HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 A large-area of low-potential mush (Invest 95E) is festering ~270 mi WSW of Manzanillo. It's been upgraded to Mandarin today, but the models are unenthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 A large-area of low-potential mush (Invest 95E) is festering ~270 mi WSW of Manzanillo. It's been upgraded to Mandarin today, but the models are unenthused. The Euro brought it up to near tropical storm strength overnight. I'm not exactly excited, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 The Euro brought it up to near tropical storm strength overnight. I'm not exactly excited, either. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Nice, big flareup centered SSE of Acapulco today-- but no fruits on the NHC map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Likely not an intercept candidate, but at least there is some activity in the EPAC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The long range guidance continues to advertise a potential Hurricane Daniel developing W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 The long range guidance continues to advertise a potential Hurricane Daniel developing W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As you suggested yesterday, it looks like fish food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Large-scale environmental condtions over the East Pacific are beginning to change to a more favorable state for the genesis of a tropical cyclone during the upcoming week. Strong upper-level easterly flow over the East Pacific has weakened considerably in association with the approaching convectively coupled (active phase) Kelvin wave from the west. Cool-colored contours represent negative Kelvin filtered VP200 anomalies, or the convectively active phase of the Kelvin wave. Genesis is most frequent *after* the passage of the convectively active phase of the Kelvin wave within the low-level westerly wind phase of the Kelvin wave, so we might expect a period favoring for the genesis a tropical cyclone over the East Pacific sometime later next week. To Loop this image (I apologize for missing TRMM data in some plots- they recently updated to verision 7 without telling me!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Large-scale environmental condtions over the East Pacific are beginning to change to a more favorable state for the genesis of a tropical cyclone during the upcoming week. Strong upper-level easterly flow over the East Pacific has weakened considerably in association with the approaching convectively coupled (active phase) Kelvin wave from the west. Cool-colored contours represent negative Kelvin filtered VP200 anomalies, or the convectively active phase of the Kelvin wave. Genesis is most frequent *after* the passage of the convectively active phase of the Kelvin wave within the low-level westerly wind phase of the Kelvin wave, so we might expect a period favoring for the genesis a tropical cyclone over the East Pacific sometime later next week. Cool-- I was just wondering about this. Any ideas Re: development areas? Like, stuff that may threaten the coast, or more fish-type action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Cool-- I was just wondering about this. Any ideas Re: development areas? Like, stuff that may threaten the coast, or more fish-type action? Unfortunately, it's too difficult to predict where the tropical cyclone will form after the passage of the Kelvin wave in the absence of an easterly wave. Also, the East Pacific is its own beast! If I'd had to place bets, I'd say a fish storm but no scientific reasoning behind it :-P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Unfortunately, it's too difficult to predict where the tropical cyclone will form after the passage of the Kelvin wave in the absence of an easterly wave. Also, the East Pacific is its own beast! If I'd had to place bets, I'd say a fish storm but no scientific reasoning behind it :-P Well, other than Eugene '87, there has been no documented hurricane hit in July from the EPac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Well, other than Eugene '87, there has been no documented hurricane hit in July from the EPac. There you go, getting all negative again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Well, other than Eugene '87, there has been no documented hurricane hit in July from the EPac. P.S. You left out Calvin 1993 and No. 3 of 1954. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 As you suggested yesterday, it looks like fish food. Lemon for the first (96E) fish in a series of two I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Wasn't what I was looking for, but yesterday's 12Z GFS ensembles had a veritable cornucopia, a plethora, of individual perturbations showing fish storms in the East Pac 9 days out. Euro on board. Note also, in the Caribbean, the Colombian heat low and 30 knot 850 mb Easterlies, aka an Eastern/Central Caribbean doing its best to obey the John Hope rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 96E continues to improve in structure and is now a Mandarin. The GFS is also suggesting a second stronger cyclone developing in the longer range near the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a future Daniel heads W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Yeah, the current Invest seems like fish food. Euro shows a moderate fish developing and heading W into the open Pacific in the 7-10-day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 The Mandarine's up to 50%. The Euro continues to advertise a cyclone well SW of Cabo in the 7-10-day range-- although it looks a bit stronger than it did yesterday (based on a casual glance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 It appears 96E is well on the way to becoming a depression, if it isn't already. The 12Z suite still suggests an even stronger cyclone developing next week just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 Fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Fish. Get the B.A.S.T.A.R.D. tuned. Those landing 'canes come September should take care of your 'disease'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Hi all, the center of the convectively active phase of the convectively-coupled Kelvin wave I spoke of last week is now located over 85-90W, or just to the east of 96E. The location of the invest relative to the CCKW suggests that the invest is now in an environment favorable for genesis (low-level westerly wind phase of the CCKW). I would place bets it becomes a named tropical cyclone in a matter of hours, if it is not already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Having a hard time getting too excited about TD #4. Stewart's discussion says the obvious NE shear should let up enough to allow it to briefly make hurricane status before the cold water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 5, 2012 Author Share Posted July 5, 2012 The fish has been named Daniel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Daniel is looking good this morning, CDO and spiral banding apparent on infrared. I think it could become a minimal hurricane before it starts to weaken over cooler waters in 24-48 hours. Full forecast at http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Daniel is looking good this morning, CDO and spiral banding apparent on infrared. I think it could become a minimal hurricane before it starts to weaken over cooler waters in 24-48 hours. Full forecast at http://weather.schematical.com/ I'm thinking perhaps 80-90 knots at max intensity. This inner core has really gotten better established today and I'd say that the environmental conditions are now favorable for rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Fish or not, Daniel certainly looks much better this afternoon and the NHC did mention a period of RI is possible the next day or two with the latest full package discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Looks like the low/mid level centers might not be fully aligned yet, but there is a mid-level eye feature trying to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 GFS and Euro both track readily identifiable remnants of Daniel in the general direction of the Hawai'ian islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 It's hard to tell given the lack of soundings over the Pacific, but Daniel certainly has the look of a cyclone that is experiencing mid-level shear. Outflow is still restricted to the north and microwave imagery shows the vortex is still tilted slightly to the southwest, despite the 850-200mb shear being in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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