phil882 Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Once decent looking AEW in a sea of unfavorable conditions (for now) That most recent wave that has just emerged off the African coast will have to be watched in the next 24-72 hours. Some of the models hold on to it several days after passing the Cape Verdes with a distinct low level circulation and mid-level vorticity signal indicating some vertical coherence. Could be the first legitimate AEW to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Impressive low-level spin on this one, but the amount of dry air over the CV islands (left) is really discouraging for significant development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 GFS and ensemble spaghetti remain the dog that doesn't bite. 6Z GFS does, right at two weeks, kick a weak low off Africa but at advanced latitude. NAEFS from NCEP site spread seems to indicate one or two of the Canadian members of that ensemble develop something in the Bay of Campeche and hit Tamaulipas in 9 days, but that is silver lining stuff, not anything I would expect to happen. GFS in fanatsy range and ensembles now gets to the end of July. Halfway through July, and July is supposed to be slow, no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Any hope for the TUTT related slop near Jacksonville spinning up into something or is that just a total grasping of straws at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Lameness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Lameness. Indeed, the tropics are lame...good thing is that this season the subtropics have stepped up, and the 12z GFS depicts a rotten frontal system leaving some energy behind just off the coast of the Carolinas, slowly moving to the ENE while strengthening some. That's for early next week. Joy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Indeed, the tropics are lame...good thing is that this season the subtropics have stepped up, and the 12z GFS depicts a rotten frontal system leaving some energy behind just off the coast of the Carolinas, slowly moving to the ENE while strengthening some. That's for early next week. Joy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Indeed, the tropics are lame...good thing is that this season the subtropics have stepped up, and the 12z GFS depicts a rotten frontal system leaving some energy behind just off the coast of the Carolinas, slowly moving to the ENE while strengthening some. That's for early next week. Joy! Can't even get a chinacane to break the monotony. Just EPAC fish storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Its July. It is supposed to be dull. I want it to be dull, I'm 0 named storms, and a couple of models are threatening to ruin it with subtropical garbage Ernesto off the East Coast. I'm just hoping Florence is big, thinking of doing an avatar change to Mrs. Brady if a Cat 4 Florence is bearing down on Florida next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Can't even get a chinacane to break the monotony. Just EPAC fish storms. What is up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 What is up with that? MJO FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 MJO FTL This pattern in the western hemisphere has completely sucked for the 99% of the past 12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 ECMWF Montly Control run, which goes out to 762 hours has the Atlantic absolutely dead into mid-August. Probably won't verify do to the extremely long-durantion forecast and the inability to handle systems that do not originate in the deep tropics. Still thinking that we could start to see some MDR action near the end of July into early August if the SAL can take a break. Still an interetsing forecast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 ECMWF Montly Control run, which goes out to 762 hours has the Atlantic absolutely dead into mid-August. Probably won't verify do to the extremely long-durantion forecast and the inability to handle systems that do not originate in the deep tropics. Still thinking that we could start to see some MDR action near the end of July into early August if the SAL can take a break. Still an interetsing forecast though. Is that free anywhere? A 1997 redux would make me the tropical forecast constest winner, but that is a consolation prize if Florida doesn't get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Is that free anywhere? A 1997 redux would make me the tropical forecast constest winner, but that is a consolation prize if Florida doesn't get hit. That would be absolutely brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 CFS Chi is glass 3/132 optimistic the next six weeks as far as chi forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Oof.. The Atlantic has no "Mojo" according to the CFS. I'll see what kind of progression the ECMWF has when I get home from work. At least there might be some action with the WPAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Pour that lameness on... lolwut (We're not even on 91L yet...this is supposed to be 98L) BEGIN HPC_ATCF invest_al912012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201207171807 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012 AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Pour that lamness on... lolwut (We're not even on 91L yet...this is supposed to be 98L) BEGIN HPC_ATCF invest_al912012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201207171807 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012 AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Bored, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 why did they give that an invest? It doesn't appear to have much chance for development as it heads into colder and colder water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Not liking the CPC's 2wk depiction. A dry Guinea is a dry Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 What a lame invest. I refuse to even change the thread title for it. Anyhoo, I reminded myself today: it's only 17 July! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 No wub from Albany either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Glass 5/132nd optimism alert. It appears one of the Canadian members of the NAEFS, judging from the spread, hits the Central Louisiana Coast South of LFT on July 26th. And a single perturbation of the 0Z GFS spaghetti just missed New England with a 1008 mb "storm". Still pretty lame, but I think we can go from 3/132 full to 5/132 glass full full optimistic. And the potential name wasting invest looks bad this morning, preserving Ernesto and Florence for real storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 That most recent wave that has just emerged off the African coast will have to be watched in the next 24-72 hours. Some of the models hold on to it several days after passing the Cape Verdes with a distinct low level circulation and mid-level vorticity signal indicating some vertical coherence. Could be the first legitimate AEW to watch. It's right now around 11N 33W ...it looks ok, some easterly shear, decent convection, still attached to the ITCZ, but models are unenthused about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 It's right now around 11N 33W ...it looks ok, some easterly shear, decent convection, still attached to the ITCZ, but models are unenthused about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I sure hope that wave brought lots of moisturizer in its toiletry bag for its trip across the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 About SAL maps and CPC forecasts of a dry Africa. Gray (and later Klotzbach and Gray) dropped it as one of the factors used in seasonal activity forecasting, with the beginning of the warm AMO it seemed to have a weaker correlation, but I do remember when Gray used Sahel rainfall as one of the factors in developing seasonal forecasts, and it had pretty good hindcast skill. Obviously there has to be a relationship between abnormally dry weather in sub-Saharan Africa and SAL, even if pressure relationships and the strength of the low level Easterlies off Africa also play a role in the SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 If I had my way, we'd pave over all of N Africa with asphalt. That or turn it into a manmade rainforest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 About SAL maps and CPC forecasts of a dry Africa. Gray (and later Klotzbach and Gray) dropped it as one of the factors used in seasonal activity forecasting, with the beginning of the warm AMO it seemed to have a weaker correlation, but I do remember when Gray used Sahel rainfall as one of the factors in developing seasonal forecasts, and it had pretty good hindcast skill. Obviously there has to be a relationship between abnormally dry weather in sub-Saharan Africa and SAL, even if pressure relationships and the strength of the low level Easterlies off Africa also play a role in the SAL. There's been a lot of statistical work on Sahel rainfall and seasonal Atlantic activity. There is no correlation when the AMO is positive and high correlation when the AMO is negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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