Superstorm93 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 We have a non-tropical 95L in the North ATL. Might have some shot at a STS designation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Agree. The 00Z Euro throws a bone, albeit weak. My hunch still remains that this will be a broad monsoonal gyre slowly meandering N to NW for the SW Gulf as the EPAC vorticity crosses the Isthmus of Tehuantepec along with the Western Caribbean disturbance embedded within the monsoonal trough. We will see. I know its early in the season, but that's a lot of dry air east of the Carib above 10N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Pretty pessimistic on any deep tropical benefits for my lawn, but Guchol's race will be run in a couple of days, and I want to be watching something. Finally, convection and CIMSS analyzed low level vorticity together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Sure is nice to have all that dry air around Florida. Although I want to see a TC, I can't possibly complain about the low-60s dew points in Miami. Not convinced that the orange thing will do anything, with an SST of 22-23 C. But it does appear to have a window of lower shear in about 36 hours. It would be a shame to waste a good hurricane name like Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 My Caribbean blob, difference between 850 mb vorticity and 500 mb vorticity (from CIMSS) suggests 20-30 knots deep shear is not promoting raid organization. Shear tendency, however, is favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I know its early in the season, but that's a lot of dry air east of the Carib above 10N. Normal...we'll probably have several of those dry air "outbreaks" for the next 2 months...we are currently in a period of -NAO, so my guess is that they will be less extreme on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 JB https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/214734077180391424/photo/1 I kind of doubt it, but he has a degree in met, and I don't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Josh would need to fuel up the iCyclone puddle jumper for a quick trip to Mobile via the Crazy Canadian today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Josh would need to fuel up the iCyclone puddle jumper for a quick trip to Mobile via the Crazy Canadian today... The new GFS kind of supports an East Gulf threat... Edit to add- Before I am accused of stupidity (although its true) Euro 'meh' system Northeast Mexico- between fact its ECMWF and fairly consistent, if a betting man, a meh system near/North of Tampico. I suspect new Euro will be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 HPC afternoon update regarding the Bay of Campeche potential... FINAL... AS A WHOLE...THE 12Z/18 MODEL CYCLE OFFERED NO COMPELLING REASONS TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PRELIMINARY UPDATE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. REFINED THE SUBTROPICS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS PER COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...OPTING TO EXTEND A TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 12z Euro might get interesting...stronger Caribbean vorticity heading for the E GoM as ridge starts to build to the north... the current loop is a nice place to start advancing a bit to the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 12z Euro might get interesting...stronger Caribbean vorticity heading for the E GoM as ridge starts to build to the north... the current loop is a nice place to start advancing a bit to the left. Still monsoon depression-looking through 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Still monsoon depression-looking through 102 What would Josh say? oh yes, BUZZKILL! It looks the best it has looked in the Euro in the past 3-4 days, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Looks like a TUTT or weak ULL in the N GoM might keep any cyclogenesis on check from day 4 to day 6. Nowcasting mode. Low and mid level vorticity seem like they are better aligned according to CIMSS vorticity products. Looking at the visible, turning is evident just to the NE of Cape Gracias a Dios. There's shear imparted by a weak ULL in the Central GoM. It's forecasted to retrograde northwest and fill, leaving a little better environment (not ideal) days 1-3 near the Yucatan Channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Looks like a TUTT or weak ULL in the N GoM might keep any cyclogenesis on check from day 4 to day 6. Nowcasting mode. Low and mid level vorticity seem like they are better aligned according to CIMSS vorticity products. Looking at the visible, turning is evident just to the NE of Cape Gracias a Dios. There's shear imparted by a weak ULL in the Central GoM. It's forecasted to retrograde northwest and fill, leaving a little better environment (not ideal) days 1-3 near the Yucatan Channel. The good news if there is any, the UL has started to crawl WNW along the elongated trough axis extending from near Lake Charles. It appears Tampico on N would be the favored area for any eventual 'landfall' of this strung out slopgyre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 The good news if there is any, the UL has started to crawl WNW along the elongated trough axis extending from near Lake Charles. It appears Tampico on N would be the favored area for any eventual 'landfall' of this strung out slopgyre. Gonna be pretty upset if this slopgyre nonsense rains all over the Yucatan next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 HWRF is on board for the BOC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Even the Euro pulls a piece out of the slop-gyre and sends it towars the Northeast Gulf (just a little like CMC/GFS action) while sending what is left WSW towards Mexico with little obvious development. Hey, its June, no worries. And the really awful heat looks to be up in the Ozarks, not SETX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Forgot that the HS3 program was due to start this summer. I believe it won't officially be up and running till August. Good stuff! http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/missions/hs3/news/hs3.html *edit* Calender and official home page of the HS3 missions - http://www.espo.nasa.gov/hs3/ http://www.espo.nasa.gov/hs3/calendar.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 HWRF is on board for the BOC. Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Just hoping a piece of the Caribbean slop will break off and follow the wave up to our lawns. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 NASA flavored home made visible satellite loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Forgot that the HS3 program was due to start this summer. I believe it won't officially be up and running till August. Good stuff! http://www.nasa.gov/...3/news/hs3.html *edit* Calender and official home page of the HS3 missions - http://www.espo.nasa.gov/hs3/ http://www.espo.nasa...s3/calendar.php Hi all, I believe the first wave of forecasters will be over at Wallops Island on August 26. I'll be down there between Sept 19-Oct 7. I'll post links to the pdf from our discussions during the campaign if anyone is interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Hi all, I believe the first wave of forecasters will be over at Wallops Island on August 26. I'll be down there between Sept 19-Oct 7. I'll post links to the pdf from our discussions during the campaign if anyone is interested. Hey Mike.... I wasn't sure based on the calendar when everything would be in place to start running live missions when there was a bona fide disturbance to investigate. Don't be shy in giving us any tidbits that you can share as it would be very much appreciated. I thought the GRIP project was out of this world and have been looking forward to what the HS3/Sentinel mission would begin to uncover. Despite many of the forecasts of a 'slow' season, hopefully there are plenty of legitimate storms that will provide some great data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 NASA flavored homemade False Color Infrared Loop of Caribbean/Central America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012 2. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 1009mb low and attending trough will lift into the Yucatan Channel and continue to meander NW into the Gulf. The building ridge this weekend will relax a bit or break down allowing for a broad area of disturbed weather, or monsoonal low to drift to a position near NE Mexico/Deep S Texas. This will be a very slow process and the Euro seems to have a better handle on the synoptic pattern. The GFS is suffering from various convective feedback issues and Corpus Christi gives a great discussion concerning this. The board low pressure system looks to still be around early next week. Marine interests are the biggest concern and my hunch is we will see increased chatter from the NHC and various NWS offices around the Gulf Coastal region due to increasing wind and seas with various pressure related influences coming into play that could have an effect across a large portion of the Gulf of Mexico. This is a very complicated and complex weather pattern, so expect changes in the days ahead. Corpus Christi: AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS S TX. WEEKEND CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE. RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE WEST GULF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PAN OUT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM LATENT HEAT BUNDLING ISSUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF ACROSS THE GULF. ECMWF LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARDS S TX. MAIN VARIABLE WILL BE HOW STRONG MENTIONED RIDGE BECOMES AND IF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS DEEP S TX OR IF MOISTURE CAN INFILTRATE OUR AREA. The 06Z HWRF run for 95E also continues to 'sniff' development in the SW Gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Op Euro (from AccuWx PPV) gets precip about as far North as CRP. Euro hasn't been perfectly consistent, but more consistent between the runs than the other models, and as far as the ridge position, Euro ensemble means awfully similar to Op Euro. CIMSS analysis, has everything going for it except 20 knots of shear which only increases if it moves Westward. 6Z GFS does slowly retreat the really hostile shear to the Northern Gulf by the weekend, with favorable shear in the BoC this weekend. Which might also suggest anything would have to stay below 25ºN to develop in a meaningful way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 1009mb low and attending trough will lift into the Yucatan Channel and continue to meander NW into the Gulf. The building ridge this weekend will relax a bit or break down allowing for a broad area of disturbed weather, or monsoonal low to drift to a position near NE Mexico/Deep S Texas. This will be a very slow process and the Euro seems to have a better handle on the synoptic pattern. The GFS is suffering from various convective feedback issues and Corpus Christi gives a great discussion concerning this. The board low pressure system looks to still be around early next week. Marine interests are the biggest concern and my hunch is we will see increased chatter from the NHC and various NWS offices around the Gulf Coastal region due to increasing wind and seas with various pressure related influences coming into play that could have an effect across a large portion of the Gulf of Mexico. This is a very complicated and complex weather pattern, so expect changes in the days ahead. Corpus Christi: AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS S TX. WEEKEND CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE. RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE WEST GULF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PAN OUT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM LATENT HEAT BUNDLING ISSUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF ACROSS THE GULF. ECMWF LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARDS S TX. MAIN VARIABLE WILL BE HOW STRONG MENTIONED RIDGE BECOMES AND IF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS DEEP S TX OR IF MOISTURE CAN INFILTRATE OUR AREA. The 06Z HWRF run for 95E also continues to 'sniff' development in the SW Gulf... I couldn't agree more with this analysis. Taking a look at time-longitude plot of 200 hPa Velocity Potential (henceforth VP200) anomalies, you can see in the analysis eastward propagating positive and negative VP200 anomalies. These eastward propagating anomalies are associated with different phases of a strong eastward propagating convectively-coupled Kelvin wave. The warm colored anomalies represent upper-level convergence, while the cooler colored anomalies represent upper-level divergence. I have filtered this data for eastward propagting Kelvin waves (e.g., eastward wavenumbers 1-10, equiv. depths of 8-inf., period of 2-20 days), to highlight the location of the Kelvin waves (in contours). The shading is the same as the figure above: While the convectively active phase of the CCKW at the longitude of Africa (0-45E; cool colored contours) appears to be attenuating a bit, the GFS forecast (first plot) shows westward propagating anomalies once in forecast mode. This forecast suggests strong upper-level divergence (proxy for active convection) over Africa in the 5-7 day period, and strong convergence (suppressed convection) over the Indian Ocean. This type of pattern would cause NOAA's version of Wheeler and Hendon's (2004) RMM phase space diagram with GFS forecast to rapidly grow into RMM phase 1: Guys, be very weary of this forecast!! It is important to check the forecast to see if it is creditable. My favorite way is to look at time-lonigute plots. That being said, I don't buy the GFS forecast. My RMM phase space diagram (using 200hPa and 850 hPa zonal winds and 200VP anomalies) show a brief strengthening in RMM phase 8, but has since then continued it's counterclockwise motion into RMM phase 1. This would suggest that India will finally get some much needed rains! Futher, potential for Atlantic tropical cyclones shall remain in an enhanced state through late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 The GFS Ensembles as well as the Operational Euro continue to advertise a large broad low pressure over the Western Gulf. HPC Model Diagnostics Discussion prior to the full Euro run... ...SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL REMAINS A STG OUTLIER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY THAT EMANATES OUT OF THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND MOVES TWD THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO BY FRI. HOWEVER...THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED ON ALL THE MDLS BY THE END OF THE PD. THE 12Z UKMET AND ESP THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL MDLS POSITION THEIR LOW NORTH OF THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CAMP...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL THE FARTHER SOUTH BY FRI. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE FARTHER SOUTH CAMP AT LEAST THROUGH THIS PD...SO WILL LEAN TWD THE RELATIVELY MORE CONSISTENT 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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