OSUmetstud Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I hardly see the NOAA outlook as useful for risk management purposes..but how would putting out a deterministic storm count change that? I see at as more of a gauge of the state of the developing science than as a useful product. We don't know where the storms are going to be. We have the private sector with mets like HM and Adam for medium range forecasting to point out specific periods and locations as having an elevated risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I hardly see the NOAA outlook as useful for risk management purposes..but how would putting out a deterministic storm count change that? I see at as more of a gauge of the state of the developing science than as a useful product. We don't know where the storms are going to be. We have the private sector with mets like HM and Adam for medium range forecasting to point out specific periods and locations as having an elevated risk. I believe gauging uncertainty in a proper way by starting with a deterministic forecast and displaying the uncertainty in percentages would be more useful because they are tangible numbers you can put your hands on and understand. The uncertainty percentages would certainly gauge the state of the science as well. Sure there is the private sector, but not all consumer bases for this product can afford such services... especially emergency managers in cash-strapped areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Someone posted this on another board. Pretty much speaks for itself. Track record of NOAA May Predictions: 2005 Prediction: 12 to 15 tropical storms ACTUAL: 28 2006 Prediction: 13-16 ACTUAL: 10 2007 Prediction: 13-17 ACTUAL: 17 2008 Prediction: 12-16 ACTUAL: 16 2009 Prediction: 9-14 ACTUAL: 11 2010 Prediction: 14-23 ACTUAL: 19 2011 Prediction: 12-18 ACTUAL: 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Someone posted this on another board. Pretty much speaks for itself. Track record of NOAA May Predictions: 2005 Prediction: 12 to 15 tropical storms ACTUAL: 28 2006 Prediction: 13-16 ACTUAL: 10 2007 Prediction: 13-17 ACTUAL: 17 2008 Prediction: 12-16 ACTUAL: 16 2009 Prediction: 9-14 ACTUAL: 11 2010 Prediction: 14-23 ACTUAL: 19 2011 Prediction: 12-18 ACTUAL: 19 5 out of 7...that's around 71% (mighty close to the 70% in the forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Someone posted this on another board. Pretty much speaks for itself. Track record of NOAA May Predictions: 2005 Prediction: 12 to 15 tropical storms ACTUAL: 28 2006 Prediction: 13-16 ACTUAL: 10 2007 Prediction: 13-17 ACTUAL: 17 2008 Prediction: 12-16 ACTUAL: 16 2009 Prediction: 9-14 ACTUAL: 11 2010 Prediction: 14-23 ACTUAL: 19 2011 Prediction: 12-18 ACTUAL: 19 Taking the means and discounting the "huge" spreads that only NOAA uses, gives: 14 -28....100% under 15 -10.....50% over 14 -16.....14% under 12 -11.......9% over 19 -19.......0% diff 15 -19......21% under Not bad discounting the outlier 2005 year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 meanwhile, the "stillborn carribean invest" is up to 40% hwrf is nailing the track http://hurricanecity.com/ love the map updates on that site, especially best-performing models great teamwork with tropicalatlantic.com (think live recon mapping genius) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 A major upgrade to the HWRF took place today. It will be interesting to see how it performs this year. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 A major upgrade to the HWRF took place today. It will be interesting to see how it performs this year. http://www.emc.ncep....php?branch=HWRF Can't wait to see it put to work during the season. The upgrade sounds very extensive. Not sure if Wundergorund has the upgraded version or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I believe gauging uncertainty in a proper way by starting with a deterministic forecast and displaying the uncertainty in percentages would be more useful because they are tangible numbers you can put your hands on and understand. The uncertainty percentages would certainly gauge the state of the science as well. Sure there is the private sector, but not all consumer bases for this product can afford such services... especially emergency managers in cash-strapped areas. that just seems like aesthetics since it's saying exactly the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 New reanalysis batch was made public... from season 1931-1935. Highlights: * 15 new storms added, and 4 removed * 1933 was added 2 storms, but removed 2 and another which was previously acknowledged as 2 different storms have been analyzed as a single one. Overall loss of 1 storm so total for 1933 is now 20 * 1933 loss in quantity but gained in quality, bumped from 10 hurricanes to 11 and 2 cat 5 were reanalyzed...a Bahama mama and a Caribbean cruiser. * Tampico's cyclone twins(which destroyed most of the city in 1933) were bumped and made identical twins...95kts/960mb, up from 65 and 85kts. * No changes to Labor day hurricane. This changes plus Atlantic season 2011 are now reflected in my hurricane data tool: http://db.hellohelp....torm_search.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Looks like we are in for an extended period of -NAO... It's highly likely the tropics will see a boost in SSTAs. Also, negative SOI is not making much difference in the ENSO regions...and is forecasted to go positive soon, with anomalous trade winds across most of the ENSO regions. My former pessimism for the Atlantic hurricane season has modified some, and I now expect a near normal to just above hurricane season. 14/7/3 sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Im seeing an interesting area in the western Carribean in the exact same area where Beryl came from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Im seeing an interesting area in the western Carribean in the exact same area where Beryl came from Indeed... the ECMWF does keep the Caribbean unsettled for practically the next week but nothing ever becomes of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looks like we are in for an extended period of -NAO... It's highly likely the tropics will see a boost in SSTAs. Also, negative SOI is not making much difference in the ENSO regions...and is forecasted to go positive soon, with anomalous trade winds across most of the ENSO regions. My former pessimism for the Atlantic hurricane season has modified some, and I now expect a near normal to just above hurricane season. 14/7/3 sounds about right im still thinking a very solid season 13/8/3 and i didnt expect 2 preseason storms. what was your previous numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 im still thinking a very solid season 13/8/3 and i didnt expect 2 preseason storms. what was your previous numbers? 11/5/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 14/7/3 will be a nice season. i guess ill change mine to 15/8/3 with the 2 preseason storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 GFS in the 10-15 day time frame looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 GFS in the 10-15 day time frame looks decent. No real signficant development thus far on the models just real unsettled in the caribbean. Pretty substantial surge of mositure for florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Please note, the 2012 NATL tropical/hurricane forecast contest is now open for business at: and Mallow will return to score the contest. You need to enter by Sunday evening (June 3) to get started, with a seasonal and June forecast, then you update with new monthly forecasts and seasonal adjustments each month until November 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 And... with two named storms already under our belt-- including a near-hurricane landfall at Jacksonville, FL!!-- the 2012 NATL hurricane season officially starts! Woo hoo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND 3...RESPECTIVELY. THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS: NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION ------------------------------------------------------------- ALBERTO AL BAIR- TOE LESLIE LEHZ- LEE BERYL BER- RIL MICHAEL MY- KUHL CHRIS KRIS NADINE NAY DEEN- DEBBY DEH- BEE OSCAR AHS- KUR ERNESTO ER NES- TOH PATTY PAT- EE FLORENCE FLOOR- ENCE RAFAEL RAH FAH ELL- GORDON GOR- DUHN SANDY SAN- DEE HELENE HEH LEEN- TONY TOH- NEE ISAAC EYE- ZIK VALERIE VAH- LUR EE JOYCE JOYSS WILLIAM WILL- YUM KIRK KURK THE ATLANTIC SEASON HAS ALREADY GOTTEN OFF TO A QUICK START...WITH TROPICAL STORMS ALBERTO AND BERYL FORMING DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1908 THAT TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES DEVELOPED BEFORE 1 JUNE. TROPICAL STORM BERYL...WHICH CAME ASHORE NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH EARLY ON 28 MAY...IS THE STRONGEST PRE-JUNE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST. A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS. A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION... AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5. ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I wish our name list was more exciting this year. All the names are from the original 1982 list except Gordon (Gilbert), Joyce (Joan), and Kirk (Keith). No "Chris" has ever been a significant hurricane. Debby is a yawn along with Florence and Gordon and Helene. Here's looking forward to Hurricane Fernand in 2013 and Hurricane Gonzalo in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 C'mon, Gordon 1994 was pretty cool This board would have been a mess with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 When is the board not a mess? Just sayin... Welcome to Season 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 When is the board not a mess? Just sayin... Welcome to Season 2012. Compared to Wunderground, this board is like an Ivy League library during finals week. That being said, I look forward to the stupidity when the GFS 300 hrs+ makes a swirl somewhere during hurricane quiet time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 June 1st is always a little bittersweet. Besides remembering 2009 w/o Popo's Playa Party Pad on Galveston Island, and hoping for a decade of just 40 knot storms locally, and daytime Charley landfalls in Florida, and maybe finally a repeat of all I missed before my 1964 birth (born in New York City!) like 1938, 1944 and Donna, the "real" hurricane season doesn't begin until August. Two usually very boring months. It'd be best to ignore the tropics. Except 2001 locally had a big sub-tropical rainstorm locally, 2003 had a hurricane landfall near the South end of the HGX CWA in July, and if you ignored the tropics in June and July in 1997, you missed the season. So one does have to look at models and satellite loops in June and July, but a watched tropics rarely boils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 June 1st is always a little bittersweet. Besides remembering 2009 w/o Popo's Playa Party Pad on Galveston Island, and hoping for a decade of just 40 knot storms locally, and daytime Charley landfalls in Florida, and maybe finally a repeat of all I missed before my 1964 birth (born in New York City!) like 1938, 1944 and Donna, the "real" hurricane season doesn't begin until August. Two usually very boring months. True and when tropical activity for JJ hovers around normal, folks will start complaining and saying "this season sucks" or "this season is over". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 June 1st is always a little bittersweet. Besides remembering 2009 w/o Popo's Playa Party Pad on Galveston Island, and hoping for a decade of just 40 knot storms locally, and daytime Charley landfalls in Florida, and maybe finally a repeat of all I missed before my 1964 birth (born in New York City!) like 1938, 1944 and Donna, the "real" hurricane season doesn't begin until August. Two usually very boring months. It'd be best to ignore the tropics. Except 2001 locally had a big sub-tropical rainstorm locally, 2003 had a hurricane landfall near the South end of the HGX CWA in July, and if you ignored the tropics in June and July in 1997, you missed the season. So one does have to look at models and satellite loops in June and July, but a watched tropics rarely boils. Dude you need a cat 4 ramming down the Houston area. Then you video tape it and show us how cool it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Dude you need a cat 4 ramming down the Houston area. Then you video tape it and show us how cool it was. A Cat 2 was a royal pain in the butt, thank you. Boarding windows, no power for almost a week, missed USC-OSU game and Cowboys beating Eagles, and the beach place was ruined. Florida has a good road network, is pretty flat, one can get fairly close to the coast and still be out of the surge zone (in HOU they evac to Interstate 610 in parts of the area for majors), and, of course, post-Andrew building standards. Anyway, we have a semi-pro (still waiting to buy an i-Cyclone best of DVD collection and 3-Extra-Fat t-shirt) who videotapes the majors for us and has mad editing skills. And a YouTube account. Anyway, back to the actual weather, I will repeat what I said a few weeks ago, the warm ENSO seems to be a bit slower arriving than earlier expected, the MDR isn't super-cooler than normal, I see a near normal season with at least a couple of good long tracker storms. And the long trackers rarely get Houston. 1900 was a long tracker, but if Wiki is to be believed, was only a TS until it crossed Cuba and got into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Dude you need a cat 4 ramming down the Houston area. Then you video tape it and show us how cool it was. I beg your pardon. Perhaps you'd enjoy $6 to $10+ gasoline taking out the largest petrochemical complex in the nation, but I digress...~sigh~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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