eyewall Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I am wondering if this peaked in between advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I am wondering if this peaked in between advisories. Structure wise, yes. It's probably near peak right now as there's probably some momentum from the RIC that just ended an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 , there'll probably be no more updates from Puerto Escondido...1009mb and 13 mph winds , that's some compact storm SPECI MMPS 152329Z 36012KT 2SM +RA OVC004 24/23 A2980 RMK 8/// AEROPUERTO CERRADO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 500 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012 ...EYE OF CARLOTTA JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO VERY NEAR PUERTO ANGEL... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 96.6W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Wow-- I'm a little surprised it's only 90 kt. Still a really nice cyclone. Puerto Angel must be getting raked right now. P.S. Is the radar down? The current image is 2201Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Wow-- I'm a little surprised it's only 90 kt. Still a really nice cyclone. Puerto Angel must be getting raked right now. P.S. Is the radar down? The current image is 2201Z. Looks like stations and radar are down, and airport is closed...probably no more data from land. Hard left turn on satellite, it looks like it will avoid landfall for a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Nice looking cyclone raking the Mexican Riviera this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 The eye looks like it's just about to edge ashore. It's a nice-looking cyclone, but not as nice as earlier. Just like Pauline 1997, it's veering W, skimming the coast, and weakening due to land interaction-- with the center still offshore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 @1:15 the center is onshore over Puerto Escondido Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Yep. There ya have it. Assuming winds are at least 85 kt, Carlotta is a very rare example of a Cat-2 June landfall in this basin. Other examples include Alma 1996 and officially Bridget 1971 (although I think Bridget probably wasn't a Cat 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 All we are missing is a 'calamity' loop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Carlotta reminds me a bit of Karl 2010 in the NATL. Like Carlotta, Karl really exploded as it approached the coast, and for a little while, it looked like a really intense, perfectly-formed core was going to make landfall. But as Karl got close, those darn mountains disrupted the circulation and it lost some of its shape prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Carlotta reminds me a bit of Karl 2010 in the NATL. Like Carlotta, Karl really exploded as it approached the coast, and for a little while, it looked like a really intense, perfectly-formed core was going to make landfall. But as Karl got close, those darn mountains disrupted the circulation and it lost some of its shape prior to landfall. Yep, mountains are killers... that's probably why most of the intensifying while landfalling cyclones in MX are in the Yucatan and Tamaulipas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 As of the 8 pm PDT advisory, Carlotta is making landfall near Puerto Escondido with winds of 80 kt-- so it's not even a Cat 2. Hmmm. A nearby town, Pluma Hidalgo, reported a gust to 66 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanwx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca (Google map) reports easterly wind at 57 knots (gust to 86 knots) with pressure of 984.6 mb and intense rain (1.16 inch in 10 min) at 23:40 UTC. Josh, you ought to be there. Heck, I think I should go one of these days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca (Google map) reports easterly wind at 57 knots (gust to 86 knots) with pressure of 984.6 mb and intense rain (1.16 inch in 10 min) at 23:40 UTC. Josh, you ought to be there. Heck, I think I should go one of these days! Nice reading from Puerto Angel. Is it official? As to whether this would have been a good chase subject... Well... It looked incredibly hawt before landfall; that radar presentation was to die for. But it actually made landfall as a Cat 1-- so in the end, I don't feel I missed some historic event. I mean, it would have been cool to have been in Puerto Escondido-- which apparently got the eye-- but I'm cool with having tracked this from home. P.S. When I click that link, I get somewhere in the Netherlands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 The convection has increased a bit, probably due to land interaction. Major rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Carlotta is still a hurricane as of 2 am PDT, with winds of 65 kt. The center is just inland, about halfway between Puerto Escondido and Acapulco, and moving essentially along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Down to a TS in the intermediate advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanwx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Let's try that again. The remaining data from Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca, finally arrived here: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/ http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/txt/OX01_10M.TXT The Google map should have gone to: https://maps.google.com/maps?q=96%C2%B029'50%22W+15%C2%B040'16%22N&hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=15.671098,-96.497211&spn=0.035701,0.066047&sll=15.900584,-97.198792&sspn=2.282112,4.22699&t=p&z=15 but that apparently doesn't link correctly in our forum software. At 00:30 UTC, wind was southeasterly 74 knots, gust to 101 knots. Hurricane conditions lasted a half-hour (two hours in gusts) and tropical storm conditions 2 hours and 40 minutes (4 hours and 10 minutes in gusts). The wind at Pluma Hidalgo, Oaxaca, at 1372 m of altitude and north-northeast of Puerto Ángel, peaked at 49 knots with gust to 72 knots. https://maps.google.com/maps?q=96%C2%B025'00%22W++15%C2%B055'50%22N&hl=en&ie=UTF8&sll=16.171154,-96.486053&sspn=1.13956,2.113495&t=p&z=15 At Huatulco, Oaxaca, east of Puerto Ángel, wind reached 33 knots with gust to 48 knots https://maps.google.com/maps?q=96%C2%B008'02%22W+++15%C2%B048'53%22N&hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=15.814717,-96.133804&spn=0.035675,0.066047&sll=16.349132,-98.052979&sspn=0.569271,1.056747&t=p&z=15 Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, reported 22 knots with a gust of 37 knots, and that station lies very close to the harbor. San José del Peñasco (in the mountains above Puerto Ángel) experienced a brief gust to 41 knots, albeit with a sustained wind of just 12 knots. Those winds occurred during or within an hour after daylight. Farther up the coast, in hours of darkness, winds are...well, less impressive, mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Wow-- that Puerto Angel reading is solid. They got raked-- probably by the right eyewall, and probably when the cyclone was quite a bit stronger than it was at landfall further up the coast. The parallels with Pauline 1997 continue. Thanks very much for compiling these data-- much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 17, 2012 Author Share Posted June 17, 2012 Let's try that again. The remaining data from Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca, finally arrived here: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/ http://smn.cna.gob.m...xt/OX01_10M.TXT The Google map should have gone to: https://maps.google.....22699&t=p&z=15 but that apparently doesn't link correctly in our forum software. At 00:30 UTC, wind was southeasterly 74 knots, gust to 101 knots. Hurricane conditions lasted a half-hour (two hours in gusts) and tropical storm conditions 2 hours and 40 minutes (4 hours and 10 minutes in gusts). Hey, how's it going? I was trying to review the Puerto Angel data, but I can't find it. The text link is apparently dynamic, and only shows the last 24 hours of data. Do you have it saved anywhere, or do you know where else to find it? Jorge-- do you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Hey, how's it going? I was trying to review the Puerto Angel data, but I can't find it. The text link is apparently dynamic, and only shows the last 24 hours of data. Do you have it saved anywhere, or do you know where else to find it? Jorge-- do you know? http://smn.cna.gob.m...xt/OX01_60M.TXT TD conditions last few hours today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 http://smn.cna.gob.m...xt/OX01_60M.TXT TD conditions last few hours today. Thanks, Jorge! A few questions: 1. I assume that VELS = sustained and VELR = gust-- correct? 2. For the sustained, what's the averaging period-- 10 min or 1 min? 3. What's the unit of measurement-- km/hr? If so, the max sustained wind in this record is 61 kt (113 km/hr)-- below hurricane force. 4. They take readings every 10 min, but these readings are hourly. Do you have access to the 10-min readings? They might shed more light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Thanks, Jorge! A few questions: 1. I assume that VELS = sustained and VELR = gust-- correct? 2. For the sustained, what's the averaging period-- 10 min or 1 min? 3. What's the unit of measurement-- km/hr? If so, the max sustained wind in this record is 61 kt (113 km/hr)-- below hurricane force. 4. They take readings every 10 min, but these readings are hourly. Do you have access to the 10-min readings? They might shed more light. 1. Yep 2. Not sure 3. Yep...I think I remember the 10-min readings had 74G101 4. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 1. Yep 2. Not sure 3. Yep...I think I remember the 10-min readings had 74G101 4. Nope I texted that reading to you-- but did you see it somewhere independently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I texted that reading to you-- but did you see it somewhere independently? I saw it in the smn website that day after snowmanwx posted about it... I verified it in the link he gave (10 min obs) BTW, I didn't receive any texts from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 http://www.wundergro...num=2122&page=1 Comment 54 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 http://www.wundergro...num=2122&page=1 Comment 54 or so. You're such a talented and uncompromising researcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 I do wonder if that was 10-min or 1-min. If it's 10-min, then Puerto Angel got raked by solid Cat-2 conditions. (That having been said, I guess the site elevation needs to be considered.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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