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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part I


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Now that it is the season to use Alan's RaleighWx site for Euro 850 mb vorticity maps in the tropics, I'd say this would be an excellent time to hit his PayPal and keep this valuable resource running.

Speaking off, Euro has a weak tropical wave moving into the Northwest Gulf w/ no signs of development in 10 days...

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0Z GFS and LOLGAPs both suggest Florida action from the Gulf in 8 or 10 days. Even Euro has a strong wave (depression) but it misses Florida, this run.

Given the expected synoptic set up, I'd expect anything that does form to head west toward MX/TX.

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0Z GFS and LOLGAPs both suggest Florida action from the Gulf in 8 or 10 days. Even Euro has a strong wave (depression) but it misses Florida, this run.

It looks like a good amount, if not the majority, of the incipient vorticity and low-level high theta-e air comes from the East Pac. So until we know what's going to happen with 94E, I'll remain sceptical of any western Caribbean development.

Anything that does form would probably be close to land, and as Adam said, most likely head west, which wouldn't translate to much time over water.

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Part homerism plus it doesn't have a 3 as the leading number...

...and the Euro is pretty similar...but 10 days are way out there, especially that close to the landmasses (10 day Cape Verde cyclones verify a bit more, I would think)

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Agree with the above.

Very skeptical of any Caribbean development due to the fact that the vort and trigger for development looks to come from the EPAC. These situations are very delicate and don't always yield the most interesting cyclones (IE Alma/Arthur in 2008).

All the upward motion will mean very little if we don't have something that can stay over water and actually organize.

Arthur/Alma

800px-Arthur_2008_track.png

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Watching the low-pressure system off the East Coast for potential development. Pressure falls have been significant and winds are gusting over 20 mph occasionally according to my weather station. If anything tries to get going, it would most likely be a slow process given the origin of the low and the continental airmass.

ruc00hr_sfc_ptnd.gif

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This will be my 'homer' post of the day for the Bay of Campeche potential development next week. Regardless of development, it's beginning to look wet across the Western Gulf... ;)

OZ GFS does water my lawn, new Euro too far South. Some things I want from the tropics and sub-tropics, classic Cat 4 or Cat 5 satellite imagery from anywhere in the basin (or the world, really), rain for my lawn, major hurricane making daylight landfall in Florida with lots of development, good road network, and ability to get fairly close to the coast w/o drowning videographers in the storm surge, or, of course, as a guy born in Flushing, Queens, NY, 1938 redux.

But it is only June, so not getting depressed even if Euro verifies and not a rain maker for my lawn. Ensembles seem to support their operational, I just suspect Euro probably closer to fact. But as long as 1 perturbation shows a 1000 mb or stronger low that could rain on my lawn, Glass 3/19th full optimistic.

post-138-0-86868200-1339677850_thumb.gif

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Latest disco out of Houston -

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

342 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN GULF...EASTERLY FLOW STEERING THIS WAVE(S)

TOWARDS OUR COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERN FA/MARINE LOWER-END CHANCE

POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-JUNE. THE ENSEMBLE TRENDS TOWARDS GENERALLY

WEAKER RIDGING...OR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EVENTUALLY FALLING WITHIN A

(HEIGHT) WEAKNESS CHANNEL. THIS MESHES WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING A

NORTHERN GULF EASTERLY WAVE WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COAST. NAM12 HAS

A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING INTO OUR WATERS SUNDAY. THE

GFS SOLUTION STILL DEVELOPS A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION /WEAK SFC

LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND

...CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ALSO PICKS UP

ON THESE LOWER SFC PRESSURES AND...ALBEIT MORE BROAD AND WEAK...DOES

MOVE THIS FEATURE UP THE MEXICO COAST THROUGH DAY 10. FWIW...THE

NOGAPS ALSO DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT

HR 144. ALL OF THIS TRANSLATES TO AN EARLY WEEK SOUTHEAST-TRANSITIONING

-TO-EASTERLY FETCH THAT WILL PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE INTO AN ALREADY

UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE SOLUTIONS GAIN MORE CONSISTENCY IN

THE COMING DAYS THEN EXPECT A BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM

WITHIN A WEEK AND HEIGHTENED SE TX RAIN/ISO STORM PROBABILITIES.

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OZ GFS does water my lawn, new Euro too far South. Some things I want from the tropics and sub-tropics, classic Cat 4 or Cat 5 satellite imagery from anywhere in the basin (or the world, really), rain for my lawn, major hurricane making daylight landfall in Florida with lots of development, good road network, and ability to get fairly close to the coast w/o drowning videographers in the storm surge, or, of course, as a guy born in Flushing, Queens, NY, 1938 redux.

But it is only June, so not getting depressed even if Euro verifies and not a rain maker for my lawn. Ensembles seem to support their operational, I just suspect Euro probably closer to fact. But as long as 1 perturbation shows a 1000 mb or stronger low that could rain on my lawn, Glass 3/19th full optimistic.

:o

Latest disco out of Houston -

http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

342 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN GULF...EASTERLY FLOW STEERING THIS WAVE(S)

TOWARDS OUR COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERN FA/MARINE LOWER-END CHANCE

POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-JUNE. THE ENSEMBLE TRENDS TOWARDS GENERALLY

WEAKER RIDGING...OR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EVENTUALLY FALLING WITHIN A

(HEIGHT) WEAKNESS CHANNEL. THIS MESHES WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING A

NORTHERN GULF EASTERLY WAVE WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COAST. NAM12 HAS

A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING INTO OUR WATERS SUNDAY. THE

GFS SOLUTION STILL DEVELOPS A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION /WEAK SFC

LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND

...CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ALSO PICKS UP

ON THESE LOWER SFC PRESSURES AND...ALBEIT MORE BROAD AND WEAK...DOES

MOVE THIS FEATURE UP THE MEXICO COAST THROUGH DAY 10. FWIW...THE

NOGAPS ALSO DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT

HR 144. ALL OF THIS TRANSLATES TO AN EARLY WEEK SOUTHEAST-TRANSITIONING

-TO-EASTERLY FETCH THAT WILL PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE INTO AN ALREADY

UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE SOLUTIONS GAIN MORE CONSISTENCY IN

THE COMING DAYS THEN EXPECT A BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM

WITHIN A WEEK AND HEIGHTENED SE TX RAIN/ISO STORM PROBABILITIES.

:o :o

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It's interesting the fragile equilibrium of the Atlantic/MJO relationship. Too many/strong MJO waves and you get an El Niño, few/weak ones and upper level divergence/instability could be non conducive close to the landmasses. 2005 was a perfect example of a good balance, and may be one of the reasons (along with others) neutral ENSO has a little more storms, on average, than La Niñas.

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Some of the chatter from Texas/LA NWS offices this morning regarding the Western Gulf potential next week:

Dallas/Ft Worth:

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE

GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO

IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BY THURSDAY...MODELS START

TO DIVERGE. THE GFS NOW TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON A MUCH

MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND RECURVES IT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND SHUNTS IT WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. IF THE GFS

IS RIGHT...THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIODS WILL BE WET BUT SINCE THIS

IS A NEW WRINKLE I WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND ADD NO POPS TO

THE FORECAST. IF THE ECMWF STARTS TO AGREE WITH THAT TRACK...THE

LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDING POPS LATE NEXT WEEK.

Lake Charles:

THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGH

PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST

WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A MOIST SOUTH TO SE FLOW. A MID LVL

RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO TX AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE

SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL SLOWLY

SHOVE THE WEAK SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER LA SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME

NW GULF OR PERHAPS JUST TO THE COAST OF LA BEFORE IT DEEPENS AND

RETRO GRADES INTO S TX. WITH THE SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW IN VICINITY

OF THE CWA AND WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE

AREA AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE

EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK WINDS

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS

BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND LOWERING PRESSURE WELL TO THE

SOUTH. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE

COASTAL WATERS.

Corpus Christi:

A MID/UPPER LEVEL

DISTURBANCE IS PROG TO RETROGRADE ACROSS W GULF TOWARDS CWA OVER THE

WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS TO

LOWER AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY TO OCCUR...AND WITH

LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD

DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TRACK OF

MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH GFS TAKING VORT MAX INTO HOUSTON WHILE

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO S TX. THE ECMWF/CMC SOLUTION

WOULD USUALLY BRING US SIGNIFICANT PRECIP BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE

WILL STILL BE LACKING TO AN EXTENT AND THUS HAVE ONLY GONE WITH

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SUN AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP

MAY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS SAID DISTURBANCE PLACES S TX IN SLIGHTLY

MORE FAVORABLE DPVA REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER

MOISTURE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES FOR THE MIDDLE AND

LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SURGE OF DEEP

TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS S TX LATE NEXT WEEK AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES ARE ALL

BRINGING THE SYSTEM/DISTURBANCE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE

MORE ORGANIZED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN

CHANCES FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA /AND ADJACENT

MARINE AREAS/. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

SYSTEM NEXT WEEK BEARS WATCHING. TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE

NORMAL FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A MODERATE TO AT OR JUST

BELOW NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS BY LATE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO INCREASED

PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

Brownsville:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODELS BECOMING

NICELY CONSISTENT ON OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE

CONTINUES TO GET SQUEEZED WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH TRAPPED ACROSS

LOUISIANA CUTS OFF AND RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF

OVER THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST IN THIS AREA FROM

THAT FEATURE...AND WITH LIGHTER WINDS...THE SEABREEZE WILL HAVE A

BETTER SHOT AND PRODUCING CONVECTION AND SHOWERS FOR MOST OF NEXT

WEEK. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE

THAT ALL MODELS ARE TRYING TO WRAP UP IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE

WEEK AND DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST.

WHILE THE MODELS MAKE THIS FEATURE LOOK EXCITING...IT IT WAY TOO

EARLY TO IMPLY ANYTHING TROPICAL OUT OF THIS FEATURE OR TO NAIL

DOWN THE TIMING OR LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE 8 DAYS OUT.

Houston/Galveston:

LONGER RANGE BEGINNING TO LOOK WET. WEAKNESS/EASTERLY WAVE ON THE

SOUTH SIDE OF THE MEAN SFC-700MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE TOWARDS SE TEXAS. WEAK UPPER TROF AT

500-250MB REMAINS CLOSE BY AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE SFC FEATURE PWATS

CLIMB AND SE TX IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR LIFT SO 30/40 PERCENT

POPS SEEM PRUDENT. BOTH GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL ECMWF MOS RAISE POPS

FURTHER FOR MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FROM

POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE. STILL WAY TOO

EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL

TOO FAR OUT (LATE NEXT WEEK!) TO FINE TUNE TIMING OR LOCATIONS SO

BROAD BRUSH APPROACH SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. GFS RAISES PWAT VALUES

TREMENDOUSLY WHILE ECMWF IS MORE RESTRAINED. WENT GENERALLY WITH A

2 PARTS ECM AND 1 PART GFS BLEND IN THE EXTENDED.

post-32-0-32227100-1339761255_thumb.gif

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As some have been alluding to earlier, there is a distinct possibility that the vorticity associated with Carlotta will be able to cross the Chivela Pass (A lower gap in the Mountains in the Serra Madre in Mexico) and perhaps develop further in the Gulf of Mexico.

345d090.png

This synoptic scenario has happened before. The best case study worth looking at was what happened with the development of TD 11E which crossed Mexico and then became TS Hermine in 2010. The GFS illustrates the cross gap movement of the cyclonic vorticity.

2gu0eth.gif

Anomalous westerly flow is currently and will continue to affect the East Pacific basin for the next 3-5 days. During this time, the cyclonic vorticity originally associated with Carlotta will begin to shift back to the east and move into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. While traditionally it is hard for a vorticity maximum to survive across the higher terrain of Mexico, this lower pass is an exception to the rule. This mainly works not due to advection, but rather the development of gap wind flow when a large mass is forced through a small area such as the Chivela Pass. The wind increase is due to the increased pressure gradient of forcing a larger mass in a smaller area. When the winds reach the Gulf of Mexico, cyclonic shear vorticity is produced to the northwest of the Chivela pass as the relatively light winds on the terrain blocked ocean in the West Bay of Campeche meet the relatively strong southerly winds of the gap flow directly north of the Chivela pass.

At this point, both the ECMWF and the GFS are showing this type of gap flow evolution. The GFS is more intense in comparison to the ECMWF with the development of the new vortex over the Gulf of Mexico, although the ECMWF does depict something that looks like a Tropical Depression in the same region. I'll tip my hat to the ECMWF owing to its superior resolution over Central America which would probably allow it to capture such an event more realistically. Bottom line though is that this is probably a likely outcome to the current synoptic regime with some type of gyre/depression developing over Central America and the Gulf of Mexico in the medium range.

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One thing to add on the synoptic setup is that what eventually breaks the ridge over the N GoM and then loops back to the east and north what is left of Carlotta in the models is a piece of energy (mid /upper level low) left behind by the trough there. As it retrogrades to the west, the flow on it's base hooks up Carlotta and slings her over the southernmost BoC trough the Tehuantepec isthmus. The better the low level energy can thread the needle trough the Chivela pass, as alluded by Phil, the better the chance of reformation in the BoC.

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I'm keeping an eye on the thing south of Pensacola, it has definate rotation and if it keeps up it may become an invest

Visible satellite imagery would seem to confirm CIMMS analysis of 20 to 30 knots shear, which should prevent development. Has low/mid level vorticity, and low level convergence. Upper divergence is meh. Proximity to the coast can't be helping. TLH morning sounding of 1.8" isn't bone dry by any means, (actually plenty juicy for usual Texas sea breeze afternoon activity, and probably higher than climo for mid-June) but also not a strong favorable.

GFS and NAM track the vort Westward w/o significant development, boh also look to try to spin up a hybrid low in the Atlantic, and the GFS puts a TD or maybe a minimal TS Chris into Northern Tamilipaus next Saturday.

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Visible satellite imagery would seem to confirm CIMMS analysis of 20 to 30 knots shear, which should prevent development. Has low/mid level vorticity, and low level convergence. Upper divergence is meh. Proximity to the coast can't be helping. TLH morning sounding of 1.8" isn't bone dry by any means, (actually plenty juicy for usual Texas sea breeze afternoon activity, and probably higher than climo for mid-June) but also not a strong favorable.

GFS and NAM track the vort Westward w/o significant development, boh also look to try to spin up a hybrid low in the Atlantic, and the GFS puts a TD or maybe a minimal TS Chris into Northern Tamilipaus next Saturday.

Whatever becomes of the BoC thingie, the Euro and GFS are now converging on Tamaulipas... looks like it will be quite wet in my neck of the woods.

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Gas up the HH planes! :arrowhead:

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR

DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD LATER

TODAY...AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW

CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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