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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part I


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There is general agreement from the ensembles that this area currently near the Yucatan Peninsula will move off to the north and then toward the west over the next couple days. However, once we get out past 3-5 days, there is quite a spread among the members. I would say that almost 1/3 of the ensemble members have this area moving west and making landfall in Texas. About 15% have this system being picked up by front and pulled off to the northeast and up the East Coast. Also, about 15% of the members have landfall along the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. Finally, about a third eventually have the storm dissipating in the Gulf of Mexico.

Overall, it seems likely that this storm will develop. However, the track and ultimate intensity are tough to pinpoint.

Thanks a lot!

Personally, I'd give it a 60/40% chance of an east/west track, mostly out of respect of the op Euro and GFS, but only a small variation in the synoptic features (plains ridge, east trough) can change the whole outlook from run to run, even as close as 72hrs from it happening.

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The developing low still remains highly sheared as it exits the Yucatan Peninsula. While the convection has increased along the trough axis extending E, the lack of development on the western semi circle raises an eyebrow. There are multiple upper lows across the Western Basin. One is nearing the Bahamas, a second UL is near Pensacola and a third is near the South Texas Coast. Further W another is near the Baja. This will likely be a very slow developing system, IMO and that lack of full organization may leave a Westward drift beneath the building Central US Ridge. If we see a fully vertically stacked scenario, a NE motion due to the incoming EC trough would appear likely. We will see.

post-32-0-35272200-1340291614_thumb.jpg

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Reading last few ENSO thread posts, I'm getting 1997-vu, may trim forecast contest numbers halfway between current guess and '97 numbers. 1997 also started w/ 4 named storms by mid-July.

Well, I'm not getting a 97-ish vibe. 1997 was already a moderate El Nino by June, with a MJJ ONI of 1.2. The Nino developing this year is probably a least 1-2 months behind that, which could potentially mean 1-2 more months of active tropics (potentially the heart of the season) before we see things quiet down. 30-day SOI has pretty much flatlined over the last week as well.

This record moisture content has been an interesting feature this spring into the summer.

I saved a Florida AFD from April 29th.

Discussion...

infrared satellite this morning showed an extra-tropical/hybrid looking

system developing over the Florida Straits. Precipitable waters are expected to

increase up to 2-2.2 inches along the East Coast...which is above

the 99th percentile and near or even exceeding record values for

this time of year.

That's certainly encouraging for tropical development, especially since the airmass over FL is now being directly transported into the primary circulation over the southeast Gulf. Now we just need that shear to relax...

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12z GFS still showing primary development north of the Bahamas.

Too much bouncing around and drifting north/east with a developing ridge to it's NW, stronger than the one to it's SE...The trough comes to play after it's almost over the FL peninsula. Not a fan of that solution...if any, the Euro, if maybe too strong, looks more likely to pan out.

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12z CMC is similar to yesterday's, but it's closer to a N GoM landfall or getting hooked by the trough...no landfall by day 7, but it's moving SW very close to the TX coast.

Ukmet as well...;)

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atl1.gif

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD

ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE

FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE

CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF

COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE

WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH

SATURDAY.

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The 12z Ukie is a landfall in S TX, around Kenedy county.

I've updated my blog with some more details on the budding disturbance: http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/06/21/chris-becomes-a-hurricane-large-disturbance-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

My hunch is that there are going to be some huge jumps in the development of this TC over the next 24-48 hours as the models get a better handle of where the vorticity is going to be focused. You can see from the 00z ECMWF last night that there are a lot of different vorticity elements interacting which lead to the development of a TC towards in the medium range.

4pxoc9.gif

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If we can avoid an El Niño, this could become an hyperactive year.

I still have serious doubts about that... the first three TCs this year have all been hybrid/subtropical type systems that don't really do much other than pad the numerical totals while the ACE produced is relatively low. In terms of true TC type systems, the SSTs still leave much to be desired in the Atlantic despite being slightly above normal in the main development region. Combine that with a weak/moderate El Nino developing in progress, and I'd be weary of going above 125% ACE this year.

2r635up.gif

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I still have serious doubts about that... the first three TCs this year have all been hybrid/subtropical type systems that don't really do much other than pad the numerical totals while the ACE produced is relatively low. In terms of true TC type systems, the SSTs still leave much to be desired in the Atlantic despite being slightly above normal in the main development region. Combine that with a weak/moderate El Nino developing in progress, and I'd be weary of going above 125% ACE this year.

Yep... SSTs are rather neutral...but how did 1933 went bonkers? It looks like SSTs were meh too. But yeah, I'm not pimping an hyperactive year...not now.

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