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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part I


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I hardly see the NOAA outlook as useful for risk management purposes..but how would putting out a deterministic storm count change that? I see at as more of a gauge of the state of the developing science than as a useful product. We don't know where the storms are going to be. We have the private sector with mets like HM and Adam for medium range forecasting to point out specific periods and locations as having an elevated risk.

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I hardly see the NOAA outlook as useful for risk management purposes..but how would putting out a deterministic storm count change that? I see at as more of a gauge of the state of the developing science than as a useful product. We don't know where the storms are going to be. We have the private sector with mets like HM and Adam for medium range forecasting to point out specific periods and locations as having an elevated risk.

I believe gauging uncertainty in a proper way by starting with a deterministic forecast and displaying the uncertainty in percentages would be more useful because they are tangible numbers you can put your hands on and understand.

The uncertainty percentages would certainly gauge the state of the science as well. Sure there is the private sector, but not all consumer bases for this product can afford such services... especially emergency managers in cash-strapped areas.

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Someone posted this on another board.

Pretty much speaks for itself.

Track record of NOAA May Predictions:

2005 Prediction: 12 to 15 tropical storms ACTUAL: 28

2006 Prediction: 13-16 ACTUAL: 10

2007 Prediction: 13-17 ACTUAL: 17

2008 Prediction: 12-16 ACTUAL: 16

2009 Prediction: 9-14 ACTUAL: 11

2010 Prediction: 14-23 ACTUAL: 19

2011 Prediction: 12-18 ACTUAL: 19

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Someone posted this on another board.

Pretty much speaks for itself.

Track record of NOAA May Predictions:

2005 Prediction: 12 to 15 tropical storms ACTUAL: 28

2006 Prediction: 13-16 ACTUAL: 10

2007 Prediction: 13-17 ACTUAL: 17

2008 Prediction: 12-16 ACTUAL: 16

2009 Prediction: 9-14 ACTUAL: 11

2010 Prediction: 14-23 ACTUAL: 19

2011 Prediction: 12-18 ACTUAL: 19

5 out of 7...that's around 71% (mighty close to the 70% in the forecast)

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Someone posted this on another board.

Pretty much speaks for itself.

Track record of NOAA May Predictions:

2005 Prediction: 12 to 15 tropical storms ACTUAL: 28

2006 Prediction: 13-16 ACTUAL: 10

2007 Prediction: 13-17 ACTUAL: 17

2008 Prediction: 12-16 ACTUAL: 16

2009 Prediction: 9-14 ACTUAL: 11

2010 Prediction: 14-23 ACTUAL: 19

2011 Prediction: 12-18 ACTUAL: 19

Taking the means and discounting the "huge" spreads that only NOAA uses, gives:

14 -28....100% under

15 -10.....50% over

14 -16.....14% under

12 -11.......9% over

19 -19.......0% diff

15 -19......21% under

Not bad discounting the outlier 2005 year.

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I believe gauging uncertainty in a proper way by starting with a deterministic forecast and displaying the uncertainty in percentages would be more useful because they are tangible numbers you can put your hands on and understand.

The uncertainty percentages would certainly gauge the state of the science as well. Sure there is the private sector, but not all consumer bases for this product can afford such services... especially emergency managers in cash-strapped areas.

that just seems like aesthetics since it's saying exactly the same thing.

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New reanalysis batch was made public... from season 1931-1935.

Highlights:

* 15 new storms added, and 4 removed

* 1933 was added 2 storms, but removed 2 and another which was previously acknowledged as 2 different storms have been analyzed as a single one. Overall loss of 1 storm so total for 1933 is now 20

* 1933 loss in quantity but gained in quality, bumped from 10 hurricanes to 11 and 2 cat 5 were reanalyzed...a Bahama mama and a Caribbean cruiser.

* Tampico's cyclone twins(which destroyed most of the city in 1933) were bumped and made identical twins...95kts/960mb, up from 65 and 85kts.

* No changes to Labor day hurricane.

This changes plus Atlantic season 2011 are now reflected in my hurricane data tool:

http://db.hellohelp....torm_search.php

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Looks like we are in for an extended period of -NAO... It's highly likely the tropics will see a boost in SSTAs.

post-29-0-02407900-1338151504_thumb.gif

post-29-0-63186300-1338151504_thumb.gif

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Also, negative SOI is not making much difference in the ENSO regions...and is forecasted to go positive soon, with anomalous trade winds across most of the ENSO regions.

post-29-0-57867000-1338151542_thumb.png

My former pessimism for the Atlantic hurricane season has modified some, and I now expect a near normal to just above hurricane season. 14/7/3 sounds about right

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Looks like we are in for an extended period of -NAO... It's highly likely the tropics will see a boost in SSTAs.

post-29-0-02407900-1338151504_thumb.gif

post-29-0-63186300-1338151504_thumb.gif

post-29-0-14548400-1338151505_thumb.gif

Also, negative SOI is not making much difference in the ENSO regions...and is forecasted to go positive soon, with anomalous trade winds across most of the ENSO regions.

post-29-0-57867000-1338151542_thumb.png

My former pessimism for the Atlantic hurricane season has modified some, and I now expect a near normal to just above hurricane season. 14/7/3 sounds about right

im still thinking a very solid season 13/8/3 and i didnt expect 2 preseason storms. what was your previous numbers?

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Please note, the 2012 NATL tropical/hurricane forecast contest is now open for business at:

and Mallow will return to score the contest. You need to enter by Sunday evening (June 3) to get started, with a seasonal and June forecast, then you update with new monthly forecasts and seasonal adjustments each month until November 1st.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH

WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF

NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND

3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION

-------------------------------------------------------------

ALBERTO AL BAIR- TOE LESLIE LEHZ- LEE

BERYL BER- RIL MICHAEL MY- KUHL

CHRIS KRIS NADINE NAY DEEN-

DEBBY DEH- BEE OSCAR AHS- KUR

ERNESTO ER NES- TOH PATTY PAT- EE

FLORENCE FLOOR- ENCE RAFAEL RAH FAH ELL-

GORDON GOR- DUHN SANDY SAN- DEE

HELENE HEH LEEN- TONY TOH- NEE

ISAAC EYE- ZIK VALERIE VAH- LUR EE

JOYCE JOYSS WILLIAM WILL- YUM

KIRK KURK

THE ATLANTIC SEASON HAS ALREADY GOTTEN OFF TO A QUICK START...WITH

TROPICAL STORMS ALBERTO AND BERYL FORMING DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1908 THAT TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES

DEVELOPED BEFORE 1 JUNE. TROPICAL STORM BERYL...WHICH CAME ASHORE

NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH EARLY ON 28 MAY...IS THE STRONGEST PRE-JUNE

TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES

SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE

TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER

THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 1

AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE

UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED

ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL

WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS

HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE

PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...

AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS

FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL

ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT

UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL

WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE

ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE

UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO

HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE

AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT

UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER

CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS

ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED

IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER

CASE.

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I wish our name list was more exciting this year. All the names are from the original 1982 list except Gordon (Gilbert), Joyce (Joan), and Kirk (Keith).

No "Chris" has ever been a significant hurricane. Debby is a yawn along with Florence and Gordon and Helene.

Here's looking forward to Hurricane Fernand in 2013 and Hurricane Gonzalo in 2014. :D

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When is the board not a mess? Just sayin... :P Welcome to Season 2012.

Compared to Wunderground, this board is like an Ivy League library during finals week. That being said, I look forward to the stupidity when the GFS 300 hrs+ makes a swirl somewhere during hurricane quiet time.

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June 1st is always a little bittersweet. Besides remembering 2009 w/o Popo's Playa Party Pad on Galveston Island, and hoping for a decade of just 40 knot storms locally, and daytime Charley landfalls in Florida, and maybe finally a repeat of all I missed before my 1964 birth (born in New York City!) like 1938, 1944 and Donna, the "real" hurricane season doesn't begin until August. Two usually very boring months.

It'd be best to ignore the tropics.

Except 2001 locally had a big sub-tropical rainstorm locally, 2003 had a hurricane landfall near the South end of the HGX CWA in July, and if you ignored the tropics in June and July in 1997, you missed the season.

So one does have to look at models and satellite loops in June and July, but a watched tropics rarely boils.

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June 1st is always a little bittersweet. Besides remembering 2009 w/o Popo's Playa Party Pad on Galveston Island, and hoping for a decade of just 40 knot storms locally, and daytime Charley landfalls in Florida, and maybe finally a repeat of all I missed before my 1964 birth (born in New York City!) like 1938, 1944 and Donna, the "real" hurricane season doesn't begin until August. Two usually very boring months.

True and when tropical activity for JJ hovers around normal, folks will start complaining and saying "this season sucks" or "this season is over". :lol:

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June 1st is always a little bittersweet. Besides remembering 2009 w/o Popo's Playa Party Pad on Galveston Island, and hoping for a decade of just 40 knot storms locally, and daytime Charley landfalls in Florida, and maybe finally a repeat of all I missed before my 1964 birth (born in New York City!) like 1938, 1944 and Donna, the "real" hurricane season doesn't begin until August. Two usually very boring months.

It'd be best to ignore the tropics.

Except 2001 locally had a big sub-tropical rainstorm locally, 2003 had a hurricane landfall near the South end of the HGX CWA in July, and if you ignored the tropics in June and July in 1997, you missed the season.

So one does have to look at models and satellite loops in June and July, but a watched tropics rarely boils.

Dude you need a cat 4 ramming down the Houston area. Then you video tape it and show us how cool it was.

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Dude you need a cat 4 ramming down the Houston area. Then you video tape it and show us how cool it was.

A Cat 2 was a royal pain in the butt, thank you. Boarding windows, no power for almost a week, missed USC-OSU game and Cowboys beating Eagles, and the beach place was ruined.

Florida has a good road network, is pretty flat, one can get fairly close to the coast and still be out of the surge zone (in HOU they evac to Interstate 610 in parts of the area for majors), and, of course, post-Andrew building standards.

Anyway, we have a semi-pro (still waiting to buy an i-Cyclone best of DVD collection and 3-Extra-Fat t-shirt) who videotapes the majors for us and has mad editing skills. And a YouTube account.

Anyway, back to the actual weather, I will repeat what I said a few weeks ago, the warm ENSO seems to be a bit slower arriving than earlier expected, the MDR isn't super-cooler than normal, I see a near normal season with at least a couple of good long tracker storms. And the long trackers rarely get Houston. 1900 was a long tracker, but if Wiki is to be believed, was only a TS until it crossed Cuba and got into the Gulf.

post-138-0-31129100-1338561742_thumb.gif

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Dude you need a cat 4 ramming down the Houston area. Then you video tape it and show us how cool it was.

I beg your pardon. :huh: Perhaps you'd enjoy $6 to $10+ gasoline taking out the largest petrochemical complex in the nation, but I digress...~sigh~

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