wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 There is general agreement from the ensembles that this area currently near the Yucatan Peninsula will move off to the north and then toward the west over the next couple days. However, once we get out past 3-5 days, there is quite a spread among the members. I would say that almost 1/3 of the ensemble members have this area moving west and making landfall in Texas. About 15% have this system being picked up by front and pulled off to the northeast and up the East Coast. Also, about 15% of the members have landfall along the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. Finally, about a third eventually have the storm dissipating in the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, it seems likely that this storm will develop. However, the track and ultimate intensity are tough to pinpoint. Thanks a lot! Personally, I'd give it a 60/40% chance of an east/west track, mostly out of respect of the op Euro and GFS, but only a small variation in the synoptic features (plains ridge, east trough) can change the whole outlook from run to run, even as close as 72hrs from it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Stations in the northern Yucatan peninsula are reporting west winds for a few hours now...although they are weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Possible invest designation over the Yuc with those west winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The developing low still remains highly sheared as it exits the Yucatan Peninsula. While the convection has increased along the trough axis extending E, the lack of development on the western semi circle raises an eyebrow. There are multiple upper lows across the Western Basin. One is nearing the Bahamas, a second UL is near Pensacola and a third is near the South Texas Coast. Further W another is near the Baja. This will likely be a very slow developing system, IMO and that lack of full organization may leave a Westward drift beneath the building Central US Ridge. If we see a fully vertically stacked scenario, a NE motion due to the incoming EC trough would appear likely. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Possible invest designation over the Yuc with those west winds? I can see low level cloud motion from the west, but the low is very elongated NE/SW, from the BoC to the E GoM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Reading last few ENSO thread posts, I'm getting 1997-vu, may trim forecast contest numbers halfway between current guess and '97 numbers. 1997 also started w/ 4 named storms by mid-July. Well, I'm not getting a 97-ish vibe. 1997 was already a moderate El Nino by June, with a MJJ ONI of 1.2. The Nino developing this year is probably a least 1-2 months behind that, which could potentially mean 1-2 more months of active tropics (potentially the heart of the season) before we see things quiet down. 30-day SOI has pretty much flatlined over the last week as well. This record moisture content has been an interesting feature this spring into the summer. I saved a Florida AFD from April 29th. Discussion... infrared satellite this morning showed an extra-tropical/hybrid looking system developing over the Florida Straits. Precipitable waters are expected to increase up to 2-2.2 inches along the East Coast...which is above the 99th percentile and near or even exceeding record values for this time of year. That's certainly encouraging for tropical development, especially since the airmass over FL is now being directly transported into the primary circulation over the southeast Gulf. Now we just need that shear to relax... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z GFS still showing primary development north of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Gulf Visible Loop Gulf Water Vapor Loop Gulf of Mexico large images and loops Also includes water vapor and IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 There's an incipient closed low developing just offshore the N Yucatan, but it's embedded within the very broad cyclonic turning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z GFS still showing primary development north of the Bahamas. Too much bouncing around and drifting north/east with a developing ridge to it's NW, stronger than the one to it's SE...The trough comes to play after it's almost over the FL peninsula. Not a fan of that solution...if any, the Euro, if maybe too strong, looks more likely to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z CMC is similar to yesterday's, but it's closer to a N GoM landfall or getting hooked by the trough...no landfall by day 7, but it's moving SW very close to the TX coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z CMC is similar to yesterday's, but it's closer to a N GoM landfall or getting hooked by the trough...no landfall by day 7, but it's moving SW very close to the TX coast. Ukmet as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The 12z Ukie is a landfall in S TX, around Kenedy county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Ukmet as well... The 12z Ukie is a landfall in S TX, around Kenedy county. it doesn't drift north as far as the cmc, then turns west around 26N, underneath the developing plains ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 A quick little tour of the tropical world shows that homerism is alive and well when it's Ukie,CMC v GFS,King Euro. Texans will begin hyperventilating if there is any change with the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 UKM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Up to 50% already and it doesn't have a defined circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 It will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro shows again. I'm guessing Northeast Gulf Coastish. Also, I can't believe we will probably have Debby before July 1. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The 12z Ukie is a landfall in S TX, around Kenedy county. I've updated my blog with some more details on the budding disturbance: http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/06/21/chris-becomes-a-hurricane-large-disturbance-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/ My hunch is that there are going to be some huge jumps in the development of this TC over the next 24-48 hours as the models get a better handle of where the vorticity is going to be focused. You can see from the 00z ECMWF last night that there are a lot of different vorticity elements interacting which lead to the development of a TC towards in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Finally tagged... http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2012&MO=06&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=96L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc12/ATL/03L.CHRIS/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al962012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201206211759 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012062118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012 AL, 96, 2012062118, , BEST, 0, 217N, 890W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 That is some mighty convection. Cloud top temps below -85C, approaching -90C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Quick summary of buoy data http://www.daculaweather.com/4_buoy_gom.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 AL, 96, 2012062118, , BEST, 0, 217N, 890W, 20, 1008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 96L thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The ECMWF is much more bullish now with 96L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 If we can avoid an El Niño, this could become an hyperactive year. I still have serious doubts about that... the first three TCs this year have all been hybrid/subtropical type systems that don't really do much other than pad the numerical totals while the ACE produced is relatively low. In terms of true TC type systems, the SSTs still leave much to be desired in the Atlantic despite being slightly above normal in the main development region. Combine that with a weak/moderate El Nino developing in progress, and I'd be weary of going above 125% ACE this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I still have serious doubts about that... the first three TCs this year have all been hybrid/subtropical type systems that don't really do much other than pad the numerical totals while the ACE produced is relatively low. In terms of true TC type systems, the SSTs still leave much to be desired in the Atlantic despite being slightly above normal in the main development region. Combine that with a weak/moderate El Nino developing in progress, and I'd be weary of going above 125% ACE this year. Yep... SSTs are rather neutral...but how did 1933 went bonkers? It looks like SSTs were meh too. But yeah, I'm not pimping an hyperactive year...not now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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