klw Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Nice little swirl in the NE Gulf. Had to practice a picture posting to get ready for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Textbook Gulf MCV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 On 5/3/2012 at 8:14 PM, HurricaneJosh said: Less than a month to go. The countdown has begun. Oh. Hi. Nice to see you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 On 5/3/2012 at 9:31 PM, am19psu said: Oh. Hi. Nice to see you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 JB on Twitter- WeatherHell PPV subscribers can get details of pre-June 15th El Nino type close in non-tropical to tropical development. If we could do 2001 all over again, but cut it back by about 2/3rds, that would be a good thing. Full 15 or 20 inches, the lawn is too wet to mow for many days, its past knee high when mowable, and ripping up carpets and sheetrock is no fun. And, more importantly, Josh isn't going to appreciate any hybrid/open on the West side 45 knot storm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 On 5/4/2012 at 4:40 PM, Ed Lizard said: JB on Twitter- WeatherHell PPV subscribers can get details of pre-June 15th El Nino type close in non-tropical to tropical development. If we could do 2001 all over again, but cut it back by about 2/3rds, that would be a good thing. Full 15 or 20 inches, the lawn is too wet to mow for many days, its past knee high when mowable, and ripping up carpets and sheetrock is no fun. And, more importantly, Josh isn't going to appreciate any hybrid/open on the West side 45 knot storm anyway. Assuming there really is going to be an El Nino, June actually has averaged above climo norms in terms of # of storms during or in advance of El Nino's. July and beyond average below the norm. The weaker the Nino, the less the quieting effect on average, which is intuitive Actually, 2004 and 1969 were weak El Nino seasons, but they were VERY active. So, if I were Josh or another hurricane enthusiast, I'd be hoping for a weak El Nino as opposed to a stronger one. I'd also be hoping for a less negative SOI for especially July-Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 On 5/4/2012 at 7:29 PM, GaWx said: Assuming there really is going to be an El Nino, June actually has averaged above climo norms in terms of # of storms during or in advance of El Nino's. July and beyond average below the norm. The weaker the Nino, the less the quieting effect on average. Actually, 2004 and 1969 were weak El Nino seasons, but they were VERY active. If the high pressures predicted by the european model pan out i think it might be quite hard to have a high number season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 On 5/4/2012 at 7:33 PM, Eyewall2005 said: If the high pressures predicted by the european model pan out i think it might be quite hard to have a high number season. can you post a map of this if possible? That would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 On 5/4/2012 at 11:14 PM, PottercountyWXobserver said: can you post a map of this if possible? That would be great lol If this pans out, we'll be lucky to have a season at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Ouch! That MSLP from the euro model is ugly. Counting on some homebrew to save us.. Some notorious tropical cyclones have hit the U.S during el nino years so well see how things pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 My new rules for scoring hurricane seasons. TD: 0pts TS <60MPH: 1/4 pts TS> 60MPH: 1/2 pts Hurricane: 1pts Cat 3+ Hurricane: 2pts Cat 5 Hurricane: 3pts I'll add up the totals at the end of the season and compare it to other seasons if it's even worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 On 5/5/2012 at 7:13 PM, Amped said: My new rules for scoring hurricane seasons. TD: 0pts TS <60MPH: 1/4 pts TS> 60MPH: 1/2 pts Hurricane: 1pts Cat 3+ Hurricane: 2pts Cat 5 Hurricane: 3pts I'll add up the totals at the end of the season and compare it to other seasons if it's even worthy An interesting concept, but it seems there ought to be a factor for size and duration. ACE anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 the SOI has been positive the last 3 days. i remain optimistic about the soon to come hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 On 5/6/2012 at 4:49 PM, cbmclean said: An interesting concept, but it seems there ought to be a factor for size and duration. ACE anyone? They already have an ACE rating, so I thought I'd come up with something that can be calculated quickly without a computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/6/2012 at 6:04 PM, carley5 said: the SOI has been positive the last 3 days. i remain optimistic about the soon to come hurricane season. 2012 2010 2009 Silver lining is that ENSO is not warming dramatically, and models will be too warm, at least early on their predictions. I still stay put for an ASO trimonthly neutral warm...and a peak at nothing above weak El Niño in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Does anyone have an SLP map of 2003? I remember SLPs were pretty crazily high that year (Danny was a hurricane with a 1000+ mb pressure)... yet that didn't prevent a 16 storm season from occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/6/2012 at 4:49 PM, cbmclean said: An interesting concept, but it seems there ought to be a factor for size and duration. ACE anyone? Also doesn't work because it increases at a quasi-linear, not an exponential rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Silver lining is 26ºC SST isotherm to near MLB and the beginning of GFS 16 day Fantasy Storm Season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 4:51 PM, PSUBlizzicane2007 said: Does anyone have an SLP map of 2003? I remember SLPs were pretty crazily high that year (Danny was a hurricane with a 1000+ mb pressure)... yet that didn't prevent a 16 storm season from occurring. Meh, not in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 4:55 PM, am19psu said: Meh, not in the means. Thanks. That at least explains why Danny and the other northern storms were so high in pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Usually El Niños have higher than normal SLPs across the tropical Atlantic basin, but they have been countered by warmer than normal SSTs since 1995. 2009, 2006, 2004 and 1997 had lower pressures in the subtropics, but near normal to just slightly above in the tropics...same for 1994... 1993 was higher than normal across the tropics. The last season that had higher than normal SLP across most of the tropical Atlantic, like what the Euro has been showing was 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 6:16 PM, wxmx said: Usually El Niños have higher than normal SLPs across the tropical Atlantic basin, but they have been countered by warmer than normal SSTs since 1995. 2009, 2006, 2004 and 1997 had lower pressures in the subtropics, but near normal to just slightly above in the tropics...same for 1994... 1993 was higher than normal across the tropics. The last season that had higher than normal SLP across most of the tropical Atlantic, like what the Euro has been showing was 1992. Just so everyone sees this, Jorge is saying we're going to have another Andrew this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 6:27 PM, am19psu said: Just so everyone sees this, Jorge is saying we're going to have another Andrew this year. At least. Remember, it just takes one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 6:29 PM, wxmx said: At least. Remember, it just takes one That "remember" reminder is a good thing, lest the entire board stop watching the weather until June 2013 and a hurricane takes them by surprise. Latest 16 day GFS shows an almost closed off low in the Carla Cradle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Anyone care to share any ideas on the synoptic pattern this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 6:27 PM, am19psu said: Just so everyone sees this, Jorge is saying we're going to have another Andrew this year. I'm gonna bookmark this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 8:01 PM, Isopycnic said: I'm gonna bookmark this. Well in my view of things based on the synoptic steering that's evolving storms with similar tracks is possible this season 2004/2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 6:16 PM, wxmx said: Usually El Niños have higher than normal SLPs across the tropical Atlantic basin, but they have been countered by warmer than normal SSTs since 1995. 2009, 2006, 2004 and 1997 had lower pressures in the subtropics, but near normal to just slightly above in the tropics...same for 1994... 1993 was higher than normal across the tropics. The last season that had higher than normal SLP across most of the tropical Atlantic, like what the Euro has been showing was 1992. if this is what the euro is depicting for this summer isnt it at odds with alot of peoples temp forecasts? that shows higher than normal pressures over the eastern half of the nation which i would think would lead to above normal temps and below normal precip. yet, i have been hearing it will be a cool summer in alot of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 8:25 PM, Eyewall2005 said: Well in my view of things based on the synoptic steering that's evolving storms with similar tracks is possible this season 2004/2008. 2001 may fit in this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 On 5/7/2012 at 8:44 PM, carley5 said: if this is what the euro is depicting for this summer isnt it at odds with alot of peoples temp forecasts? that shows higher than normal pressures over the eastern half of the nation which i would think would lead to above normal temps and below normal precip. yet, i have been hearing it will be a cool summer in alot of the east. Tropics http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31496-atlantic-tropical-action-2012-part-i/page__st__210__p__1535144#entry1535144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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