HurricaneJosh Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Going back to an earlier topic... I much prefer ENSO neutral years over La Nina or El Nino. The last couple of La Ninas have been such big flops in terms of chase action, I'm starting to feel that way, too. I feel like I always get all jazzed up about a La Nina, and it never yields the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24 KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Just some brief 3-day history: Link (15 mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well...that was fast I guess svr and tropical season started early this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 Looks like it ain't gonna happen. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It was going nicely for a few hours yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 It was going nicely for a few hours yesterday. Yep-- it had that convective blowup near the low center. Looked like it was a go. Faked us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Anyone know of a radar site for Brazil? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Anyone know of a radar site for Brazil? Thanks in advance! Strange place to post this question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Strange place to post this question. I mean, on an Atlantic tropical theme ... lol. I didn't want to start a new thread. I figured someone in here might know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 I mean, on an Atlantic tropical theme ... lol. I didn't want to start a new thread. I figured someone in here might know. Except for a freak incident a couple of years ago, the S Atlantic isn't really a tropical cyclone region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Except for a freak incident a couple of years ago, the S Atlantic isn't really a tropical cyclone region. lol I know that! I meant tropical as in latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 There is an invest for a naked swirl in the south Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 There is an invest for a naked swirl in the south Atlantic. South of the Equator South Atlantic? It would be the season for the rare Catarina-ish storm. I don't see anything at the NRL satellite site or http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ , not yet, anyway... http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/global/mediterranean/vapor/20120212.2200.msg2.wv.fd.x.jpg has nothing obvious South of the Equator... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Aforementioned rare Hurricane Catarina. Unofficial name, I believe, the Brazilian state it made landfall. Will check Wiki to confirm and edit if needed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM 12/1145 UTC 38.0S 45.7W TOO WEAK INVEST 12/0545 UTC 37.2S 46.9W ST2.5 INVEST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM 12/1145 UTC 38.0S 45.7W TOO WEAK INVEST 12/0545 UTC 37.2S 46.9W ST2.5 INVEST Woot!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I know nothing of long lead time season outlooking, but a forecast neutral to warm (but not excessively warm) ENSO and most of the Atlantic at or above average temperature, I am more than glass half full more interesting than last season, I doubt the same number of TCs, but I suspect closer to North America, and a better ration of hurricanes to named storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Ouch... This would imply a high pressure regime? Looks pretty la nina'ish with the strong bermuda high. Last year, Euro was forecasting below normal MSLP and look how that worked out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 This would imply a high pressure regime? Looks pretty la nina'ish with the strong bermuda high. Last year, Euro was forecasting below normal MSLP and look how that worked out... 1. That is a May-June-July image, so it doesn't have much bearing on the heart of tropical season and 2. the European model forecast for lower than normal MSLP in the basin verified quite nicely last year, so I'm not sure what you are getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 1. That is a May-June-July image, so it doesn't have much bearing on the heart of tropical season and 2. the European model forecast for lower than normal MSLP in the basin verified quite nicely last year, so I'm not sure what you are getting at. Here is the forecast june/august predicting well above pressures just about basin wide. (Not pretty) Just takes one as always. Just for comparison purposes here is what it forcasted last season at peak around the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 1. That is a May-June-July image, so it doesn't have much bearing on the heart of tropical season and 2. the European model forecast for lower than normal MSLP in the basin verified quite nicely last year, so I'm not sure what you are getting at. I'm getting at the distinct lack of gulf hurricanes and major hurricanes, as well as the late-start of the season. Serious biz....and thanks for bringing up the timeframe of the map, I completely overlooked that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Riptide take a look again i updated the mslp maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Riptide take a look again i updated the mslp maps. Yeah, I'm still not all that interested in JJA, since it's well documented that June and July don't have much bearing on ASO hurricane activity, but that certainly doesn't give warm fuzzies about where we're headed. FWIW, the GFDL seasonal model is showing a below normal season, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The ECMWF (see above the seasonal MSLP maps, the various ENSO predictions) seems to go from a very weak cold ENSO to near normal JJA through JAS. And even the latest MSLP map doesn't look pessimistic for Florida and up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Riptide take a look again i updated the mslp maps. Interesting, hard to put faith in such long-range forecasts and if it's the opposite of what happened last year, that's progress... I know, climatologically, last year was above normal but it underperformed in relation to my expectations and previous years, a black cat per se in a decade full of strong hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Yeah, I'm still not all that interested in JJA, since it's well documented that June and July don't have much bearing on ASO hurricane activity, but that certainly doesn't give warm fuzzies about where we're headed. FWIW, the GFDL seasonal model is showing a below normal season, too. Below warm AMO normal or seriously below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Below warm AMO normal or seriously below normal? I think it was below 1995-2011 normal and near 1851-2011 normal, but I need to look again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think it was below 1995-2011 normal and near 1851-2011 normal, but I need to look again Inactive compared to 1995-2011 and slightly inactive compared to 1982-2011 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/hyhufs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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