivia or Paul will be the hotness in the 2nd week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 This year's Lane was a hurricane recently-- now it's not. It's heading out to sea anywhere. Blah. Next? Wouldn't mind chasing a Miriam. You're best off waiting for a Kenna redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 You're best off waiting for a Kenna redux. For sure. And it's after mid-September that I start looking for that. What I liked about Kenna-- besides its severity-- was that it accelerated in a nice straight line toward the coast. None of this wobble baloney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Miriam looks like a fish next week. Sorry. Olivia or Paul will be the hotness in the 2nd week of October. Ah, OK. Cool. Why do you say they'll be hawt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Ah, OK. Cool. Why do you say they'll be hawt? Figure about 2-3 weeks until the MJO comes back around, then just guessing on the October climo track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Olivia has some history. In 1982, Olivia was a TD until just before landfall in Santa Barbarbra and heavy rains ruined the raisin crop and delayed the tomato harvest leading to major losses. Flooding rains hit UT. In 2000, the remnants of Olivia brought squalls and heavy rains to SE AZ part of a pattern that led to significant flooding on the San Pedro River and the wettest October in many years in Sierra Vista. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Figure about 2-3 weeks until the MJO comes back around, then just guessing on the October climo track Cool. I'm holdin' you to this. FYI. Olivia has some history. In 1982, Olivia was a TD until just before landfall in Santa Barbarbra and heavy rains ruined the raisin crop and delayed the tomato harvest leading to major losses. Flooding rains hit UT. In 2000, the remnants of Olivia brought squalls and heavy rains to SE AZ part of a pattern that led to significant flooding on the San Pedro River and the wettest October in many years in Sierra Vista. Steve Interesting. And on two occasions, major (Cat-3) hurricanes named Olivia have hit MX-- the Baja Peninsula in 1967 and Sinaloa in 1975. The name seems to be blessed. Perhaps the blessings will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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