Riptide Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Running out of time, and from what I can tell, the most obvious vorticity in low cloud elements is East of most of the convection, implying Easterly shear, but I'm still mildy surprised it isn't at least a 20%, despite lack of model support. Home made NASA visible loop. Sire, they hear your words of wisdom. 20% development chances in the next 48 hours. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARDISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS TODAY... ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The Central Atlantic disturbance has improved a bit overnight as some deep convection has fired within the wave. SAL still remains an issue, but if convection can maintain, our lemon could increase to at least 20% as it moves closer to the Caribbean Islands this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Bastardi noted on Twitter Western Gulf convection flaring nicely, but will run out of ocean. Main rains South of my lawn, so far, but I did get (based on HGX 88D) between .10 and .25 inches of rain at the house yesterday, and rain looks close to Steve's lawn. The July-August season of features getting stuck under the ridge and retrograding toward my lawn can be a happy season. Still no model support for Atlantic lemon on GFS, Canadia or first 5 days of Euro, 20% seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 This area is now invest 97L. SHIP intensity models bring it up to a moderate tropical storm later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I see we have 97L now. Very interesting little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 As Mike mentioned in the EPAC thread, there are indications that an approaching Kelvin Wave in the EPAC and the monsoonal trough once again may become an issue in about 8-10 days. If there were to be any future development, it is my hunch that it would occur further W in the NW Caribbean or the Bay of Campeche near July 9th, +/- a couple of days. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 New lemon...overall, low-grade lemonade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Doubt much comes of it and ignored the flareup today. Still gets a mention in the TWO - TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012 AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Lemon approaching Lesser Antilles appears to be pining for the fjords. Even 10% seems optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Doubt much comes of it and ignored the flareup today. Still gets a mention in the TWO - Reduced to 0% this morning. Still kind of fun to see the W Gulf flaring up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Reduced to 0% this morning. Still kind of fun to see the W Gulf flaring up. Interesting little mid level vort near the Middle Texas Coast. It certainly is bringing some beneficial rains across Coastal Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 The amount of lemons always seem to increase when there's no real tropical cyclone to focus on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Reduced to 0% this morning. Still kind of fun to see the W Gulf flaring up. Thats going to kick off the Arizona Monsoon in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Nothing on the immediate horizon, or even the intermediate horizon, but, the area of cool SSTs West of Florida from Debby have already warmed back above 26º per AOML SST loop, or Florida is ready for its next flood producing tropical storm, whenever that might occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 There was a fairly impressive wave that emerged off the African coastline yesterday. It has recently developed some deeper convection over a possible mid-level center. The feature I'm looking at is just south of the Cape Verde Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Nothing on the models that jumps out, although I noticed Euro has 1030 mb high near Azores next week. I wouldn't think strong Easterlies would favor either warming SSTs or help with the SAL situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Nothing on the models that jumps out, although I noticed Euro has 1030 mb high near Azores next week. I wouldn't think strong Easterlies would favor either warming SSTs or help with the SAL situation. The Azores high peaks in July, 1030mb is very close to normal, probably just slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 There was a fairly impressive wave that emerged off the African coastline yesterday. It has recently developed some deeper convection over a possible mid-level center. The feature I'm looking at is just south of the Cape Verde Islands. with the SAL gobbling up much of the Atlantic basin ahead of that swirl, I gather its chances are slim and none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Is Future Ernesto at 14N and 53W ? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 with the SAL gobbling up much of the Atlantic basin ahead of that swirl, I gather its chances are slim and none. SST's are near 80 degrees and shear is low. Chances are good if it holds together and reaches even warmer water ahead of it.. Looks like a very early Cape Verde season is upon us already this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 SST's are near 80 degrees and shear is low. Chances are good if it holds together and reaches even warmer water ahead of it.. Looks like a very early Cape Verde season is upon us already this year.. This is the worst set up for Cape Verde season since 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 This is the worst set up for Cape Verde season since 2009. Perhaps so. But it looks as if the shear is gone right now. Time to re-evaluate... Those waves are coming off of Africa like bowling balls...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Perhaps so. But it looks as if the shear is gone right now. Time to re-evaluate... Those waves are coming off of Africa like bowling balls...... AM is a pro-met besides a mod (oh, Congrats Adam) and knows of what he speaks. And there is more than SST and shear to consider. I advise doing a little research on SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Perhaps so. But it looks as if the shear is gone right now. Time to re-evaluate... Those waves are coming off of Africa like bowling balls...... They are, but a strong High pressure is pulling a lot of dry air from northern Africa and putting it right in the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 They are, but a strong High pressure is pulling a lot of dry air from northern Africa and putting it right in the MDR. And shear will increasingly be an issue as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino, plus relative SSTs still suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 AM is a pro-met besides a mod (oh, Congrats Adam) and knows of what he speaks. And there is more than SST and shear to consider. I advise doing a little research on SAL. Thanks, Ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 And shear will increasingly be an issue as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino, plus relative SSTs still suck. 27C to 28C water is where they are heading right now off the coast of Africa. Surely that is warm water for this time of the year. I also see some 29C water right off the African coast. I don't see much Sahara dust either. Warmer water will give us more convection and it will moisten up the atmosphere a bit near the center. All bets are off....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Sigh, this thread is a trainwreck....it is only July 3rd, one should expect hostile conditions in the MDR and we know from past experience that atmospheric conditions in this area can change on a whim. We will have an entire month to formulate one storm, which would fulfill the monthly historical average. Perhaps some more homebrew in the future as well, who knows...? The post about insufficient SST's was total bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 And shear will increasingly be an issue as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino, plus relative SSTs still suck. Adam, Also, I believe that there may be a partial positive correlation between El Nino and SAL frequency/concentration in the MDR. Have you researched this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The post about insufficient SST's was total bs. Who said anything about insufficient SSTs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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