andyhb Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Just so everyone sees this, Jorge is saying we're going to have another Andrew this year. Well yes, I'll be sure to try to make another appearance this year, although I'll have to use my alias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 I want a category 5 hurricane with a 1000 mb pressure this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 I want a category 5 hurricane with a 1000 mb pressure this year. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 I want a category 5 hurricane with a 1000 mb pressure this year. You've spent way too much time in PR today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 I want a category 5 hurricane with a 1000 mb pressure this year. It happened in 2007 with Felix. Only on the GFS initialization though, actual recon measured pressure was in the 920s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Long-range GEFS popping lots of early season action. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Looking at H5, some low height anomalies in that area which might signify some sort of possible ST type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 SOI up to +26.0. 30 average went back postive. 3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Here is a graph of the SOI this season: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php this is a graph of 2004: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php?year=2004 this is 2005: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php?year=2005 it was alot more negative in 04 and 05, at least up to this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 12Z GFS perfect fanstasy cane for Miami. Heat could play rest of season at Madison Square Garden. JB Tweet of WeatherBell free Hurricane forecast. https://twitter.com/...0/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 0Z and 6Z GFS remain remarkably consistent for a post truncation 12 day forecast for something in the Caribbean. It stirs the inner weenie in me. And the ensembles, well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 JB Tweet of WeatherBell free Hurricane forecast. https://twitter.com/...0/photo/1/large That is one janky looking forecast. I mean seriously, with half an effort you could make something better than that in Microsoft Paint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 That is one janky looking forecast. I mean seriously, with half an effort you could make something better than that in Microsoft Paint. Seriously. I often do make better graphics using MS Paint. It can actually be quite useful sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 This is quite a rise in sst's across the atlantic during the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Its possible that the signal that the GFS sees in the long range is actually more of a reflection of the favorable conditions relative to this time of the year that will be developing in the East Pacific. I think its far more likely that we will see TCG take place in the East Pacific, perhaps from vorticity originating in the Caribbean. Its interesting that the GFS is playing with the vorticity post 192 hour spatial truncation which is resulting in a much larger area of 850 hPa vorticity than the area before spatial truncation. My hunch is that enhancement is bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 TWC's Dr. Knabb agrees with Phil, blames resolution reduction for GFS spinup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 TWC's Dr. Knabb agrees with Phil, blames resolution reduction for GFS spinup. I blame that it's not even mid May yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 I blame that it's not even mid May yet. Not that I think this is going to be Alberto, but uh: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2007H/ANDREA/track.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 It's difficult for me to tell, but it seems like the EC ensembles are hinting at something east of the Yucatan too. Nothing like the GEFS, but I was looking at precip probs to see if it tries to match the MSLP prog and it looked like it agreed. Still, it's a weak signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Interesting to note that the models continue to show something out in the day 7-15 period, with the GFS still the most bullish east of the Yucatan, while the EC/ECENS hints at something more east of FL. Looks more ST as has been discussed but could eventually become more tropical if something were to get going given the water temperatures. Still not a high probability obviously, but something to keep an eye on. And May systems are of course not unheard of: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Able_(1951) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 We have 92L in the sub tropical ATL. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Id say thats close to being Alberto. Sent from my VS910 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Meh Wow, when you take a step back you realize just how small that thing is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Wow, when you take a step back you realize just how small that thing is! It really looks no different then some of those Mediterranean "hurricanes" that form within a larger cyclonic envelope. In fact, come to think of it, it likely is no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 I think this is already a tropical storm, and a vigorous one at that. Classic scenario of a cold core low moistening and warming in the low levels until it becomes warm core, and probably the most common type of tropical cyclone before season starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 GFS thinks this may actually become somewhat tropical over the next day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 It's already clearly "tropical", the hurricane center has never been very good at responding quickly when it comes to genesis. They say they do it to reduce false storms, but they take way too much liberty with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 It's already clearly "tropical", the hurricane center has never been very good at responding quickly when it comes to genesis. They say they do it to reduce false storms, but they take way too much liberty with that. There is a time threshold definition that is required for the continued production of deep convection over the center of circulation. While the storm did look very tropical earlier today, the convection has waned recently and looks less organized currently. I don't think the organization of the storm persisted long enough today to fit the qualifications of a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Time was definitely the issue with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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