wxmx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Very different solution with the 18z GFS ...something in between would be the best for a chance of a hurricane. I still doubt we'll get one from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Very different solution with the 18z GFS ...something in between would be the best for a chance of a hurricane. I still doubt we'll get one from it. 18Z ensembles are still mainly Mexican coast, and only a couple of perturbations ever get 1000 mb or stronger. That is good, 18Z landfall East of here puts my yard on the drier side, looks like storm totals barely over an inch... Edit to add: 12Z NoGaps strong TS near MMMA would be exciting for the forum, and probably bering rain th the lawn, but if I am not mistaken, the last major NOGAPS upgrade was 1998, and the last parameter tweak was 2003, so I'm not getting too excited on win/win, forum excitement and some rain for my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 The next item on the agenda post Carlotta will be the disturbed weather/broad low pressure system the models have been ‘sniffing’ for days in the Bay of Campeche. A Tropical Wave axis moved off the Yucatan overnight into the Bay of Campeche and will continue to spread NW toward the Mexican Gulf Coast. Moisture from former Hurricane Carlotta has spread over the mountains in the mid to upper levels while deep tropical moisture works NW from the Western Caribbean into the Southern Gulf. PW's increase to the 2-2.5+ range along the Gulf Coast. The monsoonal trough has lifted N with Carlotta and some vorticity in the mid levels will spread E in the light Westerly flow from the Pacific. The guidance generally agree that a broad low pressure will form near Vera Cruz and slowly meander N along Gulf Coast Mexico toward NE Mexico/Deep South Texas and long fetch E and SE flow of the Gulf will be located on the E side of that developing broad low pressure. My hunch is that this area of disturbed weather will never full tighten up (aka Slopgyre) and will remain broad in nature and provide a good shot at some increased rainfall for Coastal Texas and Louisiana. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Even more whacky fun at Hour 192 lobotomy. Sadly, most of the rain would be East of Houston area lawns and gardens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I have been wanting to take a weekend vacation in Galveston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Even more whacky fun at Hour 192 lobotomy. Sadly, most of the rain would be East of Houston area lawns and gardens. Port Aurthor/ Sabine pass agian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 As much fun as GFS and Canadian would bring, I'll need a trained professional to explain how this doesn't wind up in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 As much fun as GFS and Canadian would bring, I'll need a trained professional to explain how this doesn't wind up in Mexico. Troughs in both coasts and a big ridge in the center of the CONUS, yeah I can see your point...only possibility I can see is if the retrograding piece of energy that's gonna sling up the energy from the EPac stalls or slows down significantly over TX, weakening the ridging... other than that, the synoptic setup screams MX or very deep S TX. The GFS/CMC have been very inconsistent with that...and the Euro has had a weak low into MX for many runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 The afternoon NWS Texas chatter regarding next week and the Bay of Campeche potential... Houston/Galveston: THE MAIN IDEA FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HOLDS TRUE IN THIS ONE... THAT OF A NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING WEST AND AFFECTING OUR MARINE AND SOUTHERN FA COUNTIES FROM AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN THE CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN MESSAGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGAIN ALL POINTING TO AN EARLY WEEK HEIGHT WEAKNESS CHANNEL MOVING RIGHT OVER US FROM THE NW`ERN GULF...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE SOUTH & EAST FA POPS TO LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATE WEEK FORECAST FOR THE EVOLVING BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW IS STILL ON PER ALL MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS BEING THE AGGRESSORS OF TAKING THIS CLOSED-OFF LOW/CIRCULATION RIGHT UP THE GULLY AND IMPACTING OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. NHC HAS DOWNPLAYED THESE LATEST RUNS AS (THE GFS FOR INSTANCE) ARE SO DEVIANT FROM THE EARLIER 06Z RUN OF TAKING THIS SYSTEM TO THE UPPER MEXICO COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE CIRCULATION MORE BROAD AND DIFFUSE. SO...A WAIT AND SEE...BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY BECOMING A SITUATION WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO NEXT WEEK. Austin/San Antonio: MOST MODELS WANT TO GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE CANADIAN TAKES IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK ON SATURDAY WHILE THE NOGAPS TAKES IT NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL GO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY...THEN POPS WOULD DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL LOW. Corpus Christi: .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF IS PROGD TO MOVE W TO SW THROUGH THE EXTENDED BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S TX. MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AS THEY STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH 20-30 PERCENT ON MON AND 20-40 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FCSTG EITHER A SFC TROF/OPEN WAVE OR A CLOSED LOW DVLPG IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT MOVES N TO NE INITIALLY BY MID WEEK. THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A BROAD LOW DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHICH BRINGS MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO S TX. IF THE SYSTEM DOES BECOME A CLOSED LOW...THE DIRECTION WILL DETERMINE IF S TX SEES ABUNDANT RAINFALL OR NO RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS THE REASONING FOR LEAVING POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH FINE TUNING EXPECTED AS TIME PROGRESSES. AS FOR WINDS...REGARDLESS IF THIS SYSTEM DVLPS INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM OR JUST REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE...AM EXPECTING A NE DIRECTION TO DVLP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. DID NOT GO AS STRONG AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT DID INCREASE SEAS BY ONE TO TWO FEET DUE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 The afternoon NWS Texas chatter regarding next week and the Bay of Campeche potential... Thanks for compiling these, Steve-- it was great to have them all in one place. The Houston/Galveston one is the hawtest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Thanks for compiling these, Steve-- it was great to have them all in one place. The Houston/Galveston one is the hawtest. De nada. New Orleans was interesting with their reasoning... HEADING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THAN THE EURO. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL...WENT ABOUT 70 PERCENT GFS AND 30 PERCENT EURO. THIS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CARLOTTA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS MERGER OCCURS...A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY...WITH MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE STRONG RIDING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT THE SPREAD OF CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY...AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND...DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Attention turns to the Bay of Campeche during the coming week. Guidance has been very suggestive on developing a broad low pressure within the monsoonal trough for many days. The remnants of Carlotta along with an area of disturbed weather moving out of the Western Caribbean combined with relaxing wind shear and falling pressures as well as a favorable upper air pattern providing for anticyclonic out flow are the ingredients needed in a recipe to develop a tropical disturbance. Currently a 1015mb Upper Ridge is positioned just S of Monterrey, MX. Along the EC, a trough has reached the Keys and NATL ridging is forecast to shift W into the Western Basin. Satellite imagery suggests deep tropical moisture extends from the EPAC on E into the Western N Atlantic Basin. Shear is still rather strong across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf, but all guidance forecast a relaxing of wind shear over the SW Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the coming week. With deep tropical moisture in place and such a broad surface low slowly meandering N to NNW out of the SW Gulf, daily long fetch E to SE flow will keep rainfall in the forecast most if not all of the upcoming work week. What will need to be monitored is the potential for heavy rainfall. The favored areas would be Coastal Texas/SW Louisiana and along the NE Mexican Gulf Coast. The fly in the ointment is whether a closed surface low will fully develop as the GFS has suggested or remain an open wave. The 00Z Euro for the first time has ‘sniffed’ the possibility of a closed low developing. At this time it is my hunch a broad surface low will develop within the monsoonal trough with deep tropical moisture moving inland along and E of the low pressure center which appears to be very slow to move and finally slowly slide inland in Deep S Texas/NE Mexico later next weekend/early during the week of the 25th. All bets are off should a more defined and developed closed, vertically stacked system finally form as we near next weekend. HPC: OVER LOWER LATITUDES... MODELS/ENSEMBLES STILL ANTICIPATE MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR PSBL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO THOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING THAN SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE NRN GULF SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN IS THE ONE OUTLIER SOLN THIS CYCLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Been picking up heat content recently Last week Yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Very nice increase in moisture over the Caribbean. Might help a slopgyre system to get going in the BOC, but still highly skeptical about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 What Gulf storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 If too much of the incoming Caribbean energy gets drawn north prematurely by the east coast trough, then there may not be a whole lot left for the Gulf. This is something the 12z GFS and most notably the CMC are alluding to. I'm not saying this is correct, but at the very least the Caribbean wave will enhance rain chances in south Florida a bit more than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 My 2/0/0 for June will not pan out. I'm glass third full optimistic on a minimal named tropical storm however, may depend exactly when the aircraft flies into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Visible satellite imagery would seem to confirm CIMMS analysis of 20 to 30 knots shear, which should prevent development. Has low/mid level vorticity, and low level convergence. Upper divergence is meh. Proximity to the coast can't be helping. TLH morning sounding of 1.8" isn't bone dry by any means, (actually plenty juicy for usual Texas sea breeze afternoon activity, and probably higher than climo for mid-June) but also not a strong favorable. GFS and NAM track the vort Westward w/o significant development, boh also look to try to spin up a hybrid low in the Atlantic, and the GFS puts a TD or maybe a minimal TS Chris into Northern Tamilipaus next Saturday. That is lemonized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 My 2/0/0 for June will not pan out. I'm glass third full optimistic on a minimal named tropical storm however, may depend exactly when the aircraft flies into it. Might get another quickie off the SE coast or in the BOC, but conditions aren't encouraging for a classic tropical system yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Bunch of strung out moisture from the BOC to Bahamas on the ECMWF Nothing gets a chance to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 17, 2012 Author Share Posted June 17, 2012 OK, so is that a W-Gulf cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I know its just the CMC but I love the last run just need it to still be headed north and not NE at the end of the run..... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012061712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 OK, so is that a W-Gulf cancel? Rain in Tamaulipas, even from a slop gyre, is always a good thing. If it reaches Houston area lawns, even better. But YouTube quality video, yeah, cancel/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Rain in Tamaulipas, even from a slop gyre, is always a good thing. If it reaches Houston area lawns, even better. But YouTube quality video, yeah, cancel/ 18z GFS is not realistic...low in the BoC for a week with a huge anticyclone on top and it doesn't develop? yeah right. Looks like the Caribbean energy won't make it to the W GoM, so it's more Carlotta's left overs there. Competing energy in the Euro, hence the lack of development...but on the GFS the Caribbean energy is very weak and mostly sheared out in the E GoM/Bahamas, with the best upper level conditions in the W GoM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 0z runs looks like the Caribbean TW energy splits, with a piece going ENE towards Cuba/S FL/Bahamas and shearing out, and another one crossing the Yucatan and heading for the MX/TX border...this would be a scenario where there is a better chance of development and models would underplay it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 0z runs looks like the Caribbean TW energy splits, with a piece going ENE towards Cuba/S FL/Bahamas and shearing out, and another one crossing the Yucatan and heading for the MX/TX border...this would be a scenario where there is a better chance of development and models would underplay it. As you said earlier, anything that makes it under the GOM ridging beyond 2-3 days will have to be watched as it heads westward. The 0Z Euro looks a tad more encouraging for the WGOM low. - Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Upon closer inspection, the 0Z CMC is also slower with handing off most of the energy to the EC trough. It could be trending back toward a more reasonable scenario. We saw this with Carlotta for a couple days. It was by far the western most model, and was therefore taking none of the remnant moisture into the BOC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 0z runs looks like the Caribbean TW energy splits, with a piece going ENE towards Cuba/S FL/Bahamas and shearing out, and another one crossing the Yucatan and heading for the MX/TX border...this would be a scenario where there is a better chance of development and models would underplay it. Agree. The 00Z Euro throws a bone, albeit weak. My hunch still remains that this will be a broad monsoonal gyre slowly meandering N to NW for the SW Gulf as the EPAC vorticity crosses the Isthmus of Tehuantepec along with the Western Caribbean disturbance embedded within the monsoonal trough. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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