Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 12z GFS is not excited about the wave. Still able to track it through the CATL and Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Kinda hungry for some action now. Debby was quite a tease-- got me ginned up for a nice Texan 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Kinda hungry for some action now. Debby was quite a tease-- got me ginned up for a nice Texan 'cane. 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 12z GFS is not excited about the wave. Still able to track it through the CATL and Caribbean. Canadian closes off an isobar a couple of times, still has a healthy trackable wave South of Cuba in 180 hours. I suspect stuff a week out on the Canadian will be it for the Atlantic Basin for the next month. Maybe I'm bitter about Debby not being a high end Cat 2 or even Cat 3 and headed for CRP like a forecast I saw last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Canadian closes off an isobar a couple of times, still has a healthy trackable wave South of Cuba in 180 hours. I suspect stuff a week out on the Canadian will be it for the Atlantic Basin for the next month. Maybe I'm bitter about Debby not being a high end Cat 2 or even Cat 3 and headed for CRP like a forecast I saw last weekend. The problem with any waves coming from the Atlantic currently is that we have a pretty well established TUTT axis stretching across the central Atlantic. I've outlined this on a dynamic tropopause map below. Here you can see while the easterly upper level flow (at the tropopause level) is favorable currently and for the next 2-3 days over the system located at 13N 50W, the TUTT axis is marked by much weaker upper level flow. The low level flow will likely cause whatever circulation develops to outrun the upper level component of the disturbance as the system approaches the lesser Antilles. Thus, this disturbance would need to get its act together in the next 24-48 hours in order to have a chance to become a TC before this features moves into a more unfavorable pattern near the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Canadian closes off an isobar a couple of times, still has a healthy trackable wave South of Cuba in 180 hours. I suspect stuff a week out on the Canadian will be it for the Atlantic Basin for the next month. Maybe I'm bitter about Debby not being a high end Cat 2 or even Cat 3 and headed for CRP like a forecast I saw last weekend. Debby was a horrific mess of a system and a wasted scenario. I have never actually hated a TC before and that was the first time... WRT the Atlantic, I could see how we maybe work out a weak system over the next 4-10 days, but nothing looks likely. Picked a perfect time to vacation, being that a good portion of July looks to be quiet. Epic 97' roadblock of inactivity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Debby was a horrific mess of a system and a wasted scenario. I have never actually hated a TC before and that was the first time... WRT the Atlantic, I could see how we maybe work out a weak system over the next 4-10 days, but nothing looks likely. Picked a perfect time to vacation, being that a good portion of July looks to be quiet. Epic 97' roadblock of inactivity: 1997. Still not sure why you guys are so into the 1997 analogue. Sure SOI has really dropped lately, but the signal is exaggerated by the current synoptic pattern. The global circulation takes time to respond to a developing Nino. Look at how much stronger warm SST signal was at this point in 1997 than it is now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Like something such as 1997 would occur anyways, it was below the 1950-2011 average and such seasons no longer occur in the current climate regime and also to base the potential of a tropical season on ENSO state alone is a bad move. A good reference is 2005 which maintained warm-neutral ENSO conditions which resulted in the most active season on record. I wish I could find those wind shear anomaly charts, they have been extremely low for months now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Like something such as 1997 would occur anyways, it was below the 1950-2011 average and such seasons no longer occur in the current climate regime and also to base the potential of a tropical season on ENSO state alone is a bad move. A good reference is 2005 which maintained warm-neutral ENSO conditions which resulted in the most active season on record. I wish I could find those wind shear anomaly charts, they have been extremely low for months now. Well, I'm not saying that a 1997 couldn't occur in today's climate (hopefully you were referring to the +AMO and not global warming). If we were already in a borderline moderate El Nino at this point in the season, then an 8/3/1 season would not at all be out of the question, but we're not. Are these the shear charts you were looking for? http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/atlantic.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Like something such as 1997 would occur anyways, it was below the 1950-2011 average and such seasons no longer occur in the current climate regime and also to base the potential of a tropical season on ENSO state alone is a bad move. A good reference is 2005 which maintained warm-neutral ENSO conditions which resulted in the most active season on record. I wish I could find those wind shear anomaly charts, they have been extremely low for months now. 97 came two years after '95. But as always, I'm glass half full optimistic and 12Z Euro has pretty good 850 mb vort coming off Africa Day 9 and 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Well, I'm not saying that a 1997 couldn't occur in today's climate (hopefully you were referring to the +AMO and not global warming). If we were already in a borderline moderate El Nino at this point in the season, then an 8/3/1 season would not at all be out of the question, but we're not. Are these the shear charts you were looking for? http://rammb.cira.co...rm/atlantic.asp Yes, thanks for that link. Almost all of those charts are useful to some extent. About 1997, yeah; it's a different AMO and PDO era, probably a bad analog overall. As you said, the el nino is now just coming into existence and still may not arrive on schedule. It would be a good idea to watch the daily SOI especially if becomes positive again as it could result in a delayed el nino. I did not simply make a 20/10/6 call for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Vertical wind shear anomalies - Tropcial Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 In the last visible images you could discern a small vortex in the northern part of the wave...exactly where it's puffing out some coldish clouds. It's being affected by some easterly shear and very dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 lolz at the 1997 analogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Wasnt trying to make it seem like I thought that 97 would be an analogue for this season. I just posted the activity graph for the previous posts lol. The CATL wave does appear to have.something in the works at the mid to low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Wasnt trying to make it seem like I thought that 97 would be an analog for this season. I just posted the activity graph for the previous posts lol. The CATL wave does appear to have.something in the works at the mid to low levels. And I apologize if I seemed like I was making fun of you-- I was not. I like your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 At this point, our big August/September storms will be "Issac" and "Kirk" haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 lolz at the 1997 analogue. I didn't say "exactly" like 1997. We'll know in four months. http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/tc_fcst/north_atlantic/hurricane_jun2012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 In the last visible images you could discern a small vortex in the northern part of the wave...exactly where it's puffing out some coldish clouds. It's being affected by some easterly shear and very dry air. It is huffing and puffing its way across the central Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Judging from vis before sunset, and IR2 loops, it is close to having a closed circulation at fairly low levels. With no major models showing development (some models close off isobars in a few frames intermitently), hard to have my usual glass half full optimism, but I always root for the underdog. On a silver lining note, while Debby did knock a chunk of NE Gulf SSTs below 26º, only a week past the Solstice and plenty of time to recover for the Charley Deux option in August, and there wasn't all that much TCHP to waste in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The Carla cradle is just fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The Carla cradle is just fine... TCHP is never the issue way down there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 And I apologize if I seemed like I was making fun of you-- I was not. I like your posts. Thanks, Means a lot coming from someone like you. On a less "marshmallowly" note...NESDIS has an awesome new tropical site. Includes many new features and a whole bunch of storm-specific products all on one page. Y'all should explore it a bit. Many new things on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 See you in 2013... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 See you in 2013... hey now, even a mondo-dull Nino season can produce a Cat 5 in the Miami area. Don't give up all hope. And not to be all ice p***y, but beyond the tropics, remember the 2009 Houston snow miracle? Always a silver lining to even a warm ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 It is huffing and puffing its way across the central Atlantic. Looking ok this evening, huffing and puffing a little more...it's a very smallish system, probably due to all the dry air around it...may be the reason why global models are having a difficult time to even initialize it (0z GFS). 0z GFS lifts and fills the TUTT in 5 days, but because of the tiny size of our area of interest, it's a very fragile system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Looking ok this evening, huffing and puffing a little more...it's a very smallish system, probably due to all the dry air around it...may be the reason why global models are having a difficult time to even initialize it (0z GFS). 0z GFS lifts and fills the TUTT in 5 days, but because of the tiny size of our area of interest, it's a very fragile system. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2 Oh damn, it really does look remotely interesting. It has some kind of very sharp wave axis or mid-level circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The Central Atlantic disturbance has improved a bit overnight as some deep convection has fired within the wave. SAL still remains an issue, but if convection can maintain, our lemon could increase to at least 20% as it moves closer to the Caribbean Islands this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 This does look rather interesting. Either a very sharp axis or some sort of mid to low level circulation. Actually looks like a pretty decent pouch system. I could actually see this getting bumped to 20% at some point today if the NHC can get over that this has no model support at all. Would be very interesting to see how the storm-specific models handle this thing...especially the HWRF, due to its resolution and the tiny nature of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Running out of time, and from what I can tell, the most obvious vorticity in low cloud elements is East of most of the convection, implying Easterly shear, but I'm still mildy surprised it isn't at least a 20%, despite lack of model support. Home made NASA visible loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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