phil882 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Also, in memoriam given the topic at hand... I'm pretty much about as optimistic as rainstorm for the remainder of this year's forecast in the Atlantic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 you make a mean pillow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 I'm pretty much about as optimistic as rainstorm for the remainder of this year's forecast in the Atlantic basin. Anybody know when the July ECMWF seasonals go up? The June JAS and ASO would imply Josh should rent a place on Southern Luzon. The Chinacane thread should be rocking per the June Euro seasonals. No invests there checking NRL site. Camarines Norte, Republic of the Philippines. Clean water, white sand beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Not even a 0% lemon from NHC, nor do models seem to suggest anything, but the Hurricane Authority is watching the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Monsoon trough is rather active between 25W and 45W, with at least 2-3 distinct lows embedded within (1 looks to have broken free, the one I mentioned a few posts back). NW to Nerly shear and some SAL are hindering convection though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Interesting feature off the Florida coast this morning. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Interesting feature off the Florida coast this morning. http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no Very weak mid level rotation per radar loop. Also, there seems to be some low level turning per visible imagery. The only place in the tropics where there's a small chance for something to develop is the E GoM right now, as the rest of the basin is shear laden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 NHC might decide to slap a nice 0% on that TUTT-enhanced batch of showers, but outside of that area... Things look very quiet for a nice long while in the "King TUTT" ruled Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Well, more from my usual natural glass full optimism than actually believing it, it'd appear we are 3 days away from a sub-tropical depression off Delaware, per 12Z CMC. 1014 mb, probably not what Josh wants. BTW, I remember another developing Nino year and a non-tropical system making it to the Gulf, and Danny in 1997 was a solid Cat 1 at landfall. GFS sort of kind/of/almost onboard w/ yesterday's CMC sub-tropical depression off the MA/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Man, this pattern has been largely horrible. Only real interesting thing over the past several weeks was the OV/Del Marva derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Man, this pattern has been largely horrible. Only real interesting thing over the past several weeks was the OV/Del Marva derecho. No horrible would be if we had POS tropical storms developing every other day and 20 page threads on them. July is a zero hurricane month in most good seasons except 2005. Let the TCHP build and get the unfavorble pattern out of the way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 I'm feeling a little safer in my July 0/0/0 picks and 10-11 overall named storms. Probably should have hedged like 0.5/0.25/0, but no guts, no glory. Sort of reassuring, getting excited over GFS post truncation fantasy canes is silly, but the post resolution fantasy canes are the dog that isn't barking. Ditto ensemble spaghetti. They bite on the East Pac, but not the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 ZZZZZZZZZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 ZZZZZZZZZ I know, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 I know, right? Western Gulf will be rockin' come late August/early September....book it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Hi all, So I've been playing around with some of my realt-time filtered data scripts. I have created new x-y plots of Kelvin filtered, MJO filtered, and Equatorial Rossby wave filtered 200 hPa Velocity Potential (VP200) anomaly plots. To see all these plots, just follow my Tropical Waves link and scroll down to the X-Y plots. For example, below is an x-y plot centered about the tropical Atlantic. The forecast is provided by simple linear extrapolation of the filtered fields, so there will be errors in the timing and amplitude of anomalies. That being said, it appears that the Atlantic is under the suppression from the convectively-suppressed MJO phase. There is the convectively active phase of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave passing over the Atlantic, however the net forcing shows that the MJO is controlling the large-scale environment. The forecast shows the active phase of the MJO to be over the Atlantic during the last week of July-early August. I wouldn't place bets on no TCs for July just quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Remember guys, even the 2004 season didn't have a thing until July 31st when Alex began spinning up over the Bahamas. Within a month, we had South Florida recovering from a 150 mph landfall, South Carolina mopping up after Hurricane Gaston and a Category 4 named Frances aiming at the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Blob watching, the ULL near 25ºN and 60ºW is gaining thunderstorms. No obvious reflection looking at CIMSS below 500 mb. Being under an upper low, shear is pretty reasonable. Long shot, certainly, but what else are we going to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Another interesting feature over Florida currently. Nice little smalle scale vortex... likely partially generated from the MCS just SE of Florida yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Hi all, So I've been playing around with some of my realt-time filtered data scripts. I have created new x-y plots of Kelvin filtered, MJO filtered, and Equatorial Rossby wave filtered 200 hPa Velocity Potential (VP200) anomaly plots. To see all these plots, just follow my Tropical Waves link and scroll down to the X-Y plots. For example, below is an x-y plot centered about the tropical Atlantic. The forecast is provided by simple linear extrapolation of the filtered fields, so there will be errors in the timing and amplitude of anomalies. That being said, it appears that the Atlantic is under the suppression from the convectively-suppressed MJO phase. There is the convectively active phase of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave passing over the Atlantic, however the net forcing shows that the MJO is controlling the large-scale environment. The forecast shows the active phase of the MJO to be over the Atlantic during the last week of July-early August. I wouldn't place bets on no TCs for July just quite yet. Mike I have been watching the CCKW you have been talking about in your TRMM precipitation and GFS 200-hPa wind map and it seems to have stalled. I'll admit I don't know much about CCKW's could you share your thoughts on what slowed and appears to have stalled it's eastward propagation over the Atlantic...is it the CCKW's interaction with the suppression from the convectively-suppressed MJO phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Blob watching, the ULL near 25ºN and 60ºW is gaining thunderstorms. No obvious reflection looking at CIMSS below 500 mb. Being under an upper low, shear is pretty reasonable. Long shot, certainly, but what else are we going to watch. This ULL lost a lot of convection today, but i noticed another ULL in the gulf located around 87 W and 23 N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Has it really gotten to the point where people are ULL watching?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Has it really gotten to the point where people are ULL watching?! I'm sorry, I'm sorry! I'm just so bored watching the tropics in the Atlantic that I have to take anything that i can get! I wouldn't post stuff on ULL's if it makes people mad!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Another interesting feature over Florida currently. Nice little smalle scale vortex... likely partially generated from the MCS just SE of Florida yesterday. Low south of Apalachicola...good low level vorticity, decent upper level environment...but no time due to being too close to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 There is some hope towards the end of this unfavorable pattern... by day 3 the GFS has widespread upper level easterly flow across the East Atlantic, and a budding cyclonic disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands. While the GFS doesn't develop it further, the pattern is expected to become substantially more favorable for genesis towards the end of July as the upper level ridge finally extends farther to the west expanding into the Caribbean as the TUTT retrogrades northwestward. For the full loop go here which you can access from Kyle Griffin's Webpage. We can identify the height of the tropopause by finding the place where potential vorticity starts to rapidly increase (which occurs in the Stratosphere). Using the 2 Potential Vorticity Unit (2 PVU) surface helps us objectively identify where the troposphere ends and where the stratosphere begins. The wind vectors on this map are also at the tropopause using the same methodology. You can identify what pressure level the tropopause is located by the color scale on the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 There is some hope towards the end of this unfavorable pattern... by day 3 the GFS has widespread upper level easterly flow across the East Atlantic, and a budding cyclonic disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands. While the GFS doesn't develop it further, the pattern is expected to become substantially more favorable for genesis towards the end of July as the upper level ridge finally extends farther to the west expanding into the Caribbean as the TUTT retrogrades northwestward. For the full loop go here which you can access from Kyle Griffin's Webpage. We can identify the height of the tropopause by finding the place where potential vorticity starts to rapidly increase (which occurs in the Stratosphere). Using the 2 Potential Vorticity Unit (2 PVU) surface helps us objectively identify where the troposphere ends and where the stratosphere begins. The wind vectors on this map are also at the tropopause using the same methodology. You can identify what pressure level the tropopause is located by the color scale on the bottom. Yep, I agree with you Phil (and Mike Ventrice)...the last 10 days of July look a lot better for tropical prospects than the current dreadful pattern. It also teleconnects well with tropical pacific forcing and the passage of a possible CCKW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 I personally think that we won't get something of real interest until the first week of August, but next week could have a chance if the Upper low pattern relaxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 I personally think that we won't get something of real interest until the first week of August, but next week could have a chance if the Upper low pattern relaxes Between the GFS and ensemble spaghetti still remaining as the dog that isn't barking the next two weeks, and the CFS not coming back around until August, I am still feeling fairly confident on my 0 storms in July forecast. And with the warm ENSO doing a two steps forward, one step back progression, I think we'll probably have at least a couple of systems of interest in August to follow. In my amateur opinion. Canadian does try to spin something up approaching the Lesser Antilles next week, but as would be expected w/ 20 to 30 knot low level easterlies, it doesn't get it done. Based on CIMSS analysis of shear and divergence/convergence, I'd be nervous on the Central Gulf blob wasting "Ernesto", But it looks too linear and has no model support and will probably be moving onshore before it could try to organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Once decent looking AEW in a sea of unfavorable conditions (for now) ITCZ has gotten a chance to move north quite a bit when looking at the TPW placement and anomalies. Might be able to squeeze something out of this pattern by late July if things can moisten up a bit. TPW Anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 In July 1936 which had the similar heat wave, there were three storms in June, then two more in late July which both affected the eastern and central Gulf (one started in the Bahamas, one near nw Cuba). These both began around July 25-26. So this quiet interval during the large height anomaly episode could easily break down and lead to a large season ... 1936 without satellites and marginal TS reached 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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