phil882 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Yep... SSTs are rather neutral...but how did 1933 went bonkers? It looks like SSTs were meh too. But yeah, I'm not pimping an hyperactive year...not now. I get very skeptical about SST records before we had an extensive record of moored buoy observations or even anything before the satellite era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. 1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Just as a sidenote reminder, let's keep all discussion about 96L in its respective thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I get very skeptical about SST records before we had an extensive record of moored buoy observations or even anything before the satellite era. The 2012 SST map is quite weird, the tropical regions are cooler than previous years but the mid-laditude areas are warmer and the Labrador current appears to be less prominent, perhaps explaining the genesis of Hurricane Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I still have serious doubts about that... the first three TCs this year have all been hybrid/subtropical type systems that don't really do much other than pad the numerical totals while the ACE produced is relatively low. In terms of true TC type systems, the SSTs still leave much to be desired in the Atlantic despite being slightly above normal in the main development region. Combine that with a weak/moderate El Nino developing in progress, and I'd be weary of going above 125% ACE this year. That's the vibe we all seem to be getting from Hurricane Season 2012. We may outpace 2005 and get our "D" storm before July 1st, and we've already had a hurricane before the 2005 season did, but this is just coincidence or no indication of an actual active season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 What's particularly interesting to me is how active both basins have been this early in the game. We've already had two significant hurricanes-- including a pretty-decent landfall-- on the EPAC side, and on the NATL side, we've already had a near-hurricane (60-kt) landfall in the USA, not to mention an actual hurricane out in the ocean. If 96L becomes something decent, it would only add to this bizarre, dual-basin burst of early-season activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 What's particularly interesting to me is how active both basins have been this early in the game. We've already had two significant hurricanes-- including a pretty-decent landfall-- on the EPAC side, and on the NATL side, we've already had a near-hurricane (60-kt) landfall in the USA, not to mention an actual hurricane out in the ocean. If 96L becomes something decent, it would only add to this bizarre, dual-basin burst of early-season activity. Even more interesting, every case of genesis in the E. Pac this year has been followed by subsequent genesis in the Atlantic 5 or 6 days later. Could be coincidence, but could also have to do with the fact that it typically takes kelvin waves and/or the MJO on the order of several days to a week to cross basins. TS Aletta: May 14 TS Alberto: May 19 H Bud: May 21 TS Beryl: May 26 H Carlotta: Jun 13 H Chris: Jun 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Even more interesting, every case of genesis in the E. Pac this year has been followed by subsequent genesis in the Atlantic 5 or 6 days later. Could be coincidence, but could also have to do with the fact that it typically takes kelvin waves and/or the MJO on the order of several days to a week to cross basins. TS Aletta: May 14 TS Alberto: May 19 H Bud: May 21 TS Beryl: May 26 H Carlotta: Jun 13 H Chris: Jun 19 Wow-- very cool observation there! I hadn't noticed. Your explanation makes sense. More and more, I'm realizing how interrelated the two basins are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Rather unscientifically, just eyeballing the below image, and recalling I had seen the MJO once described as a "40 day pattern" after Debby does its rainy but un-sechsy thing, it should be fairly slow for most of July. Not picking a favorite model for MJO forecasts, Just eyeballing the recent past. Plus July is usually a boring month anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Even more interesting, every case of genesis in the E. Pac this year has been followed by subsequent genesis in the Atlantic 5 or 6 days later. Could be coincidence, but could also have to do with the fact that it typically takes kelvin waves and/or the MJO on the order of several days to a week to cross basins. TS Aletta: May 14 TS Alberto: May 19 H Bud: May 21 TS Beryl: May 26 H Carlotta: Jun 13 H Chris: Jun 19 Wow-- very cool observation there! I hadn't noticed. Your explanation makes sense. More and more, I'm realizing how interrelated the two basins are. It makes me happy to see folks here are beginning to see this relationship. It's been nearly 4 years now that I have been speaking the relationship between tropical cyclogenesis and convectively-coupled Kelvin waves/MJO at national conferences. While it might seem more obvious to some here.. it was an extremely exhausting processes to speak about Kelvin waves as being important for a genesis/intensification process for tropical cyclones. A lot of the old-school meteorologists do not like to look at time-longitude, or hovmoller type plots. If they couldn't see it on a weather map, which was one image that looped with time, they wouldnt believe it. It's extremely hard to observe Kelvin waves on these types of maps because they intensify and trigger westward propagating MCSs. It becomes very hard to the human eye to see an eastward sequence of either intensifying or triggering westward propagating convective disturbances. Anyway, if anyone is interested, here is some literature from my PhD work (graduating in Dec. 2012) that has been published in Monthly Weather Review on Kelvin waves and Atlantic tropical cyclones: http://journals.amet...WR-D-11-00122.1 http://journals.amet...ournalCode=mwre The second paper will be in July's MWR issue. I have another paper currently in submission speaking about Kelvin waves and African easterly wave activity. If you are interested in that paper, just shoot me over a message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 This season has been wild so far, we're only to late June and waiting on Ernesto already. We've had a hurricane, damn near another hurricane with Beryl, and Debby was forecast to be a hurricane headed for Texas (although now it's a sloshing broad ill-defined panhandle system). Despite all of this, with the peak of the season still months away, is it just me or is there kind of this general expectation of letdown? Kind of like when you vote but you know deep down you're candidate will still lose? Even though the voting and enthusiasm of a forthcoming election night excites you....you still know in the end you're candidate will not win? That's the vibe I'm getting from the 2012 Hurricane Season. That despite all this early season activity, despite being 4/1/0 by the end of June...that this season will be dull. Anybody else getting that same vibe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 This season has been wild so far, we're only to late June and waiting on Ernesto already. We've had a hurricane, damn near another hurricane with Beryl, and Debby was forecast to be a hurricane headed for Texas (although now it's a sloshing broad ill-defined panhandle system). Despite all of this, with the peak of the season still months away, is it just me or is there kind of this general expectation of letdown? Kind of like when you vote but you know deep down you're candidate will still lose? Even though the voting and enthusiasm of a forthcoming election night excites you....you still know in the end you're candidate will not win? That's the vibe I'm getting from the 2012 Hurricane Season. That despite all this early season activity, despite being 4/1/0 by the end of June...that this season will be dull. Anybody else getting that same vibe? Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Rather unscientifically, just eyeballing the below image, and recalling I had seen the MJO once described as a "40 day pattern" after Debby does its rainy but un-sechsy thing, it should be fairly slow for most of July. Not picking a favorite model for MJO forecasts, Just eyeballing the recent past. Plus July is usually a boring month anyway. 2005 especially was a major snoozer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 2005 especially was a major snoozer I followed Claudette in '03 and Dennis as much as the next guy. I think I also threw in the qualifier "usually"... July is USUALLY boring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I followed Claudette in '03 and Dennis as much as the next guy. I think I also threw in the qualifier "usually"... July is USUALLY boring... haha yeah I know, just giving you a hard time. Anyway, I do agree that things may slow down in July, though I'll be interested in seeing the progression of this MJO wave as right now, there is some disconnect between the related overturning cell and the state of AAM ...which seems to be notably leading the MJO wave phase at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Hi all, for whoever is interested, I have begun my long-range forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/forecast.html#/news/ As of current intraseasonal state, there still appears to be some chance of a tropical cylone forming over the Atlantic through early July. After that, conditions should be come less favorable for genesis until late July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Hi all, for whoever is interested, I have begun my long-range forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity: http://mikeventrice....ast.html#/news/ As of current intraseasonal state, there still appears to be some chance of a tropical cylone forming over the Atlantic through early July. After that, conditions should be come less favorable for genesis until late July. Excellent site and analysis! I hope you continue these and post here as much as you can during the season. You seem to have some great and "new" information that we could all benefit from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Nice little pre-game wave in the CATL GFS has this getting a bit more interesting, in terms of the associated vort pulsing until it reaches the Caribbean. Nothing will come of it, but it's always nice to see some June AEWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Nice little pre-game wave in the CATL GFS has this getting a bit more interesting, in terms of the associated vort pulsing until it reaches the Caribbean. Nothing will come of it, but it's always nice to see some June AEWs. Yep, GFS kills it in the Caribbean graveyard, which climatologically sounds about right. Only chance is to squeeze the basin wide 200hpa favorable climatological conditions and become something organized before entering the Caribbean. The environment around it looks quite dry, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Lots of dust, but I find this wave more entertaining than Debby…which is kinda sad since I'm on vacation in Gainesville and it looks like she'll pass right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Yep, GFS kills it in the Caribbean graveyard, which climatologically sounds about right. Only chance is to squeeze the basin wide 200hpa favorable climatological conditions and become something organized before entering the Caribbean. The environment around it looks quite dry, though. Not far from the dry air desert, but really nice to look at on Steve's favorite hotlink, the CIMSS TPW loop. ETA: FWIW, I can track it at 700 mb to Cuba before the hour 192 truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 ^ Definitely some rotation in that TPW loop. Interesting. Might be able to get the invest tag, but even that's unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Not far from the dry air desert, but really nice to look at on Steve's favorite hotlink, the CIMSS TPW loop. ETA: FWIW, I can track it at 700 mb to Cuba before the hour 192 truncation. On the 18z GFS you can see it crossing FL and then MX/TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 On the 18z GFS you can see it crossing FL and then MX/TX It's got a bunch of shear to deal with Tutt season In the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. 1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Such a shame that this has to crash into the TUTT. The Bermuda High's position would make for an interesting tropical cyclone. 850 vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Looks like a pretty classic pouch to me. I wish that they continued the PGI tracking from 2010. TPW Anom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Im done spamming this thread, but RAMMB already has a floater on this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Im done spamming this thread, but RAMMB already has a floater on this wave. Still looks good on TPW loop and better than ever on satellite. I think it reaches the Bahamas before Hour 192 on 6Z GFS, I think it runs into South America on Euro. I try not to model hug, but no matter how good something looks, even if CIMSS shear, UL divergence, TPW, LL convergence looks good, I can't recall anything that ever developed w/o some model support within a few days of development, and I'm assuming it has about 5 days before the Eastern Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Still looks good on TPW loop and better than ever on satellite. I think it reaches the Bahamas before Hour 192 on 6Z GFS, I think it runs into South America on Euro. I try not to model hug, but no matter how good something looks, even if CIMSS shear, UL divergence, TPW, LL convergence looks good, I can't recall anything that ever developed w/o some model support within a few days of development, and I'm assuming it has about 5 days before the Eastern Caribbean. From TS Gaston 2010 TCR: c. Forecast and Warning Critique The genesis of Gaston was not well anticipated by NHC or the global models. The wave that eventually spawned Gaston was introduced in the Tropical Weather Outlook only about 24 h before genesis and stayed in the low category (<30%). I remember it well, that none of the models anticipated cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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