wxmx Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 People scoff at the NAM and Canadian as tropical guidance, but I specifically remember they were the first to pick up on Edouard, and neither is pocking up on whatever is in the Gulf. NAM is picking up something toward the end of the run that doesn't close a surface low coming from the Southeast, but unrelated to this. Not a model hugger, but I'd like to see 1 model onboard. The convection blow up approaching the FL straits this morning. It's associated with what appears to be a TW currently in the area. There might be some organization as it moves WNW to NW towards the N or NE GoM, but upper level conditions remain marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 The convection blow up approaching the FL straits this morning. It's associated with what appears to be a TW currently in the area. There might be some organization as it moves WNW to NW towards the N or NE GoM, but upper level conditions remain marginal It has a lemon. ABNT20 KNHC 221439 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEA N SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS FLORIDA...AND DOPPLER WEATHER DATA INDICATE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICA L CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Very vigorous wave about to pass through the Florida straights. Could become an invest if a low can consolidate at the mid-levels in the next 48 hours. Looks pretty interesting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 It has a lemon. ABNT20 KNHC 221439 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEA N SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS FLORIDA...AND DOPPLER WEATHER DATA INDICATE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICA L CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Latest CIMSS analyses have well-defined upper-level divergence, but an elongated, poorly-defined vorticity maximum. Kinda what you'd expect from a tropical MCS with low chances of development. Latest GFS and ECMWF appear to track the majority of the parent vorticity into the FL panhandle, which would certainly bring about an end to this wave. If the wave stays further south than guidance suggests, then we might at least have a chance at development. Moisture is not an issue: PWs are > 3 sigma above climo per 6Z GFS ensembles. Inhospitable shear tends to be confined to the W Gulf at the moment. So I wouldn't completely rule out a chance of development, but this system has a ways to go in terms of structure and building the vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Very vigorous wave about to pass through the Florida straights. Could become an invest if a low can consolidate at the mid-levels in the next 48 hours. Looks pretty interesting now. Miami area radar is lighting up like a Xmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Very vigorous wave about to pass through the Florida straights. Could become an invest if a low can consolidate at the mid-levels in the next 48 hours. Looks pretty interesting now. In my amateur opinion, 10 to 20% sounds right. Not much low level vorticity per CIMMS analysis, shear gets lighter further West, but low and low-mid steering suggests it stays close to Florida as it tracks Northwest. Side note, while seeing where GFS takes the 700 mb moisture with this and whether it closes a low, I note through 6 days GFS is tracking a decent looking wave into the meat of the MDR. 250 mb winds look not particularly hostile near the wave at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Latest CIMSS analyses have well-defined upper-level divergence, but an elongated, poorly-defined vorticity maximum. Kinda what you'd expect from a tropical MCS with low chances of development. Latest GFS and ECMWF appear to track the majority of the parent vorticity into the FL panhandle, which would certainly bring about an end to this wave. If the wave stays further south than guidance suggests, then we might at least have a chance at development. Moisture is not an issue: PWs are > 3 sigma above climo per 6Z GFS ensembles. Inhospitable shear tends to be confined to the W Gulf at the moment. So I wouldn't completely rule out a chance of development, but this system has a ways to go in terms of structure and building the vortex. Convection is not as strong as before, and the area with maximum vorticity has little cloud coverage, but the previous convection blowup helped define the area of vorticity, with a rather well defined maxima around 700mb, as shown by CIMSS analyses, 850mb is still elongated but better defined. It's currently underneath a small anticyclone, but it's moving toward an area with low shear. Mixed feelings about it. Strong convection activity next few hours could mean further organization and better chances to squeeze a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 12z GFS takes this wave and another impressive wave after it and attempts to develop both. Interesting change of pace from the previous runs. Should hopefully give at least an invest or pouch to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 12z GFS takes this wave and another impressive wave after it and attempts to develop both. Interesting change of pace from the previous runs. Should hopefully give at least an invest or pouch to track. Looking at the GFS 5 day forecast for system number 1, the pouch manages to take the path of least resistance, avoiding the worst westerly shear to the north and easterly shear to the south. Dry air entrainment could be an issue on the north side of the system, although the pouch appears to be somewhat moist. Velocity potential does not look particularly favorable per Mike Ventrice's page. My guess right now is completely fizzled out within 48 hrs at worst, or something similar to Gaston 2010 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 12z ECMWF is pretty interesting as well. Takes the current wave over W-Africa and brings it across the whole CATL with minimal development. Then proceeds to develop it just north of the Islands at the end of the run. FWIW...nice trof over the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looking at the GFS 5 day forecast for system number 1, the pouch manages to take the path of least resistance, avoiding the worst westerly shear to the north and easterly shear to the south. Dry air entrainment could be an issue on the north side of the system, although the pouch appears to be somewhat moist. Velocity potential does not look particularly favorable per Mike Ventrice's page. My guess right now is completely fizzled out within 48 hrs at worst, or something similar to Gaston 2010 at best. That's a very narrow range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 That's a very narrow range Even though it's starting to pick up model support, it's just coming off Africa now, so it can easily go "poof". On the other hand, Gaston was a very crappy, short-lived system, so that upper-bound is still pretty low. So even though you're being facetious, it's not like I said it could either dissipate in 48 hrs or be a cat 5 Caribbean cruiser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 12z ECMWF is pretty interesting as well. Takes the current wave over W-Africa and brings it across the whole CATL with minimal development. Then proceeds to develop it just north of the Islands at the end of the run. FWIW...nice trof over the coast. Sad news there, for East Coast action fans, is the NAEFS and ensemble means keep a trough near the East Coast through two weeks, and its probably early for any negative tilt trough action. Glass 7/65th full, some of the individual GFS ensemble members out around Day 10 are flatter and further West with the trough, which holds out at least slim hope for either something sneaking through to Florida or coming close enough to Cape Cod for a wave watching party. GFS ensemble means, however, if it develops at all, its a fish. But a lot can change in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 12z ECMWF is pretty interesting as well. Takes the current wave over W-Africa and brings it across the whole CATL with minimal development. Then proceeds to develop it just north of the Islands at the end of the run. FWIW...nice trof over the coast. Yep..its been the norm the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Even though it's starting to pick up model support, it's just coming off Africa now, so it can easily go "poof". On the other hand, Gaston was a very crappy, short-lived system, so that upper-bound is still pretty low. So even though you're being facetious, it's not like I said it could either dissipate in 48 hrs or be a cat 5 Caribbean cruiser. Actually I was mocking Gaston...fizzling or being one of the crappiest/short lived TS in the last few years is indeed a very narrow range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I need a ATL TC. I'm bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Actually I was mocking Gaston...fizzling or being one of the crappiest/short lived TS in the last few years is indeed a very narrow range. Oh ok, we were on the same page the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Generalities, not specifics, as we get into August, some modelling, (thinking GFS ensembles) starting to see TCs. Nothing particular to hang a hat on, but the trend is positive. Last week run after run of the GFS ensembles, not a single perturbation would spit out even a closed 1008 mb low. Not to mention two consecutive runs of Euro hinting at a Fish called Ernesto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 WRT the 00z ECMWF, this wave is easily trackable across the whole MDR for the next week or so until it develops rather far north of the islands (and ultimately heads for the fishes as a small system) Wish I could post the AccuWx version, because the amount of 850 vort is actually kinda impressive as it makes it's journey over the next few days. Might see some kind of shading of this one over the next few days. EDIT: The 00z GFS has a trackable system in the long range FWIW Easily identifiable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 UKMET has a nice track for P07L (African wave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e subtropical development around 35n, 58w? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 ^^ A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT COULD STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS BEFORE IT REACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 ^^ A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT COULD STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS BEFORE IT REACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. Might get a bumb in the next TWO, but the phase digrams look pretty unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Hi all, It appears the current intraseasonal state in the tropics shall remain unfavorable for any Atlantic hurricanes through early August. My real-time multivariate MJO indices suggests that the active convection associated with the MJO is currently located over the Maritime/Western Pacific sector. This is consistent with a time when conditions over the Atlantic are unfavorable for the genesis of tropical cyclones. My last prediction on July 16 was for a lack of TC activity through August 2, with an uptick in tropical cyclone activity between August 3-13. This forecast is based off the location of active convection associated with a strong eastward propagating convectively-coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave which is currently at the longitude of the Indian Basin. The superposition between this CCKW and the active convection of the MJO suggests that we might see an amplification of the RMM PCs into RMM phase 6 later this week, with counterclockwise through the western Hemisphere. Of course... this remains to be seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Thanks for the update Mike. Always love that MJO analysis that you provide! I would be much more inlcined to believe EATL/CATL development IF we had at least some MJO support. Everything is pretty much "model fantasy" at this point. Vertical instability is still below-average for the TA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Way too much SAL for any chance of development within the MDR at this time. Check back in a couple of weeks after a couple of more waves roll off Africa and perhaps moisten things up abit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 ^^ Yeah, but we still may have to watch these next few systems. They have the potential to become "sleeper waves" and develop further down the road. Such a waste of a strong AEW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 ^^ Yeah, but we still may have to watch these next few systems. They have the potential to become "sleeper waves" and develop further down the road. Such a waste of a strong AEW. Sleepers are a good thing, judging from Euro ensemble 500 mb heights, which suggests Day 9 and Day 10 the East Coast trough might retrograde back a bit West. Nothing will be able to hit Florida if it is already near/North of the Antilles at Day 10 if the Euro ensembles are right, but would perhaps be a Florida threat if they can stay undeveloped and at a lower latitude. Just looking for the silver lining possibilities that could take a potential fish, if it develops right away, and get it to Florida or the SE Coast by virtue of later development. ETA: The later=better is generalizing, of course, a system that passes the Lesser Antilles and then gets torn apart crossing Hispaniola trying to get to Florida, doesn't do anyone any good, but 10 days out, dealing in generalities. ETA II - Looking at Gulf satellite, the old Florida lemon, while not super impressive, is still off the Panhandle. Also mildly nervous about the lemon ruining my 0/0/0 for July. Looks frontal on the satellite, but for a frontal low, doesn't look terrible. If it completely occludes and has decent storm action, hard to predict if someone will slap a name on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Im terribly sorry for this Josh. Another non-tropical fish. (Does look good though...) BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al982012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201207241720 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012072418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012 AL, 98, 2012072406, , BEST, 0, 350N, 560W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012072412, , BEST, 0, 355N, 555W, 35, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012072418, , BEST, 0, 360N, 550W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 30, 40, 40, 1013, 100, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Darn, 35 knots, very nervous it'll waste Ernesto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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