SNO Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Josh...very cool video. The power of Hurricanes are incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 Josh...very cool video. The power of Hurricanes are incredible. Thanks very much! I'm glad you liked it. Re: your comment... I tried to pick powerful clips, so I'm glad that came through. I think the last one (Jova) most conveys that feeling of awesome hurricane power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Check out my latest video creation: iCyclone10. It takes you on a mad dash through my last 10 chases in just 6 minutes, showing only a few sexy clips from each cyclone-- sort of like a "greatest hits" piece! Oh, and I slapped a fun intro on it. (It's actually a promo piece for that compilation DVD that's coming out this summer-- I swear it. ) Oh, if you like it, please click Like on YouTube. Nice work Josh. I "liked" it for you too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 Nice work Josh. I "liked" it for you too! Hey, thanks-- I appreciate it. Glad you liked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Very classy promo, Josh and I would expect nothing less of you. I look forward to the DVD by Conference II and hope that my sig doesn't include additional cyclones this year... I've been chased enough throughout the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Check out my latest video creation: iCyclone10. It takes you on a mad dash through my last 10 chases in just 6 minutes, showing only a few sexy clips from each cyclone-- sort of like a "greatest hits" piece! Oh, and I slapped a fun intro on it. (It's actually a promo piece for that compilation DVD that's coming out this summer-- I swear it. ) Oh, if you like it, please click Like on YouTube. Great video, and I also "liked" it on youtube. It's cool how I've followed each of these chases (except for Wilma) over the years. It was fun seeing them all recapped in one video. And I forgot just how vicious the winds in Jova were! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 LOVE the video, Josh!!! Better have them ready for AMWX II so I can get one for the hubby!!!! Can't WAIT to see you in Balmore, my friend!!! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Holy cow! Amazing video. Amazing just hearing the roar of the winds. I like the video of Karl, Jova, and Irene the best. Nice Job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Great video, I clicked the like button! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Josh is the Man on this board, an absolutely instrumental part of any of my enjoyment in weather hobbyism. I really miss daylight videos of storms, so it was nice to see several of those. Not that those classic scenes of Jova at night didn't capture the essence of the onslaught, BUT there is something about a daylight hit that just adds so much-just look at tornado hits in Alabama last year. All I say is pray for neutral ENSO. the southern jet this winter was a bit too active given the ENSO state; let it not be a bell tolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Sizzilin hot indeed, can't wait to buy your DVD compilation Josh. Some of the best film I have ever seen and that's just the promo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Eastern Atlantic warming up a bit? This area was locked in below-normal anomalies in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Very classy promo, Josh and I would expect nothing less of you. I look forward to the DVD by Conference II and hope that my sig doesn't include additional cyclones this year... I've been chased enough throughout the years. Hush-- I want me a sexy Texan cyclone this year. It's been too long since TX has gotten something really hawt. Anyhoo, glad you liked the video-- thanks, Steve. Great video, and I also "liked" it on youtube. It's cool how I've followed each of these chases (except for Wilma) over the years. It was fun seeing them all recapped in one video. And I forgot just how vicious the winds in Jova were! Wow! Thanks, Jaine! Wow-- have you really followed all my chases since Wilma? That is so awesome. Re: Jova... Yeah, I know what you mean. Seeing all ten cyclones side-by-side, Jova seems peculiarly violent. I'm still puzzled by it. Thanks for Liking it on YouTube and sharing it on Facebook-- that's really nice of you. LOVE the video, Josh!!! Better have them ready for AMWX II so I can get one for the hubby!!!! Can't WAIT to see you in Balmore, my friend!!! --Turtle A conference ain't complete without Turtle. I forgot your husband is a closet chaser. Glad you liked the video, Eleanor-- thank you. Holy cow! Amazing video. Amazing just hearing the roar of the winds. I like the video of Karl, Jova, and Irene the best. Nice Job! Hey, thanks, dude! I appreciate that! Also, thanks for letting me know which ones you like the most. It's actually interesting to me to hear this, as I'm so close to the material that I don't see it objectively anymore. That having been said, Karl and Jova are two of my favorites, also. I think audio is a big part of hurricane footage-- it's a really important part of the experience. Great video, I clicked the like button! Thanks very much! Josh is the Man on this board, an absolutely instrumental part of any of my enjoyment in weather hobbyism. I really miss daylight videos of storms, so it was nice to see several of those. Not that those classic scenes of Jova at night didn't capture the essence of the onslaught, BUT there is something about a daylight hit that just adds so much-just look at tornado hits in Alabama last year. All I say is pray for neutral ENSO. the southern jet this winter was a bit too active given the ENSO state; let it not be a bell tolling... Wow-- thank you so much!! I am deeply flattered that you like my work so much. I totally agree Re: nighttime landfalls versus daytime ones. It makes such an enormous difference-- and it drives me crazy that you don't really know what it's going to be until maybe a day in advance. It bums me that Jova came ashore at night. While I guess the darkness makes the footage creepier and scarier, so many more cool details would have come through by daylight. So much happened outside of the narrow area lit by the car headlights: the trees across the highway were bending and waving like crazy, and there was a lot more flying debris than what you see in the video. Sizzilin hot indeed, can't wait to buy your DVD compilation Josh. Some of the best film I have ever seen and that's just the promo. Omg, thank you! That's an awesome compliment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I can't believe we are already looking towards hurricane season again.....where does the time go? Hopefully we will have a slow year in the gulf. Gas prices are already high enough and another major hurricane out there could really hurt us badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 I can't believe we are already looking towards hurricane season again.....where does the time go? Hopefully we will have a slow year in the gulf. Gas prices are already high enough and another major hurricane out there could really hurt us badly. Thanks, Dr. Buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Thanks, Dr. Buzzkill. Sorry for the selfishness but i'm driving a full size pickup that gets 15mpg and has a 26 gallon tank so filling up hurts bad enough already. If we have another major in the gulf that shuts down the oil rigs then we could see gas prices go through the roof. Maybe we can settle for a caribbean cruiser that slams into the yuc as a tight cored cat 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Sorry for the selfishness but i'm driving a full size pickup that gets 15mpg and has a 26 gallon tank so filling up hurts bad enough already. If we have another major in the gulf that shuts down the oil rigs then we could see gas prices go through the roof. Maybe we can settle for a caribbean cruiser that slams into the yuc as a tight cored cat 4? Deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Thanks, Jaine! Wow-- have you really followed all my chases since Wilma? That is so awesome. Re: Jova... Yeah, I know what you mean. Seeing all ten cyclones side-by-side, Jova seems peculiarly violent. I'm still puzzled by it. Thanks for Liking it on YouTube and sharing it on Facebook-- that's really nice of you. No problem! Yeah, I joined Eastern in 2006. So I've followed all of your adventures since then. Following a Josh chase is kind of like a Christmas or a birthday present... it only happens once or twice a year, but it's always something I look forward to! I think the most memorable one for me was Dean, because it was the first big hurricane I really tracked, and I was also really worried about you! Here's to a neutral ENSO and a recovery of the negative SST anomalies in the MDR! Or, if not, a great season for you in Mexico. Interestingly, I'm going to be spending a good portion of my time in California this summer... I probably wouldn't have the guts to travel in Mexico during a hurricane like you do though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Dr. Klotzbach & Dr. Gray release a brief update prior to the National Hurricane Conference next week in Orlando... The combination of a warming tropical Pacific and a cooling tropical Atlantic are leading us to think that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the average 1981-2010 season. However, we stress the need to realize that there is inherent uncertainty in seasonal TC prediction. In addition, hurricanes can make landfall in inactive seasons and do major damage (e.g., Alicia in 1983 and Andrew in 1992). Coastal residents need to prepare the same for every hurricane season. A full discussion of the outlook for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will be available with the first quantitative forecast issued on Wednesday, April 4. This forecast will include predictions for numbers of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, etc. http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2012/mar2012/mar2012.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 No problem! Yeah, I joined Eastern in 2006. So I've followed all of your adventures since then. Following a Josh chase is kind of like a Christmas or a birthday present... it only happens once or twice a year, but it's always something I look forward to! You're very sweet. I think the most memorable one for me was Dean, because it was the first big hurricane I really tracked, and I was also really worried about you! Ha ha, you and me, both! It's the only chase I can remember in which I started to feel spooked as it was approaching, rather than feeling excited and pumped. The hair on the back of my neck was standing up as I looked at each IR image-- the way the storm was looking more and more perfectly organized as it neared the coast. I started to wonder what was going to happen-- would I get out alive?, etc. Years later, honestly I'm a bit heartbroken that I missed the eyewall. The inner core passed only a few miles N of downtown-- it came really close, as you can see in the video-- but I wasn't quite in it. <sigh> Here's to a neutral ENSO and a recovery of the negative SST anomalies in the MDR! Or, if not, a great season for you in Mexico. Interestingly, I'm going to be spending a good portion of my time in California this summer... I probably wouldn't have the guts to travel in Mexico during a hurricane like you do though! Omg, you're going to be in CA? Where? If you're in SoCal, let's meet for lunch or something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 I've seen Josh mention 1959, an El Nino year with several developments of non-tropical origin and a major Carolina hit (I read the Wiki page), wonder what his other El Nino faves are, beyond the obvious 1992. Speaking of 1992, yes, Hawai'i is a state of islands, but if a high confidence forecast existed for our 50th state, with US infrastructure and all... I was in Orlando, FL at the time, and didn't even know about Alicia, but there is at least one non-tropical development El Nino year barely a major to hit Texas, so the vacation homes of Port of Houston retirees on Galveston island aren't 100% safe this Summer. I still think, even if our regular chaser didn't go, what a Cat 4 or 5 Andrew type storm, especially if it made a daytime landfall, would mean for YouTube videos in a flat state with good road networks and many palm trees to bend in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 lol If it comes with a 3X i-Cyclone t-shirt, I am so all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 You're very sweet. Ha ha, you and me, both! It's the only chase I can remember in which I started to feel spooked as it was approaching, rather than feeling excited and pumped. The hair on the back of my neck was standing up as I looked at each IR image-- the way the storm was looking more and more perfectly organized as it neared the coast. I started to wonder what was going to happen-- would I get out alive?, etc. Years later, honestly I'm a bit heartbroken that I missed the eyewall. The inner core passed only a few miles N of downtown-- it came really close, as you can see in the video-- but I wasn't quite in it. <sigh> Omg, you're going to be in CA? Where? If you're in SoCal, let's meet for lunch or something! I hear ya on the Dean thing. It was amazing to refresh my browser to watch the storm come ashore in real-time, coupled with your reports from the ground. I love the eerie-ness of the sound in the video... Very impressive. I don't think you should feel too bad about missing the core though... IIRC, the immediate area where the strong part of the eyewall crossed was pretty low in population. I wonder if there would have been a suitable structure for shelter. Considering that a category 5 is basically a giant EF-3 tornado, I'd want nothing less that reinforced concrete walls between me and the storm! You did get amazingly close considering it was your first time chasing on foreign turf... Next time you'll be familiar enough with the area to catch the next big Yucatan monster, no problem! I will be in Monterey for 10 weeks for an internship, starting in early June. I know that's not exactly your neck of the woods, but I will be trying to travel as much as possible on weekends to explore the state (I've only been to CA once, when I was 11). So, if our paths cross, I'd definitely love to do lunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I wouldn't get too caught up on the Euro seasonal at this range. While we are expecting a general lack of activity due to higher shear and a transitioning to neutral or weak El Nino pattern, the NATL will no doubt offer a surprise or two and I'd keep an eye on the Gulf this season. The Central/Western Caribbean would be another area to watch as well, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Numbers-wise, it's pretty likely that this will be below the post-1994 average, which of course says next to nothing about landfalling storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Numbers-wise, it's pretty likely that this will be below the post-1994 average, which of course says next to nothing about landfalling storms. True enough, but Euro forecast is slow even in the EastPac, our intrepid i-Cyclone chaser may have to visit the Philippines or India, and I doubt the road network is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Not only will we be dealing with increased shear as a result of a developing El Nino, but SSTs in the tropical Atlantic are below normal, specifically in the eastern Atlantic which will be carried westward. The +NAO configuration intensifies the anticyclonic currents in the Atlantic which pumps colder waters from up around around Spain southward. Also, we're looking at an easterly QBO descending toward the mid-stratosphere, so we're facing increasing easterly shear in the equatorial lower stratosphere. By the thermal wind balance, this results in warmer stratospheric temps off the equator, and lower tropopause heights. So a lot of factors that aren't looking great for this season. 14/7/3 is my call right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I've actually been surprised at how well the Euro seasonal forecasts have verified the last couple seasons, so I give merit to their forecast. I've plotted Jul-Sep MSLP anomalies (scale is -3 mb thru +3 mb) for years from 1980-2011. Best MSLP anomaly distribution analogues are 82, 83, 86, 90, 91, 92, 93 and 94 (none after 94!). I would eliminate 83 and 92 since they were both rapidly weakening Ninos, and toss 90 and 93 as well since they were both fairly steady neutral Ensos. So that would leave 82, 86, 91, and 94 as strengthening Ninos and probably the best analogues for this year, if current Enso forecasts verify. However, none of these years occured since the AMO flip, so maybe I'll look back a bit further when I find some more time. None of these years were at all impressive in the Atlantic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 If anyone can dig up the ECMWF MSLP seasonal forecast from 2010, you'll see that it did a pretty decent job. Same thing with last year. So far 11-13 storms for this year sounds about right. We might get into some trouble with the home grown systems this year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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