wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 That's a helluva papaya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 So there's low level vorticity in the E GoM, pummeled by shear, and a bit on the BoC and an apparent MLC over the NW Yucatan, which is under the better upper level conditions... very complex setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 So there's low level vorticity in the E GoM, pummeled by shear, and a bit on the BoC and an apparent MLC over the NW Yucatan, which is under the better upper level conditions... very complex setup. Yeah, still a big mess. The area coming of the YP might be the one to get going here over the next day or so... Little more impressive earlier though. http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=gulf&channel=lc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Surprised they already bumped it up to Orange already. It's still a huge slop with a semi-vigorous MLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 There has been quite the flurry of activity in the Atlantic as well as in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere basins, which made me wonder whether Northern Hemisphere and/or global tropical cyclone activity was on the increase. Short answer is Northern Hemisphere is 33% above average YTD, but Southern Hemisphere activity is 30% below average, so global TC activity is actually 9% below average YTD. Hard to tell if the increased TC activity in the NH is a trend or a blip. Read all the gritty details at http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Surface analysis... 1009mb LPA Should move west with time and merge with the developing low over the Yucatan over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 If anything forms it will be near the Yucatan. The tutt Over Georgia is shearing the Florida stuff Apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 GFS and CMC stay put Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Euro is showing a Category 1 Hurricane making landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida before bringing it into the Atlantic as an organized system. Hr168 Hr192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The Ukmet and the GFS Ensembles disagree with the operational Euro. HPC: ...BROAD SYSTEM FCST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... PREFERENCE: GEFS MEAN CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE THE NAM AND CANADIAN GLBL BRING THE SFC LOW FARTHEST NWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THE UKMET WAS PART OF THE NRN CLUSTER IN THE 12Z CYCLE BUT HAS TRENDED SWWD SO THAT ITS SFC LOW IS JUST A LITTLE N OF THE ECMWF UNTIL F84 EARLY SUN WHEN IT IS FARTHER WWD. THIS REDUCES SUPPORT FOR THE NRN CLUSTER. ALSO THE NAM IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD WHILE THE CANADIAN GLBL IS A DEEP EXTREME. MEANWHILE BY SAT-SAT NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS GREATER EWD EXTENT OF THE OVERALL SFC SYSTEM VERSUS OTHER GUIDANCE... LIKELY DUE IN PART TO FEEDBACK AS PER ITS CONCENTRATED QPF PATTERN IN THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE 18Z-00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW MORE ERN ELONGATION THAN THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF RUNS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUCH A COMPROMISE IS CLOSE TO THE NHC/HPC MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION FROM THIS PAST AFTN SO A SOLN CLOSEST TO THE GEFS MEAN IS RECOMMENDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Euro is showing a Category 1 Hurricane making landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida before bringing it into the Atlantic as an organized system. Beware the Euro high resolution bias of a tendency of sig. overstrengthening Atlantic basin tropical cyclones near these latitudes. It has been really bad at times over the last two years. Anyone remember the tropical storm Fiona fiasco? The high resolution Euro had a good number of runs with the lowest SLP in the low 900's of mb's! The lowest it ever got was only down to 997 mb's! There have been a number of others since 2010 that were overdeveloped by the high resolution Euro. I'm not saying it can't end up verifying pretty closely. However, I certainly wouldn't put my money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Euro ensemble means are West of Op Euro. However: Supposing the Euro was right: 10 meter sustained winds on Florida Coast just north of Tampa are AOA 75 knots at 180 hours from 7 pm last evening, 6 hours later 60 knots in Northeast Coastal Florda. 75 knot or above max 10 meter gusts from just North of Tampa to near Jacksonville. 55 knot 10 meter max gusts to near Kennedy Space Center. From AccuWx PPV products. If true, big ticket item, especially this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Beware the Euro high resolution bias of a tendency of sig. overstrengthening Atlantic basin tropical cyclones near these latitudes. It has been really bad at times over the last two years. Anyone remember the tropical storm Fiona fiasco? The high resolution Euro had a good number of runs with the lowest SLP in the low 900's of mb's! The lowest it ever got was only down to 997 mb's! There have been a number of others since 2010 that were overdeveloped by the high resolution Euro. I'm not saying it can't end up verifying pretty closely. However, I certainly wouldn't put my money on it. I mostly agree with your premise, but d(Euro MSLP)/dt has proved to be a worthwhile intensity forecasting tool for me over the last several years. I'd never take a Euro intensity forecast verbatim, but the trends do help you. The Fiona debacle was because the Euro also had a terrible track forecast (too slow), which put the storm under better environmental conditions than it actually experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Euro ensemble means are West of Op Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 00z ECMWF EPS Control rundown... It takes the Caribbean mess, develops it and stalls it in the Central Gulf for quite a few days. While it meanders, the storm strengthens from 1004mbs to 986mbs(?) or so as it makes landfall on the Panhandle with winds greater than 75 knots by next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 00z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Out of the 51 00z ECMWF ensembles, 54% strengthen this area to TS, 42% to Hurricane, and 21% to major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Out of the 51 00z ECMWF ensembles, 54% strengthen this area to TS, 42% to Hurricane, and 21% to major hurricane. Is this from the individual members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Is this from the individual members? Yes that was the breakdown of all the individual ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Yes that was the breakdown of all the individual ensemble members. Could you give us a breakdown of geographical location, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 If we can avoid an El Niño, this could become an hyperactive year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Could you give us a breakdown of geographical location, please? There is general agreement from the ensembles that this area currently near the Yucatan Peninsula will move off to the north and then toward the west over the next couple days. However, once we get out past 3-5 days, there is quite a spread among the members. I would say that almost 1/3 of the ensemble members have this area moving west and making landfall in Texas. About 15% have this system being picked up by front and pulled off to the northeast and up the East Coast. Also, about 15% of the members have landfall along the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. Finally, about a third eventually have the storm dissipating in the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, it seems likely that this storm will develop. However, the track and ultimate intensity are tough to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I mostly agree with your premise, but d(Euro MSLP)/dt has proved to be a worthwhile intensity forecasting tool for me over the last several years. I'd never take a Euro intensity forecast verbatim, but the trends do help you. The Fiona debacle was because the Euro also had a terrible track forecast (too slow), which put the storm under better environmental conditions than it actually experienced. Also, the ECMWF just had an implementation this week: cycle 38r1. Some (minor-ish) changes to the DA, small changes to convection (entrainment), changes to cloud ice fall speed/ice supersaturation/melting/freezing timescale, and a change related to dealiasing of the PG term. There were also some minor changes to the EPS (mostly in the hindcast dataset for callibration, but also to some of the initial perturbations). I have no idea how these changes would impact TC genesis/track/intensity prediction. According to their "scorecard" based on the pre-implementation testing, the tropics should be improved quite a bit relative to the previous version of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I would argue that the latest run of the Euro (00z) is by far the most bullish it has been with this disturbed area. It will be interesting to see if the new 12z suite follows the Euro's aggression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 600 MB...WITH COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT A STAGGERING 2.45 INCHES!...WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGHEST AMOUNT AVAILABLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD FOR LATE JUNE AT KEY WEST. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_eyw.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 If we can avoid an El Niño, this could become an hyperactive year. Reading last few ENSO thread posts, I'm getting 1997-vu, may trim forecast contest numbers halfway between current guess and '97 numbers. 1997 also started w/ 4 named storms by mid-July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 -- A. 22/1800Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 22/1600Z D. 23.0N 89.0W E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Reading last few ENSO thread posts, I'm getting 1997-vu, may trim forecast contest numbers halfway between current guess and '97 numbers. 1997 also started w/ 4 named storms by mid-July. Copied from a 5/26/09 EUSWxBB post of mine: **El Nino v. La Nina (since 1950): # NS mo. by mo. Month..............El Nino..................La Nina May/Jun............1.1........................0.5 Jul....................0.6........................0.9 Aug..................2.3........................3.2 Sep..................3.4........................4.3 Oct...................1.3........................2.0 Nov..................0.3........................0.4 - So, whereas El Nino seasons have had twice as many during the May/June combo, La Nina seasons have lead each of the remaining months. For Jul-Nov, El Nino seasons have had ~8 NS vs. the ~11 NS of La Nina seasons. - Only three El Nino Aug's (17%) have had 4+ NS and all three were weak El Nino's. OTOH, a whopping 10 La Nina Aug's (53%) have had 4+ NS. - Only two La Nina Aug's (11%) have had fewer than 2 NS and both were weak La Nina's. OTOH, a whopping 8 El Nino Aug's (44%) have had fewer than 2 NS. - Only two El Nino Sep's (11%) have had 6+ NS. OTOH, 6 La Nina Aug's (32%) have had 6+ NS. - Only two La Nina Sep's (11%) have had fewer than 3 NS. OTOH, 6 El Nino Aug's (33%) have had fewer than 3 NS. - NO La Nina Oct's (0%) have had 0 NS. OTOH, 6 El Nino Oct's (33%) have had 0 NS and all 6 were moderate or stronger El Nino's. Since the current warm AMO's start in 1995: - May/Jun combo. has averaged ~0.8 NS for both El Nino's and La Nina's. - Jul-Nov has averaged ~9 NS for El Nino's and ~13 NS for La Nina's. 18 El Nino seasons: 51, 57, 63, 65, 68, 69, 72, 76, 77, 82, 86, 87, 91, 94, 97, 02, 04, 06 19 La Nina seasons: 50, 54, 55, 56, 62, 64, 67, 70, 71, 73, 74, 75, 84, 88, 95, 98, 99, 00, 07 **El Nino/La Nina designations based on following fall/winter classification...so Nino/Nina may not have officially started as of that month of the cane season. I still think that the Jul-Aug SOI will be a good indicator, especially the Aug SOI, for # of 'canes this season overall due to it having a pretty good partial correlation with seasonal total # of 'canes and MDR activity in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 From the HPC ACCOMPANYING IT WILL BE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ABOVE CLIMO. MORE SPECIFICALLY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS APPROACHING THE CNTRL/EASTERN GULF OF MX WILL FEATURE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 TO 2.50 IN PWATS INDICATING THE THREAT FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION...AND A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERIC LAYER POINT TO LARGE QPF AMTS WHERE EVER THE STORMS TEND TO CONGREGATE. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_qpf_disco.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 600 MB...WITH COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT A STAGGERING 2.45 INCHES!...WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGHEST AMOUNT AVAILABLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD FOR LATE JUNE AT KEY WEST. http://www.daculawea...m/4_afd_eyw.php This record moisture content has been an interesting feature this spring into the summer. I saved a Florida AFD from April 29th. Discussion... infrared satellite this morning showed an extra-tropical/hybrid looking system developing over the Florida Straits. Precipitable waters are expected to increase up to 2-2.2 inches along the East Coast...which is above the 99th percentile and near or even exceeding record values for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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