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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part I


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Because there's not. I'm pointing to the possible surface minimum along the wave axis (usually near the peak of the inverted V).

While I agree with you somewhat, the greatest area of 850mb vorticity has always been just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.

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While the 12z European operational has a land falling tropical system over the NE Gulf coast, the ensemble mean leaves open the possibility of a western Gulf coast hit. Sorry, but I can't upload images via my IPad. Images can be seen at ecmwf.int

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While the 12z European operational has a land falling tropical system over the NE Gulf coast, the ensemble mean leaves open the possibility of a western Gulf coast hit. Sorry, but I can't upload images via my IPad. Images can be seen at ecmwf.int

post-32-0-69926000-1340147255_thumb.gif

post-32-0-15605300-1340147265_thumb.gif

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GFS gets low into the Gulf fairly quickly, where it then suffers obvious shear, with most of the rain and almost all of the 850 mb vorticity heading East across Florida into the Atlantic while low pressure hangs back in the Gulf.

What is left drifts towards Mexico, shear appears to lessen in a week, but judging by 700 mb RH fields, not only did the vorticity escaping East through Florida take most of the rain and develop a new surface low, it took a lot of the moisture, leaving a weak feature to drift into Northeast Mexico.

However, seeing something I mentioned on local KHOU-TV 11 forum that I saw on the Euro, and seeing on op GFS at truncation, deep East Coast trough maybe hanging a piece back into the Gulf, fairly low pressures, and much more relaxed upper winds, fairly widespread showers, and as pro-met Mike Ventrice mentioned on previous page, our side of the basin might still be favorable for development next week. Maybe still a real late June feature...

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Keep an eye on the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche. The GFS and Euro ensembles have been rather insistent that a broad surface low will form across the Western/Central Gulf Coast. While there is some deeper convection near the Isle of Youth, that extends from a trough axis and remains rather sheared and is weakening as the morning progresses. During the overnight hours the Western flank of trough axis moved inland over the Yucatan and an area of disturbed weather crossed the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (remnants of Carlotta with some 95E influence embedded within the monsoonal trough) into the far Southern areas of the Bay of Campeche. While the operational guidance has been rather vague, that area still seems a bit conducive for some eventual development and in fact the ensembles linger a general area of broad low pressure across the Western Gulf into next week. If the convection maintains and surface obs become a bit clearer that an actual surface low is forming, then it is possible that we may see and INVEST declared and then perhaps a bit better understanding of just how this monsoonal trough gyre development we have seen for days on end eventually plays out.

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Model guidance seems to be trending toward a disturbance spinning off the gyre and heading toward Florida while the gyre itself remains diffuse. This is fairly common in the West Pac, so the models' forecasts seem reasonable to me given the synoptic environment. If the Euro is right, we'll see a weak TS Debby making landfall somewhere near the Big Bend; if the GFS is right, TS Debby will form in the Northwest Atlantic as the disturbance interacts with a cold front. This is a much more likely way to get a tropical cyclone down there than the Slopgyre solutions we've been seeing for the last two weeks.

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First hint we may see an INVEST forthcoming:

NOUS42 KNHC 201245

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST

AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

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Model guidance seems to be trending toward a disturbance spinning off the gyre and heading toward Florida while the gyre itself remains diffuse. This is fairly common in the West Pac, so the models' forecasts seem reasonable to me given the synoptic environment. If the Euro is right, we'll see a weak TS Debby making landfall somewhere near the Big Bend; if the GFS is right, TS Debby will form in the Northwest Atlantic as the disturbance interacts with a cold front. This is a much more likely way to get a tropical cyclone down there than the Slopgyre solutions we've been seeing for the last two weeks.

Yep, the FL solution is more likely to pan out...so unless the ridging is more expansive to the east and the east coast trough doesn't dig as forecasted, the W GoM won't see anything else than garden variety disturbed weather, mostly south of the TX/MX border.

You can see the low level turning over and just N of W Cuba now, where enhanced 850mb vorticity is noted in CIMSS' analysis.

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Veracruz reporting light northerly winds while further E, buoy 42055 reporting ESE winds in the 15+ mph range with gusts. Pressures are not all that low at this time.

There looks to be a weak and small mid-low level vortex there, just ESE of Veracruz...looks transient, but whatever helps the lifting there is good.

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I've pretty much have given up on anything of importance, even if named as a TC, coming out of current Gulf/NW Caribbean set up next few days. Still glass eight full optimistic on something from Up North getting into Gulf late next week when shear should be more favorable, GFS shows fairly low pressures in Gulf associated with Western remnant of slop-gyre low, and Gulf looks convectively active.

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