Riptide Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Ill be in Florida on the 20th im hoping they get something when im there 06z GFS ensembles fom earlier this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 We're already posting 10+ day model progs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 We're already posting 10+ day model progs? Its the place to discuss anything related to the tropics correct..? Anything that long range in any model carries poor skill which is perfectly understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Its the place to discuss anything related to the tropics correct..? Anything that long range in any model carries poor skill which is perfectly understood. I mean, yes, of course. But every year I struggle to see the point of posting something that everyone agrees has little to no value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 I mean, yes, of course. But every year I struggle to see the point of posting something that everyone agrees has little to no value. Back in the day we have always had a balance of 'weenie' like charts and expertise analysis throughout the season. I see no reason for it to change and become StormVista like.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 I think it's ok being it the start of the season. It becomes even more pointless and annoying by late August where every single run of your favorite model shows a hurricane past day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 I think it's ok being it the start of the season. It becomes even more pointless and annoying by late August where every single run of your favorite model shows a hurricane past day 10. Exactly. We're in this typical dead period with little or nothing to talk about and before you know it we will have 'season cancel' posts. 300+ charts are harmless until as you said later in the season when every run will show something. With that said I'll never give up my sub 900 HWRF graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Exactly. We're in this typical dead period with little or nothing to talk about and before you know it we will have 'season cancel' posts. 300+ charts are harmless until as you said later in the season when every run will show something. With that said I'll never give up my sub 900 HWRF graphics. That being said, the NAM should be verboten if it differs from any other model, no matter the time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Agreement between main MJO models is even better today (time sensitive graphic). EPac and WNAtl fireworks could start as early as late next week (first the EPac, then the WCarib/GoM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 That being said, the NAM should be verboten if it differs from any other model, no matter the time range. Only 4 years ago the NAM and CMC saw what become barely Tropical Storm Edouard forming a run or two before the big boys, the GFS and Euro. And I remember a local forum pro-met suggest I was a weenie for posting a post-truncation off hour GFS run showing snow in Houston in December 2008. I think we all know what happened there. Wondering if NAM might be ok for non-tropical origin development if polar low or old front is coming from well within the domain. Resolution is good, I don't know enough about model physics, (or different physics packages, I have no clue how the ARW works, for example) but what prevents the NAM from being semi-accurate on development from non-tropical sources that start well inside the domain? You want controversy- I remain as convinced as ever that heat potential maps are over-rated for storms moving with alacrity, and only crawlers like Mitch or Wilma off Mexico actually benefit from high heat potential. Unless some warm eddy had broken off the loop current and was right offshore Texas, there would seem no way that 1900 or 1915 could have happened. Yet they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Its the place to discuss anything related to the tropics correct..? Anything that long range in any model carries poor skill which is perfectly understood. We all should have a good idea of the pitfalls of using deterministic guidance, but there is some value in looking at the ensemble spread to give an idea of the overall uncertainty. Lets look at the 234 hour ensemble plot showing both 700 hPa heights and vorticity with the height uncertainty shaded. Note that we see with the relative area of lower heights in the East Pacific where there is high uncertainty in the 700 hPa height values. This is mainly related to the overall intensity of the features (several of the individual members are depicting a significantly stronger TC than a broad low pressure area). Compare that to the relatively low uncertainty associated with the other broad 700 hPa low over the Western Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula. This means that the models are mostly in agreement with the intensity (a weak low, probably not a TC). Note that the maximum error is not centered over the closed height line, which indicates the largest uncertainty is possibly related to the position of the feature (with some members further out into the Bahamas perhaps). Note the overall pattern as well, which you can infer much better in the long range than the typical fickleness of sub-synoptic scale features such as TCs. The ridge in the east could probably be forecasted with relative confidence, while the trough in the west is much more of a wildcard, as the position is highly uncertain (note how the height spread increases on the edges of the mean trough position over California). So based on a quick look at the ensembles, are take home points should be. 1. Two weak lows, one in the EPAC basin and another in the ATL basin, although the EPAC low has uncertainty skewed towards a stronger TC. 2. The ATL low uncertainty is due to positional error and not intensity. 3. The longwave pattern suggests a ridge over the Eastern United States with relatively low uncertainty, but the position of the West Coast trough is highly uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kylemacr Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 I don't know if you have time, but the Albany team is putting a lot of good products and I, at least, would benefit from having a sort of a webpage FAQ for the products that you guys are outputting. I know Paul's site and your site, but I haven't spent enough time with anything except Paul's forecasts to help with my operational TCG forecasts. If you message me a list of questions that you think people might have, I can make that happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 00z ECMWF, GFS, GEFS, CMC, and NOGAPS all have something developing in the Caribbean or Gulf Next week. 00z GGEM For S&Gs NOGAPS by 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Starts out in the EPAC, but really shifts and deepens once it reaches the Atlantic side. Beautiful ridge on top of the disturbed area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Hey. WooHoo!! | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 That NOGAPS New England low is actually non-tropical, just for clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 7 of 20 12Z GFS perturbations show 1000 mb or stronger low in Carib/SE Gulf/Florida in 10 days, 3 of those 996 or below, I am glass quarter optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 I see data came in from a flight over the northern Gulf of Mexico, was this a training flight or was it sent out on an investigate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 I see data came in from a flight over the northern Gulf of Mexico, was this a training flight or was it sent out on an investigate? Could be training...I see some training data from the other day plus a dropsonde near Puerto Rico yesterday...then some aircraft recon obs stretching from Puerto Rico to the Gulf today. Could be just taking obs on the transit back to CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Could be training...I see some training data from the other day plus a dropsonde near Puerto Rico yesterday...then some aircraft recon obs stretching from Puerto Rico to the Gulf today. Could be just taking obs on the transit back to CONUS. Training missions are on the up tick with staff arriving for summer deployment. I had a lengthy conversation with a friend that is a pilot for the 53rd RECON Group yesterday at a gathering and he departs in two weeks for his training flights before deploying during the month of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Looking ahead to next weekend in the longer range, a broad area of low pressure is suggested across the W Caribbean and possibly the Bay of Campeche as heights fall and lowering pressures increase from the EPAC on E into the Western North Atlantic Basin. The monsoonal trough looks to start lifting N from Central America and these features were noted the HPC this morning. ACROSS THE TROPICS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BECOME LOW ENOUGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO INDUCE A BROAD SURFACE LOW/AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD. RIDGING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BRINGS THE PROMISE OF RENEWED TROPICAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF MEXICO ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING THREE PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT. SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS CONCERNING THE FIRST OF THESE AREAS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 SlopgyreTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 SlopgyreTM It does look really big and messy. What is that-- two closed isobars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 It does look really big and messy. What is that-- two closed isobars? With multiple vorticity centers. Hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 My master's thesis is actually on these types of systems and I did a poster back at the tropical AMS conference (if you are interested, I have a link on my website with more information). One of key factors that will be interesting to look for is the development of persistant low-level westerly flow across the East Pacific in the next week. A convectively coupled kelvin wave is already making its way across the East Pacific as we speed, which is already setting the table as a westerly wind burst (WWB) will follow in its wake. The ITCZ is also forecasted to shift northward and move over Central America, which is also another characteristic of these types of disturbances. Still a lot of time to watch this evolve, but these types of circulations have the potential to be catastrophic rain makers across Central America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 With multiple vorticity centers. Hawt. The one off Pensacola would be the exciting one. Just when they finished repairing the dry wall and replacing the carpets. Just one model, not too worried for the Redneck Riviera yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 SlopgyreTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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