Srain Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Meh. I wouldn't not worry too much regarding the upcoming season on February 21st. Quality over quantity. I strongly suspect we won't see a Don type storm 'dry up' this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Meh. I wouldn't not worry too much regarding the upcoming season on February 21st. Quality over quantity. I strongly suspect we won't see a Don type storm 'dry up' this season... One decent Charley storm into the U-Tube paradise of Florida, flat, good roads, palm trees, and one solid hurricane (doesn't even need to be a major) landfalling 50 miles either side of NYC, and I'll call it a success. I'd like one solid high end tropical storm locally, one that won't damage Summer homes, but provide action on Steve's KHOU-TV 11 weather forum, and maybe provide an excuse to miss work, but if it doesn't happen, I'll be ok. I'll be ok with just a Florida major or a NYC anycane, but obviously, both would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 monthly AMO is actually negative at the moment. Obviously that doesn't mean all that much since it has been negative during the early spring in 4 separate years in the 1995-Present regime. I don't have high hopes for a mariad of activity either, but I still hope we can get a couple nice majors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 monthly AMO is actually negative at the moment. Obviously that doesn't mean all that much since it has been negative during the early spring in 4 separate years in the 1995-Present regime. I don't have high hopes for a mariad of activity either, but I still hope we can get a couple nice majors. You're going to be back in the BM for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You're going to be back in the BM for the season? yep...should be heading back to Bermuda March 14th. Signed a 2 year contract with Bermuda Weather Service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Here is the forecast june/august predicting well above pressures just about basin wide. (Not pretty) Just takes one as always. Just for comparison purposes here is what it forcasted last season at peak around the same time frame. Uh... you do realize you just compared a June-July-August time period to a September-October-November one, right? That's not comparable... at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Pacific_hurricane_season I was looking at the thread and i noticed the much higher than normal pressures in the eastern pacific last season, yet that season featured 10 hurricanes and 6 majors. the atlantic had a whole lot of sheared messes the last 2 years. i would be happy to have last seasons east pac season in the atlantic this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Inactive compared to 1995-2011 and slightly inactive compared to 1982-2011 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/hyhufs Not surprising, considering their ENSO seasonal outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Not surprising, considering their ENSO seasonal outlook Glass half full, I'll always think 2004 when weak warm ENSOs are predicted. That GFDL would be ugly, but thankfully, appears to be an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Glass half full, I'll always think 2004 when weak warm ENSOs are predicted. That GFDL would be ugly, but thankfully, appears to be an outlier. Please remember *when* the El Nino developed in 2004. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Informative graphic from Jeff Masters on wunderground. According to this chart, neutral enso years feature the most active hurricane seasons on average. Something to keep in mind...the sample period is small though but relates to the current era of climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 LOL. What terrible misuse of statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Please remember *when* the El Nino developed in 2004. Thanks. Your dislike of me and need to post face palms aside, please use your vastly greater knowledge to tell me why it matters, if the ENSO was positive during the season peak, why it matters whether it was already established or developing. Besides annoyance at the never ending face palms, I'm actually curious as to whether the change of ENSO with time is a factor of importance of the same order of magnitude as the value of the ENSO. I assume you'd know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 LOL. What terrible misuse of statistics. Masters has a doctorate in "pollution meteorology". Before that, he was HRD and flew into Gilbert. And I did Wunderground years before I heard of AmWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Masters has a doctorate in "pollution meteorology". Before that, he was HRD and flew into Gilbert Hugo. And I did Wunderground years before I heard of AmWx. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 FYP Merci beaucoup. It was Willoughby in Gilbert on that NOVA they should re-run monthly as a public service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The way the past few seasons have gone with most storms recurving away from the US i've just about lost hope for any action near home. Maybe we'll get a repeat of 2004 with those once in lifetime favorable steering. Just pure luck the way i see it in terms of were the long wave position is when a TC makes a run at united states. As others have mentioned even if el nino developes which again seems pretty likely in my opinion we can still see considerable development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The way the past few seasons have gone with most storms recurving away from the US i've just about lost hope for any action near home. Maybe we'll get a repeat of 2004 with those once in lifetime favorable steering. Just pure luck the way i see it in terms of were the long wave position is when a TC makes a run at united states. As others have mentioned even if el nino developes which again seems pretty likely in my opinion we can still see considerable development. Dade County (along with Palm Beach, Collier and Monroe Counties) has the highest return period for major hurricanes in the entire country, but it's still only once every ten years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Masters has a doctorate in "pollution meteorology". Before that, he was HRD and flew into Gilbert. And I did Wunderground years before I heard of AmWx. What does any of that have to do with his poor use of statistics here? In order to find the expected value of numbers in a neutral year, you should either throw out the outlier or take the median. A straight arithmetic mean is not robust to outliers and certainly not with a sample size of 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 FWIW, taking out the high/low outliers in each data set gives you a mean (not a sample size that one can take to the bank since it's just three years in each bucket) of: Nina: 14.7, 8, 2.7 Nada: 15.7, 8, 4 Nino: 10.3, 4, 2 '05 really skews the data big time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 From CPC's weekly update.. Climate Prediction Center 2/21/12 Weekly update All the ENSO regions warmed sustancially with Nino 3.4 up to -0.6C,warmer than the -1.0C that last week's update brought. In fact,Nino 1-2 close to South America is now in positive territory (+0.9C) This shows how La Nina is fading fast and Neutral ENSO will come in short order. The big question is if is going to warm even more and more to jump towards El Nino in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 There are usually less landfalls during a warm ENSO period, but FL is generally the less affected region (especially during weak warm phases), while in the GOM and the rest of the East coast there's a sharp decline in landfalling hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 I've grown to not care too much about seasonal predictions. 1. They're often not terribly accurate. 2. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality systems. 3. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality landfalls. 4. Some of the hawtest landfalls ever have happened in craptastic seasons (i.e., 1977, 1992). 5. There's always the EPAC-- the perpetual insurance policy for crappy NATL seasons. So this hand-wringing over the ENSO state in three months is a big whatevz to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Ok everybody, pack up and leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Ok everybody, pack up and leave. Actually, one should derive the opposite conclusion from my post: even if the signals are negative, it's nothing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Actually, one should derive the opposite conclusion from my post: even if the signals are negative, it's nothing to worry about. That was not the conclusion. Conclusion was, you have talked, discussions about Seasonal forecasts/ENSO are over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 That was not the conclusion. Conclusion was, you have talked, discussions about Seasonal forecasts/ENSO are over. There was no conclusion, only an open-ended opinion. Whatevz city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 That was not the conclusion. Conclusion was, you have talked, discussions about Seasonal forecasts/ENSO are over. I said it's a big whatevz to me. I didn't presume to speak for others. There was no conclusion, only an open-ended opinion. Whatevz city. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I've grown to not care too much about seasonal predictions. 1. They're often not terribly accurate. 2. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality systems. 3. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality landfalls. 4. Some of the hawtest landfalls ever have happened in craptastic seasons (i.e., 1977, 1992). 5. There's always the EPAC-- the perpetual insurance policy for crappy NATL seasons. So this hand-wringing over the ENSO state in three months is a big whatevz to me. k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Hurricane Guy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 We are currently on the longest streak on record without a US landfalling Major. Look for that to change this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.