HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 We are currently on the longest streak on record without a US landfalling Major. Look for that to change this year. It's actually not the longest on record. As per official NHC records, the 1860s saw an even longer period: 1861-1868. Even so, it sure feels like the longest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I'm just gonna use the tornado data that I messed around with last year to determine MY chances of a LF hurricane next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Hurricane Guy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Haha going WAY back I see It does feel like the longest . All I ask for this year is one good one. I am ready to go pretty much anywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It's actually not the longest on record. As per official NHC records, the 1860s saw an even longer period: 1861-1868. Even so, it sure feels like the longest! This tidbit interested me greatly during previous discussion last season. A few chuckles I had knowing that the our US Civil War was able to proceed unimpeded from the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I've grown to not care too much about seasonal predictions. 1. They're often not terribly accurate. 2. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality systems. 3. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality landfalls. 4. Some of the hawtest landfalls ever have happened in craptastic seasons (i.e., 1977, 1992). 5. There's always the EPAC-- the perpetual insurance policy for crappy NATL seasons. So this hand-wringing over the ENSO state in three months is a big whatevz to me. 1. Absolutely 2. Absolutely 3. Absolutely 4. Absolutely 5. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 This tidbit interested me greatly during previous discussion last season. A few chuckles I had knowing that the our US Civil War was able to proceed unimpeded from the tropics. 1. Absolutely 2. Absolutely 3. Absolutely 4. Absolutely 5. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 The off season is officially half over. We're gettin' there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The off season is officially half over. We're gettin' there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Hawt. Hurricane Wilma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I won't be in FL Jun-Aug this year, so expect above average chances of an early season hurricane landfall in S. FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Hurricane Wilma! Believe it or not, I recognized it by its structure-- the system was large but the core was small and perfect, and the eye was tiny. It had a distinct look at peak intensity. Mega-hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 I won't be in FL Jun-Aug this year, so expect above average chances of an early season hurricane landfall in S. FL. It's very kind of you to vacate like that and allow us greater opportunity for good landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Believe it or not, I recognized it by its structure-- the system was large but the core was small and perfect, and the eye was tiny. It had a distinct look at peak intensity. Mega-hawt. Some of my friends and I used to play a game where we would find a random satellite picture of a storm anywhere in the world (like from GIBBS), crop out the timestamp and lat/long lines, and everybody else tries to guess which storm it was based on its structure and sometimes the land areas it's near. I feel like that would be fun to do here. New thread in the making? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 More Cat 4s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Some of my friends and I used to play a game where we would find a random satellite picture of a storm anywhere in the world (like from GIBBS), crop out the timestamp and lat/long lines, and everybody else tries to guess which storm it was based on its structure and sometimes the land areas it's near. I feel like that would be fun to do here. New thread in the making? Totally! Back on Eastern Wx, someone made a thread exactly like that and it was awesome. Go for it, dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 More Cat 4s! I'm glad they made that little change. Now 115 kt can be correctly rounded to 130 mph, and both values map to Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Totally! Back on Eastern Wx, someone made a thread exactly like that and it was awesome. Go for it, dude! Nice. I made one. I don't know if the two I started with are too random to be fun, but I just wanted to see who has a good memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Verification for 2011 has been posted: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2011.pdf Congrats to the ECMWF and GFS deterministic model runs. The op GFS was actually more skillful than the GFS ensemble. I'm not too surprised, considering how many small, disorgaized systems we had this year, that the GFS ensemble probably had a lot of trouble resolving at lower resolution. Also, while they define the ECMWF ensemble as the EEMN, I saw no mention of it's verification in the report (in a quick run-through). Subjectively, I would say that it performed quite well last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Signs are pointing toward a below to average season. TNA is taking a dip...looks like Cape Verde season will be lame. If ENSO switches to warm, it's very probable that we'll have a below normal season. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 6, 2012 Author Share Posted March 6, 2012 Cool-- so we'll see a 1959 Great Mexico Hurricane redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Actually, there are good possibilities of one of those freakish years where both basins (EPac and Atl) can be below normal...TNA is tanking and -PDO and North Equatorial current are way too cold for the EPac...probably one of the coldest wrt the Mexican coastal SSTs in the last 30years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 Actually, there are good possibilities of one of those freakish years where both basins (EPac and Atl) can be below normal...TNA is tanking and -PDO and North Equatorial current are way too cold for the EPac...probably one of the coldest wrt the Mexican coastal SSTs in the last 30years Or it might be one of those typical years where you misread the signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Actually, there are good possibilities of one of those freakish years where both basins (EPac and Atl) can be below normal...TNA is tanking and -PDO and North Equatorial current are way too cold for the EPac...probably one of the coldest wrt the Mexican coastal SSTs in the last 30years Texas drought cancel. No dry Don... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 http://www.osdpd.noa...t.3.15.2012.gif I am noticing the pacific looks like it has cooled again and looks like a la nina. I also have seen the SOI remain positive for awhile. i saw one person say 2002 is a good analog to this cane season but in 2002 the pacific was much warmer in march and had an el nino look. do you feel an el nino is less likely now and would neutral conditions mean a busy cane season? this is march 2002 http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2002/anomnight.3.18.2002.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 Check out my latest video creation: iCyclone10. It takes you on a mad dash through my last 10 chases in just 6 minutes, showing only a few sexy clips from each cyclone-- sort of like a "greatest hits" piece! Oh, and I slapped a fun intro on it. (It's actually a promo piece for that compilation DVD that's coming out this summer-- I swear it. ) Oh, if you like it, please click Like on YouTube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 (It's actually a promo piece for that compilation DVD that's coming out this summer-- I swear it. ) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 lol Quiet. I'm still sore at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Quiet. I'm still sore at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 That's not gonna work this time. As a start, you can go on YouTube and Like the new video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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