Ed Lizard Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 To keep Steve excited, 1983, weakening El Nino or not, was a complete dud season, and while Alicia was closer to the heart of the season than Bonnie, Alicia, and 1986's Cat 1 Bonnie, formed in a semi-typical Nino way, from non-tropical sources. A Cat 1 hitting safely up the coast from Galveston Island doesn't imperil the vacation homes of retirees, but would provide plenty of forum excitement at KHOU-11 TV local weather forum. Last years weeks on end of 100ºF dry weather meant little interest in the forum. Or the Texas/Louisiana thread on the Central subforum here at AmWx. I don't remember either Alicia or Bonnie, I was working out of state for Ronald Reagan during Alicia and was in the Eastern Hemipshere for Bonnie, but thank goodness for the Wiki on Bonnie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 To keep Steve excited, 1983, weakening El Nino or not, was a complete dud season, and while Alicia was closer to the heart of the season than Bonnie, Alicia, and 1986's Cat 1 Bonnie, formed in a semi-typical Nino way, from non-tropical sources. A Cat 1 hitting safely up the coast from Galveston Island doesn't imperil the vacation homes of retirees, but would provide plenty of forum excitement at KHOU-11 TV local weather forum. Last years weeks on end of 100ºF dry weather meant little interest in the forum. Or the Texas/Louisiana thread on the Central subforum here at AmWx. I don't remember either Alicia or Bonnie, I was working out of state for Ronald Reagan during Alicia and was in the Eastern Hemipshere for Bonnie, but thank goodness for the Wiki on Bonnie. I agree with you Ed that a TX / LA cat 1 landfall is not at all uncommon in Ninos, and would certainly bring more excitement to that particular region than either of the last 2 "busy" seasons did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Our stats guy, Ptarmigan, at KHOU-TV 11, found a brief prelim from Klotzbach/Gray, 70% of below normal season... http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2012/mar2012/mar2012.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Our stats guy, Ptarmigan, at KHOU-TV 11, found a brief prelim from Klotzbach/Gray, 70% of below normal season... http://tropical.atmo...012/mar2012.pdf Dr. Klotzbach & Dr. Gray release a brief update prior to the National Hurricane Conference next week in Orlando... http://hurricane.atm...012/mar2012.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 He started a thread on the local forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Whether we have 5 named storms or 15 all it takes is a 2 week unfavorable steering regime and its a bad year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Just because of the million "it all takes one" posts every offseason, there will only be 5 hurricanes and one of them will barrel into Miami as a Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Just because of the million "it all takes one" posts every offseason, there will only be 5 hurricanes and one of them will barrel into Miami as a Cat 5. No thanks bud Ive been done that back in 92. Just find it amusing all this seasonal prediction talk when we can't even predict steering currents without any good accuracy 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 No thanks bud Ive been done that back in 92. Just find it amusing all this seasonal prediction talk when we can't even predict steering currents without any good accuracy 2 weeks out. 1) Some people don't care about steering currents, but overall activity. It may be amusing for some, but that shouldn't preclude discussion. 2) Enhanced overall activity is correlated with higher number of landfalls. It's useful even for people who think that if we can't predict steering current in the long range. Energy sector and government, among other sectors find seasonal prediction useful, even if it's vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Anyone else going to the American Meteorological Society hurricane conference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 1) Some people don't care about steering currents, but overall activity. It may be amusing for some, but that shouldn't preclude discussion. 2) Enhanced overall activity is correlated with higher number of landfalls. It's useful even for people who think that if we can't predict steering current in the long range. Energy sector and government, among other sectors find seasonal prediction useful, even if it's vague. Hey iam always in for any disussion concerning hurricanes. Tropical meteorology has always be huge passion of mine. Hopefully this seasons brings some interesting storms to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Anyone else going to the American Meteorological Society hurricane conference? This the one in Orlando? One of the local KHOU-TV 11 forum pro-mets, and energy sector/tropical guy (Winter in Texas seems to bore him), "WxMan57" is going. 57's last post said he hoped to talk w/ Dr. Klotzbach one on one during the conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The MCV that moved off Texas is a month or two too early. I can almost see a hint of anticyclonic cirrus outflow on the Northern side of it, and 3 or 4ºC more SST and I think it'd be on the road to sub-tropical glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 2004 was a weak El nino with a very activ season. The rest of the El Ninos stunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Not that analogs are a certainty, but a wise man has suggested 1957, 1965 as well as 2000 and 2001 may be a good fit for the upcoming season. Audrey, Betsy and a sloppy retired TS named Allison anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Well... Not amazing news. But I will point out that 2001 brought one of the sexiest of the sexycanes: Iris 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 The MCV that moved off Texas is a month or two too early. I can almost see a hint of anticyclonic cirrus outflow on the Northern side of it, and 3 or 4ºC more SST and I think it'd be on the road to sub-tropical glory. It looked very interesting on radar too as it came offshore. Certainly the prettiest thing in the basin since last fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 It looked very interesting on radar too as it came offshore. Certainly the prettiest thing in the basin since last fall! Yup, if it had taken a more southerly track we could've had our first storm. Mesoscale convective systems (basically squall lines) have all the makings of a tropical cyclone when they develop a mesoscale convective vortex. There's a tremendous amount of stratiform rain near the MCV center, leading to latent heat release and the development of a warm core. The LHR enhances the pressure minimum and you get the classic TC-esque in up and out circulation. Also, vorticity from deep convection in the squall line feeds into the MCV lowering the pressure further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 OK, so is the NATL season going to be pure crap? Let's get it out on the table. Say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 OK, so is the NATL season going to be pure crap? Let's get it out on the table. Say it. The NATL season is going to be pure crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 The NATL season is going to be pure crap. Well at least AGW will allow for fewer, but stronger hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 OK, so is the NATL season going to be pure crap? Let's get it out on the table. Say it. Won't know until it happens like every other year. Seasonal forecasts of TC activity are a long ways from being credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Won't know until it happens like every other year. Seasonal forecasts of TC activity are a long ways from being credible. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 FWIW, WeatherBell expects a below normal Atlantic hurricane season: Named storms: 9-12 Hurricanes: 4-6 Major hurricanes: 2-3 ACE Index: 75-95 http://www.forbes.com/sites/weatherbell/2012/04/03/damaging-hurricanes-could-impact-energy-insurance-industries-in-2012/ Unfortunately, the article also took a shot at the NHC. In part, it stated, "While the National Hurricane Center may be quick to name storms all across the Atlantic Basin, not all named tropical systems are created equally." That commentary creates the impression that if the WeatherBell forecast is too low, rather than recognizing forecasting error (inherent in all seasonal forecasts) as the reason, the implication would be that the NHC "named" too many storms, some of which should not have been named. The reality is that the NHC is highly professional, and is committed both to objectivity and excellence. The NHC does not name storms for the sake of naming them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Just to add to the discussion: Dr Gray's forecast: 10-4-2 75% average http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2012/apr2012/apr2012.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 Just to add to the discussion: Dr Gray's forecast: 10-4-2 75% average http://tropical.atmo...012/apr2012.pdf Yep-- looks pretty blah. The probability of a major-hurricane landfall in the USA is put at 42% (compared with the century-long average of 52%). I'm still not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Am I the only one who thinks the "it only takes one" thing people always throw in for forecast slow seasons isn't really some kind of public service announcement, as if people on the a weather board will log off until November and not pay attention because Klotzbach/Gray predicted a slow season, but is rather a form of weeniesih optimist, more like "it only takes one, we can still hit the Southern suburbs of Miami with a Cat 5 even if the season is otherwise deadly dull monster warm ENSO". Or maybe that is just my own glass half full optimism leaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I’m not so sure the season will be a total dud. The tendency has been to rush the ENSO state a bit too fast, IMO thus lending to neutral conditions during the summer and possibly the beginning of peak season. My favored areas continue to be the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf for early storm activity transitioning to the Central Caribbean as peak season nears. As far as an early WAG, I believe that 13/5/2 seems reasonable at this point, but realizing that a bit earlier arrival of El Nino conditions could lead to a bit lower numbers. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I’m not so sure the season will be a total dud. The tendency has been to rush the ENSO state a bit too fast, IMO thus lending to neutral conditions during the summer and possibly the beginning of peak season. My favored areas continue to be the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf for early storm activity transitioning to the Central Caribbean as peak season nears. As far as an early WAG, I believe that 13/5/2 seems reasonable at this point, but realizing that a bit earlier arrival of El Nino conditions could lead to a bit lower numbers. We will see. My research suggests that El Nino's more often than not tend to start slowing things down vs. climo when the SOI gets pretty solidly negative, which often occurs a couple of months earlier than when we're in a Nino based on 3.4 SST anomalies reaching and remaining above +0.5 C. It will be interesting to see what happens this time if we get a Nino. That having been said, I'm currently leaning to a weak to perhaps moderate strength Nino assuming one verifies. If it ends up as only weak, then the quieting effect would probably not be as strong as with a typical moderate+ Nino. Edit: Despite quieter on average during the July-Nov. period as a whole during Nino's, June's actually average above longterm climo. (I'm guessing due to more disturbances tending to drift into the Gulf during Nino's in June). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I’m not so sure the season will be a total dud. The tendency has been to rush the ENSO state a bit too fast, IMO thus lending to neutral conditions during the summer and possibly the beginning of peak season. My favored areas continue to be the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf for early storm activity transitioning to the Central Caribbean as peak season nears. As far as an early WAG, I believe that 13/5/2 seems reasonable at this point, but realizing that a bit earlier arrival of El Nino conditions could lead to a bit lower numbers. We will see. Eurosip is a monster warm ENSO, but maybe the CFS will be the blind squirrel this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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