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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part I


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Yep... SSTs are rather neutral...but how did 1933 went bonkers? It looks like SSTs were meh too. But yeah, I'm not pimping an hyperactive year...not now.

I get very skeptical about SST records before we had an extensive record of moored buoy observations or even anything before the satellite era.

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:weight_lift:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY

DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

two_atl.gif

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I get very skeptical about SST records before we had an extensive record of moored buoy observations or even anything before the satellite era.

The 2012 SST map is quite weird, the tropical regions are cooler than previous years but the mid-laditude areas are warmer and the Labrador current appears to be less prominent, perhaps explaining the genesis of Hurricane Chris.

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I still have serious doubts about that... the first three TCs this year have all been hybrid/subtropical type systems that don't really do much other than pad the numerical totals while the ACE produced is relatively low. In terms of true TC type systems, the SSTs still leave much to be desired in the Atlantic despite being slightly above normal in the main development region. Combine that with a weak/moderate El Nino developing in progress, and I'd be weary of going above 125% ACE this year.

That's the vibe we all seem to be getting from Hurricane Season 2012. We may outpace 2005 and get our "D" storm before July 1st, and we've already had a hurricane before the 2005 season did, but this is just coincidence or no indication of an actual active season.

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What's particularly interesting to me is how active both basins have been this early in the game. We've already had two significant hurricanes-- including a pretty-decent landfall-- on the EPAC side, and on the NATL side, we've already had a near-hurricane (60-kt) landfall in the USA, not to mention an actual hurricane out in the ocean. If 96L becomes something decent, it would only add to this bizarre, dual-basin burst of early-season activity.

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What's particularly interesting to me is how active both basins have been this early in the game. We've already had two significant hurricanes-- including a pretty-decent landfall-- on the EPAC side, and on the NATL side, we've already had a near-hurricane (60-kt) landfall in the USA, not to mention an actual hurricane out in the ocean. If 96L becomes something decent, it would only add to this bizarre, dual-basin burst of early-season activity.

Even more interesting, every case of genesis in the E. Pac this year has been followed by subsequent genesis in the Atlantic 5 or 6 days later. Could be coincidence, but could also have to do with the fact that it typically takes kelvin waves and/or the MJO on the order of several days to a week to cross basins.

TS Aletta: May 14

TS Alberto: May 19

H Bud: May 21

TS Beryl: May 26

H Carlotta: Jun 13

H Chris: Jun 19

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Even more interesting, every case of genesis in the E. Pac this year has been followed by subsequent genesis in the Atlantic 5 or 6 days later. Could be coincidence, but could also have to do with the fact that it typically takes kelvin waves and/or the MJO on the order of several days to a week to cross basins.

TS Aletta: May 14

TS Alberto: May 19

H Bud: May 21

TS Beryl: May 26

H Carlotta: Jun 13

H Chris: Jun 19

Wow-- very cool observation there! I hadn't noticed. Your explanation makes sense. More and more, I'm realizing how interrelated the two basins are.

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Rather unscientifically, just eyeballing the below image, and recalling I had seen the MJO once described as a "40 day pattern" after Debby does its rainy but un-sechsy thing, it should be fairly slow for most of July. Not picking a favorite model for MJO forecasts, Just eyeballing the recent past.

Plus July is usually a boring month anyway.

tm_order.gif

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Even more interesting, every case of genesis in the E. Pac this year has been followed by subsequent genesis in the Atlantic 5 or 6 days later. Could be coincidence, but could also have to do with the fact that it typically takes kelvin waves and/or the MJO on the order of several days to a week to cross basins.

TS Aletta: May 14

TS Alberto: May 19

H Bud: May 21

TS Beryl: May 26

H Carlotta: Jun 13

H Chris: Jun 19

Wow-- very cool observation there! I hadn't noticed. Your explanation makes sense. More and more, I'm realizing how interrelated the two basins are.

It makes me happy to see folks here are beginning to see this relationship. It's been nearly 4 years now that I have been speaking the relationship between tropical cyclogenesis and convectively-coupled Kelvin waves/MJO at national conferences. While it might seem more obvious to some here.. it was an extremely exhausting processes to speak about Kelvin waves as being important for a genesis/intensification process for tropical cyclones. A lot of the old-school meteorologists do not like to look at time-longitude, or hovmoller type plots. If they couldn't see it on a weather map, which was one image that looped with time, they wouldnt believe it. It's extremely hard to observe Kelvin waves on these types of maps because they intensify and trigger westward propagating MCSs. It becomes very hard to the human eye to see an eastward sequence of either intensifying or triggering westward propagating convective disturbances.

Anyway, if anyone is interested, here is some literature from my PhD work (graduating in Dec. 2012) that has been published in Monthly Weather Review on Kelvin waves and Atlantic tropical cyclones:

http://journals.amet...WR-D-11-00122.1

http://journals.amet...ournalCode=mwre

The second paper will be in July's MWR issue. I have another paper currently in submission speaking about Kelvin waves and African easterly wave activity. If you are interested in that paper, just shoot me over a message.

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This season has been wild so far, we're only to late June and waiting on Ernesto already. We've had a hurricane, damn near another hurricane with Beryl, and Debby was forecast to be a hurricane headed for Texas (although now it's a sloshing broad ill-defined panhandle system).

Despite all of this, with the peak of the season still months away, is it just me or is there kind of this general expectation of letdown?

Kind of like when you vote but you know deep down you're candidate will still lose? Even though the voting and enthusiasm of a forthcoming election night excites you....you still know in the end you're candidate will not win? That's the vibe I'm getting from the 2012 Hurricane Season. That despite all this early season activity, despite being 4/1/0 by the end of June...that this season will be dull.

Anybody else getting that same vibe?

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This season has been wild so far, we're only to late June and waiting on Ernesto already. We've had a hurricane, damn near another hurricane with Beryl, and Debby was forecast to be a hurricane headed for Texas (although now it's a sloshing broad ill-defined panhandle system).

Despite all of this, with the peak of the season still months away, is it just me or is there kind of this general expectation of letdown?

Kind of like when you vote but you know deep down you're candidate will still lose? Even though the voting and enthusiasm of a forthcoming election night excites you....you still know in the end you're candidate will not win? That's the vibe I'm getting from the 2012 Hurricane Season. That despite all this early season activity, despite being 4/1/0 by the end of June...that this season will be dull.

Anybody else getting that same vibe?

Not really.

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Rather unscientifically, just eyeballing the below image, and recalling I had seen the MJO once described as a "40 day pattern" after Debby does its rainy but un-sechsy thing, it should be fairly slow for most of July. Not picking a favorite model for MJO forecasts, Just eyeballing the recent past.

Plus July is usually a boring month anyway.

2005 especially was a major snoozer

;)

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I followed Claudette in '03 and Dennis as much as the next guy. I think I also threw in the qualifier "usually"...

July is USUALLY boring...

haha yeah I know, just giving you a hard time.

Anyway, I do agree that things may slow down in July, though I'll be interested in seeing the progression of this MJO wave as right now, there is some disconnect between the related overturning cell and the state of AAM ...which seems to be notably leading the MJO wave phase at this point.

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Hi all, for whoever is interested, I have begun my long-range forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/forecast.html#/news/

As of current intraseasonal state, there still appears to be some chance of a tropical cylone forming over the Atlantic through early July. After that, conditions should be come less favorable for genesis until late July.

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Hi all, for whoever is interested, I have begun my long-range forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity: http://mikeventrice....ast.html#/news/

As of current intraseasonal state, there still appears to be some chance of a tropical cylone forming over the Atlantic through early July. After that, conditions should be come less favorable for genesis until late July.

Excellent site and analysis! I hope you continue these and post here as much as you can during the season.

You seem to have some great and "new" information that we could all benefit from.

;)

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Nice little pre-game wave in the CATL

GFS has this getting a bit more interesting, in terms of the associated vort pulsing until it reaches the Caribbean. Nothing will come of it, but it's always nice to see some June AEWs.

Yep, GFS kills it in the Caribbean graveyard, which climatologically sounds about right. Only chance is to squeeze the basin wide 200hpa favorable climatological conditions and become something organized before entering the Caribbean. The environment around it looks quite dry, though.

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Yep, GFS kills it in the Caribbean graveyard, which climatologically sounds about right. Only chance is to squeeze the basin wide 200hpa favorable climatological conditions and become something organized before entering the Caribbean. The environment around it looks quite dry, though.

Not far from the dry air desert, but really nice to look at on Steve's favorite hotlink, the CIMSS TPW loop.

ETA: FWIW, I can track it at 700 mb to Cuba before the hour 192 truncation.

latest72hrs.gif

post-138-0-46021300-1340733556_thumb.gif

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Not far from the dry air desert, but really nice to look at on Steve's favorite hotlink, the CIMSS TPW loop.

ETA: FWIW, I can track it at 700 mb to Cuba before the hour 192 truncation.

On the 18z GFS you can see it crossing FL and then MX/TX ;)

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY

DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH

OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE

VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES

WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS

post-32-0-63648300-1340756823_thumb.gif

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Still looks good on TPW loop and better than ever on satellite. I think it reaches the Bahamas before Hour 192 on 6Z GFS, I think it runs into South America on Euro. I try not to model hug, but no matter how good something looks, even if CIMSS shear, UL divergence, TPW, LL convergence looks good, I can't recall anything that ever developed w/o some model support within a few days of development, and I'm assuming it has about 5 days before the Eastern Caribbean.

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Still looks good on TPW loop and better than ever on satellite. I think it reaches the Bahamas before Hour 192 on 6Z GFS, I think it runs into South America on Euro. I try not to model hug, but no matter how good something looks, even if CIMSS shear, UL divergence, TPW, LL convergence looks good, I can't recall anything that ever developed w/o some model support within a few days of development, and I'm assuming it has about 5 days before the Eastern Caribbean.

From TS Gaston 2010 TCR:

c. Forecast and Warning Critique

The genesis of Gaston was not well anticipated by NHC or the global models. The wave

that eventually spawned Gaston was introduced in the Tropical Weather Outlook only about 24 h

before genesis and stayed in the low category (<30%).

I remember it well, that none of the models anticipated cyclogenesis.

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