wxmx Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 In the CMC, the main difference is that the E GoM energy bends left at a quicker pace than in other models...Could the interaction with the BoC low, plus the building ridge in the S plains sling it that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I'm glass sixteenth full optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I'm glass sixteenth full optimistic. However unlikely, a strong TS/minimal hurricane probably would mean a day off Monday. And a stromg TS/Cat 1 would probably not storm surge away the Popo Playa Party Plaza pad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I hope the 12Z Euro clears up this confusing mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I'm glass sixteenth full optimistic. Well, the UKmet sort of would agree. Poor Popo and his party pad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Well, the UKmet sort of would agree. Poor Popo and his party pad... Many days off, and nowhere to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I want to see a giant papaya covering half the GoM and W Carib @ 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Many days off, and nowhere to go It is the CMC, and even then, at most, a Cat 1. It took a high end Cat 2 to destroy PPPP v1.0, and even then, my wife's cousin James was able to recover the entire liquor stash. It wasn't wiped down to a slab or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 CMC another view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 omg 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 omg 12z euro Wednesday afternoon landfall around 994mb on the Big Bend in Euro world. Probably translates to an H1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Wednesday afternoon landfall around 994mb on the Big Bend in Euro world. Probably translates to an H1. At least models are agreeing on intensity :S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Cue the Tampa Bay surge scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Debby Does Tampa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 HPC Final Diagnostics Disco: ...DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO FL... PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS BLEND TOUGH TO DISCERN EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS A VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL MOVEMENT WITH A SHEAR AXIS/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM SOUTH FL/YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WEST AND NORTH INTO THE GULF. OVERALL HPC PREFERS THE DETAILS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS... ON A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PERHAPS... MID-LEVEL VORTICITY NEAR THE WRN YUCATAN GRADUALLY DRAWING NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF ON SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Very interesting run. Models have become more bullish on the intensity of this bugger. Lets see if we can get an invest first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Tiny "eddy" drifting... Should be gone soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Tiny LLC drifting in "no mans land" That's an eddy. The broad area of low pressure is near the Bay of Campeche albeit weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Tiny LLC drifting in "no mans land" I see your 'cane, and raise it with a cutie low in the BoC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I see your 'cane, and raise it with a cutie low in the BoC Looks like Don making landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I hope the 12Z Euro clears up this confusing mess It certainly did. At least the GFS and Euro are on the relative same page. Hopefully, too, this will be a good rainmaker for some still-parched regions of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Looks like Don making landfall. Don wasn't that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I see your 'cane, and raise it with a cutie low in the BoC Marco? Is that you? Trof is starting to overspread S FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 HPC Final Update: FINAL... THE AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE GAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THE GULF/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO REFLECT THE MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL WITH THE HURRICANE CENTER. A GREAT AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD STILL EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Judging from last couple of entries in ENSO forum, if an early burst than slower than a witch's molasses season is coming, would intrepid hurricane chasers go to West Coast Florida, with decent road networks and air transport hubs to chase a Cat 1 or Cat 2 cane, the equivalent of this year's 1997 Hurricane Danny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 This is akin to after looking for the origin of all the grave barking, growling and big ferocious shadow in the wall, all you see is a chihuahua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Most of the little swirls you guys have been noting are merely the mesovorticies located within the larger monsoonal circulation. If the ECMWF and GFS are correct, we should see a much larger closed circulation develop in the Gulf of Mexico by 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Up to orange. Should be an invest within the next 24hrs. 1. A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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