Srain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Yet another Mandarin up for 97E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Microcane in the making? It sure looks small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 It's hard to tell given the lack of soundings over the Pacific, but Daniel certainly has the look of a cyclone that is experiencing mid-level shear. Outflow is still restricted to the north and microwave imagery shows the vortex is still tilted slightly to the southwest, despite the 850-200mb shear being in the single digits. Looks like the vortex tilt is mainly gone, with a nice low-level eye getting organized. I still think a brief period of RI is still possible in the next 12-18 hours before it moves over cooler SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Looks like the vortex tilt is mainly gone, with a nice low-level eye getting organized. I still think a brief period of RI is still possible in the next 12-18 hours before it moves over cooler SSTs I agree, RI is a good possibility today. Probably not to Cat 3 but could see Cat 2 for sure by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 The new cherry is going to be a cyclone, too-- and another fish as well. We're in classic EPAC mid-season mode. Everything's going to move W and fish for the next couple of months-- then around mid-September or October, we'll start to see possible threats to Mexico again as the Pacific troughs start to dig down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Semi-OT. I hate the California Current. How much more active these threads could be if we could be watching long trackers headed for Hilo or Honolulu... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Future Emilia is likely already a TD. Nice banding features to the S and N of the CoC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_ep972012_ep052012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201207071856 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 TD 5-E has formed and it looks like it could be another substancial tropical cyclone as it moves to the WNW nowhere near land. Daniel on the other hand is rapidly intensifying at the moment. Its got another 6-12 hours over sufficient SSTs and its possible Daniel might make a run at major hurricane intensity before it reaches its peak. If Daniel can move further south than expected in the next 24 hours, it might be able to bisect the 25-26 degree isotherm, and could be a potential candidate for becoming an Annular hurricane given the very favorable upper level pattern and low sea surface temperatures. Already its starting to shed its outer feeder band as it traverses cooler SSTs and the eye is currently clearing out. There is a decent chance that Daniel might last significantly longer than the current NHC forecast. Ironically... Daniel (2012) may be following in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Both Daniel 2006 and Daniel 2000 were Annular Hurricanes that crossed over into the Central Pacific Daniel (2000) Daniel (2006) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 8, 2012 Author Share Posted July 8, 2012 Fish train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 TD 5-E has formed and it looks like it could be another substancial tropical cyclone as it moves to the WNW nowhere near land. Daniel on the other hand is rapidly intensifying at the moment. Its got another 6-12 hours over sufficient SSTs and its possible Daniel might make a run at major hurricane intensity before it reaches its peak. If Daniel can move further south than expected in the next 24 hours, it might be able to bisect the 25-26 degree isotherm, and could be a potential candidate for becoming an Annular hurricane given the very favorable upper level pattern and low sea surface temperatures. Already its starting to shed its outer feeder band as it traverses cooler SSTs and the eye is currently clearing out. There is a decent chance that Daniel might last significantly longer than the current NHC forecast. Ironically... Daniel (2012) may be following in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Both Daniel 2006 and Daniel 2000 were Annular Hurricanes that crossed over into the Central Pacific Daniel (2000) Daniel (2006) Daniels have been puurrrtttyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Daniel after becoming a major hurricane briefly this morning is still hanging on to Cat 2 intensity and is proving to more resilient to weakling despite being completely over sub 26 degree waters... well see how long it can keep that up. Emilia looks like its about to start an RI episode of its own. The outflow is rapidly expanding to the west after previously being slightly limited by the extensive outflow of Daniel, and is fully embedded in SSTs above 29C. I'm thinking we are going to see explosive intensification over the next 24 hours as the inner core is getting established. In my opinion, I think 105 knots is probably on the low side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Daniel finally succuming to dry air and cooler SSTs. It does have amazingly symetric outflow though. Emila also has good 360 outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Even though we haven't had a MW image in 12 hours, I'd guess Emilia has started RI based on the IR presentation improving by the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Semi-OT. I hate the California Current. How much more active these threads could be if we could be watching long trackers headed for Hilo or Honolulu... It just goes to show what a rarity Iniki was back in September of 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 It just goes to show what a rarity Iniki was back in September of 1992. Warm PDO FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Could we please get some Congressional funding for some freaking polar orbiters. It's ridiculous we're missing microwave coverage of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Warm PDO FTW Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Could we please get some Congressional funding for some freaking polar orbiters. It's ridiculous we're missing microwave coverage of this event. It could be worse, the TMI is almost 15 years old... At least there will be a new AMSR that is currently in orbit and being calibrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Finally, some microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Thats one heck of a tower in that SE quad. No wonder this is blowing up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 9, 2012 Author Share Posted July 9, 2012 Emilia is now up to 969 mb/95 kt-- almost a major. Nice-lookin' fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 10, 2012 Author Share Posted July 10, 2012 And now Emilia is a major: 959 mb/105 kt. Daniel is still hanging on at 992 mb/65 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 At 5am, Emilia was up to 120 kts, probably near peak intensity, and Daniel is down to 60 kts. We also have a mandarin south of Acapulco. The mandarin, Invest 98E, might develop, but it doesn't appear to be as likely to develop into a major the way Daniel and Emilia did. The northwestward track will take it over cooler water sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Emilia still looks good, but watching loops, the eye has cooled a little while the cloud tops around the eye have warmed a bit as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Gotta love the parade of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific today. It's cool how you can see all the stages of a tropical cyclone's life at one time today in the below satellite photo alone. I made a little writeup about it on my blog http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Daniel's barely a TS at this point (1003 mb/35 kt) and Emilia has weakened considerably from its Cat-4 peak-- now down to 967 mb/95 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 We also have a mandarin south of Acapulco. The mandarin, Invest 98E, might develop, but it doesn't appear to be as likely to develop into a major the way Daniel and Emilia did. The northwestward track will take it over cooler water sooner. It's a cherry now. What do you think Re: track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 It's a cherry now. What do you think Re: track? Same as yesterday. Northwestward but stays far away from MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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