am19psu Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Pffft, what inactive season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Pffft, what inactive season? I'd feel even happier if 850 mb temps weren't colder than surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Very nice looking system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 JB will be on local FM all news station in Houston to pimp Weatherbell discuss Hurricane Season 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 JB will be on local FM all news station in Houston to pimp Weatherbell discuss Hurricane Season 2012 And he won't bring any insights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 And he won't bring any insights. No, he didn't. BTW, JB Twitter about STS. I don't subscribe, I think he is describing a stacked low, which judging from GFS ( Canadian also has it to a lesser degree) shear fields never gets out from under an upper low. Probably not even a name waster. FSU phase diagram, it makes a run towards warm core, never quite gets there, dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Can't believe we're only a month and a half from season. Kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Can't believe we're only a month and a half from season. Kinda cool. yeah, tis the time of year when even dreams of inevitable Cape Verde teasers dance lovingly in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 i dont feel as pessimistic as many seem to. 13 named storm, 8 hurricanes, and 3/4 majors seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 yeah, tis the time of year when even dreams of inevitable Cape Verde teasers dance lovingly in the air Omg. Can't believe you said that. P.S. Jorge (wxmx) told me the other day that he's expecting a slow-ish season, but that the activity should be closer to home, rather than Cape Verde systems-- which I would be cool with, given my deep, white-hot hatred for Cape Verde systems. i dont feel as pessimistic as many seem to. 13 named storm, 8 hurricanes, and 3/4 majors seems about right. That sounds more like it. I'm going to hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 2004, 1985, and 1998 come to mind as far as tracks are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 SOI is up to +29.7 and has been positive for last 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 SOI is up to +29.7 and has been positive for last 7 days. The monthly averaged SOI's will be intereresting to follow through the summer as there seems to be a partial positive correlation between it and MDR Atlantic tropical activity with not too much of a lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 If we do have the slowest season in 16 years, or maybe even 30 years, and the Atlantic and East Pac are completely dead, I think that would be special in its own way. Reminds me of the hope I had last Summer about breaking our 100ºF consecutive days record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 12Z Canadian came fairly close to spinning up a ersatz hybrid low just East of Florida in 5 days. Yes, that is grasping for straws, but this means the season of the Canadian spinning up spurious storms for Miami and New Orleans can't be much more than a month away. In somewhat more likely to be accurate computer modelling/tropical news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 12Z Canadian came fairly close to spinning up a ersatz hybrid low just East of Florida in 5 days. Yes, that is grasping for straws, but this means the season of the Canadian spinning up spurious storms for Miami and New Orleans can't be much more than a month away. In somewhat more likely to be accurate computer modelling/tropical news... lol Complete opposite of the past two seasons. In my opinion, there's no way we beat the cr@piest season in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 lol Complete opposite of the past two seasons. In my opinion, there's no way we beat the cr@piest season in recent memory. Well... 1997 sucked, but 1982-1983 was pretty horrific also. Alicia was cool and redeemed 1983 to some degree-- but that one event aside, there was simply nothing even remotely cool about those two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 1994 wasn't that great either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Well... 1997 sucked From a purely scientific perspective, Danny was pretty cool. It intensified into a hurricane basically in Mobile Bay despite rolling into 20-25 kts of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 From a purely scientific perspective, Danny was pretty cool. It intensified into a hurricane basically in Mobile Bay despite rolling into 20-25 kts of shear. It then intensified over NC on the way to the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Bless The Crazy Uncle's heart, still chumming the water w/ subtropical weenie bait around Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 From a purely scientific perspective, Danny was pretty cool. It intensified into a hurricane basically in Mobile Bay despite rolling into 20-25 kts of shear. Most awesome lightning show when the MCS dropped South through Lafayette on its way to the Gulf. Small market (but good) met Rob Perillo identified that as a possible non-tropical system that had potential. I got to enjoy watching that develop, then driving to Venice to go offshore less than a week after danny hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 There is a bit of deeper convection firing in the SW Caribbean this morning with a hint of mid/upper level spin. Perhaps this will be the next area to watch for an eventual invest. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 There is a bit of deeper convection firing in the SW Caribbean this morning with a hint of mid/upper level spin. Perhaps this will be the next area to watch for an eventual invest. We will see. It's been clear in the modeling that the old upper level low would produce deep convection over the Caribbean, but it is all dynamically driven aloft, thanks to the right entrance of a jet streak overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 New 12Z Canadian brings a weak disturbance Northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico and rains on Louisiana. No, seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Besides the swirl around Florida apparently modelled by the GFS/Canadian earlier this week that could rain a bit on Louisiana in a couple of days, something way out in the middle of nowhere? Well, potential would be limited by SSTs around or below 20º ...But end of April/beginning of May, have to get excited over little things But the GFS does have a weak anticyclone over the top of a deep surface low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 The atlantic ridge is very weak and its possible the forecasts of below normal sst's in the MDR may have been premature. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.4.26.2012.gif I suspect we will see further warming in the tropical atlantic SST's. right now it appears about 60% of the MDR is above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 That swirl over Florida does seem like a hybrid system. Regardless of what it is it's gonna dump tons of rain on SE Florida. I just called my parents and warned them about the incoming deluge, GFS shows 5-10". This might cause windy conditions too, already seeing gusts over 25 mph on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Less than a month to go. The countdown has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Should be an interesting season regardless of if we get 9 storms or 14... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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