Superstorm93 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Correct me if Im wrong, but isn't 98E the same wave we were tracking in the CATL a while ago? Been on vacation for a while, but looking at the Hovmoller it seems to line up nicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 I think Emilia is in the process of re-intensifying a bit today. Pretty good microwave presentation and the lack of banding features does indicate some potential for the system to become Annular under low shear and somewhat low SSTs over the next 24 hours. It does need to clear out that eye quite a bit more first though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Same as yesterday. Northwestward but stays far away from MX. I think Emilia is in the process of re-intensifying a bit today. Pretty good microwave presentation and the lack of banding features does indicate some potential for the system to become Annular under low shear and somewhat low SSTs over the next 24 hours. It does need to clear out that eye quite a bit more first though. Looks pretty nice, actually. I'd be excited to get in a cyclone core with a MW presentation like that this year. It's not perfect, but it's totally decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Looks like Phil was right! Semi-annular looking right now (still has potential to go annular tonight), but is definitely unaffected by cooler SSTs. ADT is actually the highest it's been so far, even stronger than Mon night. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 11 JUL 2012 Time : 200000 UTC Lat : 14:47:34 N Lon : 118:05:09 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.4 / 940.6mb/124.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.3 6.1 6.1 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km Center Temp : -8.9C Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 80km - Environmental MSLP : 1010mb Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.1 degrees **************************************************** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Spectacular sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 Col pic, Turtle-- thanks for posting it! Emilia is weakening this morning, while TD 6E has formed (from last night's cherry) and is forecast to strengthen into a 'cane. A trough will dig down and steer it more N eventually-- but it will weaken as it starts to recurve. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Col pic, Turtle-- thanks for posting it! Emilia is weakening this morning, while TD 6E has formed (from last night's cherry) and is forecast to strengthen into a 'cane. A trough will dig down and steer it more N eventually-- but it will weaken as it starts to recurve. Blah. Emilia is being darn persistant and is back up to a Cat 3 for the third time in its life. TD 6E has become Fabio! If it becomes a hurricane, it will be the 5th storm in a row in the EPac to do so. Needless to say, the EPac is on fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 Emilia is being darn persistant and is back up to a Cat 3 for the third time in its life. TD 6E has become Fabio! If it becomes a hurricane, it will be the 5th storm in a row in the EPac to do so. Needless to say, the EPac is on fire! Yep. More and more, I'm thinking this season's salvation is going to be October in the EPAC. Just have that feeling. It's the vibe I'm getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Talk about quality over quantity the last 2 years. Since the start of hurricane season 2011: EPAC: 17/15/9 (assuming Fabio becomes a hurricane) ATL: 23/8/4 So a whopping 88% of TSs in the EPAC have become hurricanes and 53% have become majors, while in the Atlantic only 35% of TSs have become hurricanes and only 17% have become majors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 15, 2012 Author Share Posted July 15, 2012 As per satellite imagery, Fabio has strengthened considerably in the last few hours, and a special advisory has been issued to raise the intensity to 972 mb/90 kt. Meanwhile, TS Emilia continues to slowly unwind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 Fabio's dying-- 55 kt and rapidly unraveling. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Just curious, with the SSTs below normal around Hawai'i, does anybody have an anomaly chart handy for July 1992, the Iniki El Nino year? 1997 if its readily available. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Just curious, with the SSTs below normal around Hawai'i, does anybody have an anomaly chart handy for July 1992, the Iniki El Nino year? 1997 if its readily available. TIA http://policlimate.com/weather/SST/sst_npac.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Just curious, with the SSTs below normal around Hawai'i, does anybody have an anomaly chart handy for July 1992, the Iniki El Nino year? 1997 if its readily available. TIA I'll help you out again Ed! You can tell that the warm anomalies extending into Hawaii in 1992 really made the difference. Pacific SSTs in 1997 were overall warmer, but not in the favored storm track. 1992: 1997: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 http://policlimate.c...T/sst_npac.html Beat me, and with a much simpler answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Beat me, and with a much simpler answer. That is a handy and conventient resource. Thanks Jorge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 http://policlimate.c...T/sst_npac.html GFS forecast has a potential Gilma about to plow into a buzzsaw of shear anyway, but the cool anomaly of SSTs around Hawai'i saddens me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_ep902012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201207212040 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 This thing's now a cherry-- will be another fish, though. It's just that part of the EPAC season: lots of activity, lots of fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 East Pac cherry, after losing a bit of organization based on satellite, seems to be gaining it back. Just looking at the loops, and last few frames suggests consolidation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 That cherry-- which looked like a sure bet a couple of days ago-- has fizzled to a lemon. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 For the past couple of runs, the Euro has been rather insistent on developing a system just off Costa Rica and generally moving WNW to NW hugging the Mexican Coast. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 Oh, cool. I hadn't been watching. Thanks for alerting us. An EPAC chase subject would be awesome right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2012 Author Share Posted July 28, 2012 The Euro's still showing a small, strong cyclone just offshore near Acapulco around Day 10. The persistence of the feature makes it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 Today's runs show it further offshore and weaker. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 The over night Euro remains offshore of the Mexican Riviera with the next developing disturbance. The GFS suggests the same, but that model also suggests 2 additional storms developing in the longer range. It getting to be that time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 The Euro has lost that cyclone it had been modeling for a couple of days. Poof! Gone. In other news, there's a 0% lemon. Whatevz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ernesto remnants develop a surface reflection Saturday, and possibly menace Los Cabos in 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Gilma, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 Gilma, btw. Thanks! I've been neglecting this thread pretty badly the last few days. Gilma is weakening as it moves NW way off Baja California. The outlook for 93E is kind of blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.