Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part I

[Derecho!]

joe bastardi is tweeting about east coast trouble aug4-8th.

Look forward to tweets a week from now about East coast trouble Aug 10-13, and two weeks from now about August 15-19.

[Riptide]

Look forward to tweets a week from now about East coast trouble Aug 10-13, and two weeks from now about August 15-19.

There are always potential threats this time of year, JB is just restating the obvious.

[Ed Lizard]

There are always potential threats this time of year, JB is just restating the obvious.

Silver lining, GFS does not develop the system the Euro does, at the truncation has it in the Caribbean, where it clearly won't develop. At 240 hours, not too long after the lobotomy, it is a nice looking wave with good RH and a wind shift in the far Western Caribbean and up into the Gulf, and maybe upward motion than will be more favorable for development. See it nicely at 500 mb as well.

So, as the natural optimist, almost win/win, storm near East Coast, although probably a fish (Euro) or a sweet looking wave heading in the general direction of Jorge and Josh chase territory (GFS)

[wxmx]

Silver lining, GFS does not develop the system the Euro does, at the truncation has it in the Caribbean, where it clearly won't develop. At 240 hours, not too long after the lobotomy, it is a nice looking wave with good RH and a wind shift in the far Western Caribbean and up into the Gulf, and maybe upward motion than will be more favorable for development. See it nicely at 500 mb as well.

So, as the natural optimist, almost win/win, storm near East Coast, although probably a fish (Euro) or a sweet looking wave heading in the general direction of Jorge and Josh chase territory (GFS)

MJO wave should be at low amplitude (CoD) for most of the next 2 weeks...models have some resurgence of the wave in favorable phases 1 & 2 by the end of the period, that's past Aug 5th.

The Caribbean has been inhospitable so far this season (as most seasons are in July), with the GoM and tropical Atlantic being a little more benevolent shear wise, though there has been plenty of dry air and loose lapse rates (diminished vertical instability), thanks to SAL and mid/low level heat ridges. Overall shear hasn't been that much of an issue, but the lack of a moist environment and an unfavorable MJO (hence unfavorable/sinking 200 hpa velocity potential anomalies) has precluded any development for July.

[Ed Lizard]

MJO wave should be at low amplitude (CoD) for most of the next 2 weeks...models have some resurgence of the wave in favorable phases 1 & 2 by the end of the period, that's past Aug 5th.

The Caribbean has been inhospitable so far this season (as most seasons are in July), with the GoM and tropical Atlantic being a little more benevolent shear wise, though there has been plenty of dry air and loose lapse rates (diminished vertical instability), thanks to SAL and mid/low level heat ridges. Overall shear hasn't been that much of an issue, but the lack of a moist environment and an unfavorable MJO (hence unfavorable/sinking 200 hpa velocity potential anomalies) has precluded any development for July.

CFS chi looks neutral in 10 days, some of yesterday's Euro ensemble MJO look like they are trying to get into 1 or 2 by then, when as I said the current Eastern Atlantic wave, which doesn't look too shabby, would be approaching the Western Caribbean (approaching the Yucatan into the Gulf) on the 240 hour GFS, which isn't that long after the truncation. Of course nothing develops in Eastern or Central Caribbean w/ 30 knot 850 mb Easterlies this time of year.

joe bastardi is tweeting about east coast trouble aug4-8th.

2 of the 12Z GFS perturbations have sub 1000 mb lows near/approaching the SE/MA US in 11 to 12 days. Euro is much weaker and farther South with previously mentioned wave. Always silver lining optimistic.

Yes, I know.

[carley5]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?∏=splitE&time=

SAL looks a little less widespread. last 30 day SOI is now at +2.4

[Ed Lizard]

Steve posted about this on the local KHOU-TV 11 weather forum. KHOU stands for Houston.

Houston Surprise Hurricane, and Joe Duckworth's Hurricane Hunter Mission.

If you just check the internet on Colonel Duckworth and go to internet sets, besides being the first person to fly into a hurricane, he is actually better known in the USAF as the "father" of instrument flight.

The USAF gives an award in his honor to the pilot who has done the most to advance instrument air or space flight.

The First Flight Into A Hurricane's Eye

(as recalled by Lt. Colonel (retired) Ralph O Hair)

On the morning of July 27th, 1943, British pilots were being trained in the new field of "Instrument" flying at Bryan Field by the lead instructor, Colonel Joe Duckworth. This morning, word was being spread that a hurricane was coming ashore near Galveston and that the planes at the field may have to be flown out for safety. Many of the British pilots were already "Aces" from earlier battles over Europe and felt that they deserved to be trained in the top fighters that the United States had to offer, not this AT-6 "Texan" Trainer. When they heard that the planes may have to be flown away from the storm, they really started gigging the instructors about the frailty of their trainer. The problem was that few, if any European had ever experienced a true hurricane. They thought it was just another big thunderstorm. Finally Colonel Duckworth had enough of the ribbing and whining of these pilots and bet them that he could fly the "Texan" into the storm and back, showing that both the plane and his instrument flying technique was sound. Well the bet was on. A highball to the winner! Colonel Duckworth then looked across the breakfast table at Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair, the only navigator at the field that morning and asked him to fly with him. O'Hair was taken back by the bet but agreed to fly with him, due to the respect he had for Duckworth s skill as a pilot. Since they felt that Headquarters wouldn t approve the flight due to the risk of the aircraft and the crew, they decided to do it without official permission. The main problem that passed through Lt. O'Hair s mind was that if their single engine quit for some reason like being flooded out from the heavy rain, they would be in deep trouble. As they closed on the hurricane which was now ashore, he thought about what it would be like if he had to use the parachute. As they approached the storm at a height of between four thousand to nine thousand feet the air became very turbulent. He described the flight now as like, "being tossed about like a stick in a dog s mouth." The rain was very heavy as the flew through the darkness, fighting the updrafts and downdrafts.

Suddenly they broke into the eye of the storm. This was not the purpose of the flight, but really an accident. The sky was filled with bright clouds and it seemed that they were surrounded by a shower curtain of darker clouds. A they looked down they could see the country side. The storm had indeed moved inland. O'Hair described the shape of the center as like a leaning cone. The lower section dragging a bit behind due to the friction from contact with the land. The eye seemed to be about nine or 10 miles across and they circled inside. As they exited the eye, the dark overcast and heavy rain again pounded them until they made their way out of the storm and back towards Bryan Field. As they arrived back at the field, the weather officer, Lieutenant William Jones-Burdick asked to be flow into the storm, so O'Hair jumped out and the weather officer flew off into the hurricane with Duckworth. After that flight, Bryan Field became a Mecca for Allied pilots wanting to learn the fine art of "Instrument Flying". That night the bet was paid and no more comments were given on the sturdiest of the AT-6 "Texan" trainer. That was also the last flight into a hurricane for Lt. O'Hair.

Col Joseph B. Duckworth Annual USAF Instrument Award. Purpose:

Presented to the unit or individual considered to have made the most significant contribution to the art or science of aerospace instrument flight in the preceding calendar year.

Eligibility:

See AFI 36-2807, Chapter 5.

Type of Award:

Name on permanent trophy in Washington D.C. and plaque.

Presentation:

The commander of the MAJCOM to which the recipient is assigned determines appropriate presentation.

Higher Hqs Directive:

AFI 36-2807.

Who May Nominate:

AMC wings, stand-alone groups, FOAs, and DRUs (or equivalent) may submit one nomination each.

[Ed Lizard]

^^ I wonder if Steve personally remembers that storm.

During the early evening to late night hours the center of the hurricane passed through the City of Houston. The eye was reported over downtown Houston at 11:45 p.m. It was during this period that the anemometer at the Metropolitan Airport registered a gust to 132 mph and had sustained winds of 85 mph for two and a half hours. Minimum pressure recorded was 28.78" (975 mb) at Ellington Field (COE 1972) while a minimum of 28.95" was reported at the airport. Winds at the Weather Bureau office downtown peaked at 56 mph. By early Wednesday morning, July 28, the storm had weakened to a minimal tropical storm and was located northwest of Houston near the town of Navasota.

[Derecho!]

There are always potential threats this time of year, JB is just restating the obvious.

I probably should have been more obvious in my sarcasm.

[icebreaker5221]

^^ I wonder if Steve personally remembers that storm.

Interesting story Ed. 1943 was another one of these per-satellite years where, despite having 10 named storms, nothing was observed east of 55 W. Of course limited ship radio use during WWII exacerbated the issue.

[blazess556]

The Predict Team is tracking the wave currently out in the MDR. They have classified it 07L.

Here is their synopsis.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2012/P07L.html

SYNOPSIS 2012072700

* Still working on GFS computer issues.

P07L

15N, 34W

700 hPa

ECMWF: Distinct pouch all 5 days. Track ends up over Hispaniola.

GFS:

UKMET: Similar to ECMWF. Pouch size and OW areal extent increases for a couple days as the pouch dips southward a little as it moves westward. Then, the size decreases with the later gain in latitude. Ends up just southeast of Hispaniola.

NOGAPS: While NOGAPS killed P07L at 84 hours yesterday, it gets P07L all the way to 120 hours, although the position is uncertain temporarily in today's 84-h forecast. The 120-h position is northeast of Hispaniola, after P07L crosses Puerto Rico.

HWRF-GEN:

ECMWF -9.4 v700/RH/TPW 120h

GFS ---- ---- ---h

UKMET -10.0 v700/RH 120h

NOGAPS -9.3 v700/RH 120h

HWGEN ---- ---- ---h

[Scott747]

The 1935 flight by an American flight instructor based in Cuba was the first technical 'hurricane hunter' flight and was a real mission to locate the labor day storm.

[turtlehurricane]

The 1935 flight by an American flight instructor based in Cuba was the first technical 'hurricane hunter' flight and was a real mission to locate the labor day storm.

Did they find it?

[Scott747]

Did they find it?

Yes. The US weather bureau had said that the storm was just off Cuba but the measurements in Cuba at the time were conflicting. So they asked the flight instructor (for the Cuban air force) to confirm. He found it as it was nearing landfall but remained well away from it. Good decision.....

[carley5]

http://tropic.ssec.w...od=splitE&time=

SAL continues to break up. big wave on coast that the gfs keeps track of.

previous wave has moistened up a bit.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e

[patrick05]

why does the satellite imagery in Eastern Atlantic gets updated every 6 hours while the other sectors have images in roughly every 30 minutes?? i'm talking about NOAA's satellite service btw

[Superstorm93]

why does the satellite imagery in Eastern Atlantic gets updated every 6 hours while the other sectors have images in roughly every 30 minutes?? i'm talking about NOAA's satellite service btw

EUMETSAT will update every 15 minutes on occasion for Africa. Same with Sat24.

NOAA is just stuck in their old ways from the early 2000's.

[Srain]

EUMETSAT will update every 15 minutes on occasion for Africa. Same with Sat24.

NOAA is just stuck in their old ways from the early 2000's.

Pesky facts...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[Superstorm93]

Pesky facts...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

GHCC is probably my RSO site of choice for severe weather. I was just referring to SSD's tropical site.

----

PGI07L looks to be flaring up a bit this evening. One must wonder what it could have done if the SAL wasn't so persistent.

[carley5]

CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012072900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

GFS has a low that runs into south america.

[Superstorm93]

CMC takes whatever is in the MDR, into Florida in about 10 days.

[Srain]

HPC:

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 55W /APPROACHING

THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/ IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CROSSES

SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS COMING SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED

RAIN CHANCES...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN

CARIBBEAN NEXT SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A MORE

SUBSIDENT/UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

[Ed Lizard]

HPC:

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 55W /APPROACHING

THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/ IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CROSSES

SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS COMING SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED

RAIN CHANCES...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN

CARIBBEAN NEXT SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A MORE

SUBSIDENT/UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

Based on the modelling, I'm more enthused about what is coming off Africa. Almost August.

In a perfect world, splits the difference between the GFS and Canadian. They are rather far apart in a week, but both like it to various degrees.

Vis loop is glass 7/16th full optimistic.

[HurricaneJosh]

Still very early in the season to be hoping for Cape Verde action. Anyhoo, none of these waves looks too promising.

I'd like to see something homegrown-- an Alicia or an Anita. I think that's our best best this year. Hoping for some epic long-tracker to make it across the NATL in one piece given what appears to be rather dodgy conditions across the basin just seems like a setup for disappointment.

Of course, it's still only July...

[Ed Lizard]

Still very early in the season to be hoping for Cape Verde action. Anyhoo, none of these waves looks too promising.

I'd like to see something homegrown-- an Alicia or an Anita. I think that's our best best this year. Hoping for some epic long-tracker to make it across the NATL in one piece given what appears to be rather dodgy conditions across the basin just seems like a setup for disappointment.

Of course, it's still only July...

18Z GFS just starting, but it likes same wave 12Z GFS liked so far, and so far, low latitude. Not seeing any suggestions of non-tropical origin anyplace but NAEFS, which I have decided are purely for entertainment purposes.

One thing I don't like at 105 hours is the strong low level flow in the Eastern Caribbean, but I say cross that bridge when we come to it.

Edit to add for Phil's post below:

http://www.kvue.com/news/Remembering-the-1980-tornado-121788579.html

[phil882]

18Z GFS just starting, but it likes same wave 12Z GFS liked so far, and so far, low latitude. Not seeing any suggestions of non-tropical origin anyplace but NAEFS, which I have decided are purely for entertainment purposes.

One thing I don't like at 105 hours is the strong low level flow in the Eastern Caribbean, but I say cross that bridge when we come to it.

Very interesting forecast from the GFS. It stays very far south and spins up into moderate tropical cyclone (TS intensity likely) while avoiding the shear associated with the TUTT poleward of 15N. The system does not get as lucky on the ECMWF though, with the system falling apart as the upper level trough over the Atlantic sags just a bit too far south. Things could certainly get interesting if the storm can hold together when it enters the Caribbean, because there is no strong TUTT in place over the Caribbean and no features are expected to retrograde into this basin.

Speaking of which, the synoptic setup is somewhat similar to the genesis and early track of Allen (1980). I want to present a little preview of what I'll be releasing on my website in the near future. Here is a loop of the genesis and subsequent track of Hurricane Allen starting in late July 1980 through archive GridSat Satellite Imagery. Note that the loop is a bit messy (since satellite data in the early GOES era was quite jumpy and prone to data blackouts that would happen from time to time). Look for more goodies like this in the near future for those interested in investigating previous tropical cyclones that occurred during the satellite era as I add some new features to my site that I've been working on.

http://www.atmos.alb...DSAT/allen.html (let me know if this loop doesn't work or takes a long time to load)

[Ed Lizard]

Very interesting forecast from the GFS. It stays very far south and spins up into moderate tropical cyclone (TS intensity likely) while avoiding the shear associated with the TUTT poleward of 15N. The system does not get as lucky on the ECMWF though, with the system falling apart as the upper level trough over the Atlantic sags just a bit too far south. Things could certainly get interesting if the storm can hold together when it enters the Caribbean, because there is no strong TUTT in place over the Caribbean and no features are expected to retrograde into this basin.

Speaking of which, the synoptic setup is somewhat similar to the genesis and early track of Allen (1980). I want to present a little preview of what I'll be releasing on my website in the near future. Here is a loop of the genesis and subsequent track of Hurricane Allen starting in late July 1980 through archive GridSat Satellite Imagery. Note that the loop is a bit messy (since satellite data in the early GOES era was quite jumpy and prone to data blackouts that would happen from time to time). Look for more goodies like this in the near future for those interested in investigating previous tropical cyclones that occurred during the satellite era as I add some new features to my site that I've been working on.

http://www.atmos.alb...DSAT/allen.html (let me know if this loop doesn't work or takes a long time to load)

Just watched the loop, and was thinking, would the i-Cyclone team have been happy about a major on the border, or disgusted about how badly it fell apart just before landfall? I appreciate the positive vibes of mentioning Hurricane Allen.

[Srain]

Sacrificial wave. Give it another week or two…

[wxmx]

I'm liking the cyclone shown in the CMC/Euro/GFS to become the first cyclone of true tropical origins this season. It will be reaching the Caribbean next weekend. Finally, something to keep an eye on.

[Superstorm93]

The wave that the models are developing is in the MDR, behind the sacrificial wave. Seems to be forming an area of low pressure due to the eastern leg of the inverted "V" signature from the first wave. NHC has this down to 1009 mbs already, and 850 mb vort looks semi-decent for being in the MDR. I could see how the NHC recognizes this within 48 hours.

850mb vort:

18z GFS is the strongest run yet, but has some wicked winds in the Caribbean while it's passing through. Not too confident in this one becoming anything significant for two strong reasons. First off, the environment isn't great to begin with and wont be getting better as this progresses into the Caribbean. Second, the GFS has a track over a majority of the Greater Antilles.

Midget storm in the SE Caribbean.