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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part I


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Running out of time, and from what I can tell, the most obvious vorticity in low cloud elements is East of most of the convection, implying Easterly shear, but I'm still mildy surprised it isn't at least a 20%, despite lack of model support.

Home made NASA visible loop.

Sire, they hear your words of wisdom. 20% development chances in the next 48 hours.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS TODAY...

ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO

OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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The Central Atlantic disturbance has improved a bit overnight as some deep convection has fired within the wave. SAL still remains an issue, but if convection can maintain, our lemon could increase to at least 20% as it moves closer to the Caribbean Islands this weekend.

post-32-0-88687600-1340994486_thumb.jpg

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Bastardi noted on Twitter Western Gulf convection flaring nicely, but will run out of ocean. Main rains South of my lawn, so far, but I did get (based on HGX 88D) between .10 and .25 inches of rain at the house yesterday, and rain looks close to Steve's lawn. The July-August season of features getting stuck under the ridge and retrograding toward my lawn can be a happy season.

Still no model support for Atlantic lemon on GFS, Canadia or first 5 days of Euro, 20% seems about right.

post-138-0-05213000-1340994754_thumb.jpg

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As Mike mentioned in the EPAC thread, there are indications that an approaching Kelvin Wave in the EPAC and the monsoonal trough once again may become an issue in about 8-10 days. If there were to be any future development, it is my hunch that it would occur further W in the NW Caribbean or the Bay of Campeche near July 9th, +/- a couple of days. We will see.

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Doubt much comes of it and ignored the flareup today. Still gets a mention in the TWO -

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE

WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN

THIS AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10

MPH.

atl3.gif

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Reduced to 0% this morning. :( Still kind of fun to see the W Gulf flaring up.

Interesting little mid level vort near the Middle Texas Coast. It certainly is bringing some beneficial rains across Coastal Texas... ;)

post-32-0-72409900-1341083773_thumb.jpg

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Nothing on the immediate horizon, or even the intermediate horizon, but, the area of cool SSTs West of Florida from Debby have already warmed back above 26º per AOML SST loop, or Florida is ready for its next flood producing tropical storm, whenever that might occur.

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Nothing on the models that jumps out, although I noticed Euro has 1030 mb high near Azores next week. I wouldn't think strong Easterlies would favor either warming SSTs or help with the SAL situation.

The Azores high peaks in July, 1030mb is very close to normal, probably just slightly above.

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There was a fairly impressive wave that emerged off the African coastline yesterday. It has recently developed some deeper convection over a possible mid-level center. The feature I'm looking at is just south of the Cape Verde Islands.

Africa_IR.gif

with the SAL gobbling up much of the Atlantic basin ahead of that swirl, I gather its chances are slim and none.

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with the SAL gobbling up much of the Atlantic basin ahead of that swirl, I gather its chances are slim and none.

SST's are near 80 degrees and shear is low. Chances are good if it holds together and reaches even warmer water ahead of it.. Looks like a very early Cape Verde season is upon us already this year..

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SST's are near 80 degrees and shear is low. Chances are good if it holds together and reaches even warmer water ahead of it.. Looks like a very early Cape Verde season is upon us already this year..

This is the worst set up for Cape Verde season since 2009.

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Perhaps so. But it looks as if the shear is gone right now. Time to re-evaluate... Those waves are coming off of Africa like bowling balls......

avn-l.jpg

AM is a pro-met besides a mod (oh, Congrats Adam) and knows of what he speaks. And there is more than SST and shear to consider. I advise doing a little research on SAL.

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Perhaps so. But it looks as if the shear is gone right now. Time to re-evaluate... Those waves are coming off of Africa like bowling balls......

avn-l.jpg

They are, but a strong High pressure is pulling a lot of dry air from northern Africa and putting it right in the MDR.

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They are, but a strong High pressure is pulling a lot of dry air from northern Africa and putting it right in the MDR.

And shear will increasingly be an issue as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino, plus relative SSTs still suck.

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And shear will increasingly be an issue as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino, plus relative SSTs still suck.

27C to 28C water is where they are heading right now off the coast of Africa. Surely that is warm water for this time of the year. I also see some 29C water right off the African coast. I don't see much Sahara dust either. Warmer water will give us more convection and it will moisten up the atmosphere a bit near the center. All bets are off.......

global11.cf.gif

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Sigh, this thread is a trainwreck....it is only July 3rd, one should expect hostile conditions in the MDR and we know from past experience that atmospheric conditions in this area can change on a whim. We will have an entire month to formulate one storm, which would fulfill the monthly historical average. Perhaps some more homebrew in the future as well, who knows...?

The post about insufficient SST's was total bs.

anomwne.gif

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And shear will increasingly be an issue as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino, plus relative SSTs still suck.

Adam,

Also, I believe that there may be a partial positive correlation between El Nino and SAL frequency/concentration in the MDR. Have you researched this?

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